ACC Discussion

RamblinRed

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Dancecard is one of my 2 fav Bracketology sites. The other is team rankings which does a complete S curve.
Dance card is extremely good and i like the percentage that basically shows what percentage of teams got bids in prior years based on the current profile got bids. Sort of shows you where the cut really is likely to be (note the last couple ins are well under 50% - they move to out as upsets happen in the conference tourneys - or they lose a couple of games).

What I find interesting is both sites have NCSU in by far the best position of the 3 ACC middle teams.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/
 
orientalnc

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I was unaware of the team rankings site. Thanks.

There is quite a bit of difference between the two in how they predict the ACC. Dance card has Pitt comfortably in and Miami barely in, while team ranking has both missing the tournament. Also, I noticed both have VCU as the only A-10 team in the field.

Another interesting point is the current record and projected finish. It has Pitt, Miami, and NC State all going 2-2 to finish. It also has Duke losing one more, so you have to think that will be at UNC. But, they also have UNC losing another game. I can only imagine that must be at Miami or at home to NC State. If either of those is correct, then that team will have lose 2 of 3 to middle or lower teams. I think there is something wrong with this analysis, but we shall see in due time.
 
Peacone36

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orientalnc said:
There is quite a bit of difference between the two in how they predict the ACC. Dance card has Pitt comfortably in and Miami barely in, while team ranking has both missing the tournament. Also, I noticed both have VCU as the only A-10 team in the field.
Click to expand...

That is quite a bit nonsense there. A-10 should get at least 4 teams in (VCU, URI, Davidson, Dayton) and possibly 5 if a team like GW wins the A-10 tournament (which is entirely possible). Lunardi has teams like Texas A&M and Temple in the tournament but not Davidson or URI. That is complete blasphemy IMHO.
 
kg01

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CuseJacket said:
Fun end of game controversy from Pitt/Syracuse. I'm used to no-calls like this from the NBA, not college.


FYI - no sour grapes. Pitt played a better game yesterday, but Syracuse could have stolen it with a travel call there.
Click to expand...


I was certain that was a clip from Dancing with the Stars. :eek: Not even the NBA would've let that go ... unless it was LeighBronn. :whistle:
 
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RamblinRed

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Remember with these sites they are predicting based on what would happen today, not what will happen in 3 weeks. it will change.
The projected wins and losses are all based on % of winning contests. So they are not saying they are favored in 3 and not in 1. They are adding the percentages and dividing by 4.
I think the A10 will get more than 1 in the end.
 
orientalnc

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Peacone36 said:
That is quite a bit nonsense there. A-10 should get at least 4 teams in (VCU, URI, Davidson, Dayton) and possibly 5 if a team like GW wins the A-10 tournament (which is entirely possible). Lunardi has teams like Texas A&M and Temple in the tournament but not Davidson or URI. That is complete blasphemy IMHO.
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I was a little surprised as well. Then I did some very shallow research on ESPN and think I know the reason. Dayton's SOS is 145 and they don't really have any quality wins, unless you count Texas A&M or Ole Miss. Davidson is even worse with an SOS of 164 and no quality wins outside the A-10. URI has an SOS of 199 and also no quality wins outside the A-10.

I think you might make a case for Dayton, but the others just don't belong.
 
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orientalnc said:
I was a little surprised as well. Then I did some very shallow research on ESPN and think I know the reason. Dayton's SOS is 145 and they don't really have any quality wins, unless you count Texas A&M or Ole Miss. Davidson is even worse with an SOS of 164 and no quality wins outside the A-10. URI has an SOS of 199 and also no quality wins outside the A-10.

I think you might make a case for Dayton, but the others just don't belong.
Click to expand...

Wow. No quality wins except Texas A&M or Ole Miss? You think GT is worse than them?
 
Peacone36

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I did the same thing after i wrote the post and was surprised at Davidsons "resume". URI isnt really that impressive numbers wise but having seen them a couple times I think they are easilly one of the top 60-whatever teams are in the tournament now. I think GW is underrated.
 

RamblinRed

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I really like what CBSSports does with their team by team comparisons. It really allows you to see how teams have the resume they have. Pick any 2 teams and see how they breakdown.
Dayton was fine until losing to Duquesne - that put a sub 200 loss on their resume. Dayton's issue was they don't have many good wins. TX A&M on a neutral court is their best win. Their other 3 Top100 wins are at home.

Davidson is worse. They don't have any good OOC wins. They had 2 sub 100 losses.
George Washington has spent most of the last 2 weeks playing themselves off the bubble and will probably need to win the A10 Tourney to get in.
The committee tends to like to see road wins and it also tends to rate Top 50 wins higher - that's where the A10 teams are coming up short against some other bubble teams. I still think probably 3-4 A10 teams get in, but none can afford any losing streaks right now.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/DAYTON/DAVID
 
orientalnc

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RamblinRed said:
I really like what CBSSports does with their team by team comparisons. It really allows you to see how teams have the resume they have. Pick any 2 teams and see how they breakdown.
Dayton was fine until losing to Duquesne - that put a sub 200 loss on their resume. Dayton's issue was they don't have many good wins. TX A&M on a neutral court is their best win. Their other 3 Top100 wins are at home.

Davidson is worse. They don't have any good OOC wins. They had 2 sub 100 losses.
George Washington has spent most of the last 2 weeks playing themselves off the bubble and will probably need to win the A10 Tourney to get in.
The committee tends to like to see road wins and it also tends to rate Top 50 wins higher - that's where the A10 teams are coming up short against some other bubble teams. I still think probably 3-4 A10 teams get in, but none can afford any losing streaks right now.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/DAYTON/DAVID
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The problem with this the comparison isn't Dayton versus Davidson. It's either of them versus someone like Pitt or Miami. Or NC State or St John's or UCLA. Only 47 at large teams get in, so the resume has to be strong.

Dayton finishes with 2 games they should win, one tossup, and one (VCU in Richmond) they will likely lose. Unless they beat VCU, I do not see how these games help their case. Davidson has two tossups plus VCU, so their situation is similar. URI doesn't play VCU, but they do play Davidson and Dayton. So it becomes a game of A-10 musical chairs. Those three teams cannot afford to lose to anyone other than VCU. That still may not be enough.

But, Dayton is in the best position to get a bid.
 

RamblinRed

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Oriental, I wasn't necessarily trying to compare Dayton to Davidson. Just wanted to point out the site that does a nice job of showing you resumes. I agree with your points.
Dayton is primarily in a don't lose to bad team mode. Do that and enough other teams will probably slip up for you to get in, but hardly a guarantee. Win over VCU on road would be a huge win for them.

Davidson just has to win games.
 
Peacone36

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Wow, didn't realize the colonials were playing so poorly losing to bot Duquesne and Richmond recently and 1-6 in their last 7. I watched them lose to VCU the other day but they play really hard. They are most def. out unless they win the a-10 tourney and then sure Dayton and/or Davidson would be out.
 
orientalnc

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RamblinRed said:
Oriental, I wasn't necessarily trying to compare Dayton to Davidson. Just wanted to point out the site that does a nice job of showing you resumes. I agree with your points.
Dayton is primarily in a don't lose to bad team mode. Do that and enough other teams will probably slip up for you to get in, but hardly a guarantee. Win over VCU on road would be a huge win for them.

Davidson just has to win games.
Click to expand...
Both the computer generated brackets we have discussed will be changing almost daily with game results posted. I noticed that today the Dance Card has Davidson in and Miami out. Neither team played yesterday, so I not sure how the outcome of other games affected that switch.
 

RamblinRed

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FWIW, here is a really nice article by Jerry Palm on what the committee looks at and what it doesn't look at. More importantly, it includes a link to the actual team sheets that the committee uses for all 351 teams.
Biggest things to see. You do not get told what the conference record is, nor where they stand in conference. The only piece of conference data you get is your conference SoS.
More importantly, they do not even tell you when the games were played -so you can't look at last 10 (they took away that metric). Very enlightening.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...cketology-what-data-is-relevant-and-what-isnt
 
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