ACC Discussion 2020

[gtrower]

I just want to nitpick this here because this wasn't that controversial, in my opinion it was pretty clear that the Miami player went down and the ball was well short of the first down marker. We got lucky they missed some field goals, but our kicking game sucked last year too, by that logic we should have beat Pitt and UVA. We won the Miami game fair and square, we out played and smarted them. That fake punt pass for a 50 yard TD was one of the most amazing plays I have seen since I started rooting for GT 11 years ago, Miami took us lightly and we showed them the error of their ways.

Yeah I don’t think Miami even complained about the call. It was clear and correct. Crazy ending, but not controversial.

Miami was probably the better team that day - but it wasn’t by a ton. We ran really well on them and were disruptive to their offense despite giving up some chunk plays. We’ve lost a lot of games over the years b/c of the kicking game so don’t feel bad at all winning like that.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

All of those things thrill the hell outta me!

Damn straight up!

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I just want to nitpick this here because this wasn't that controversial, in my opinion it was pretty clear that the Miami player went down and the ball was well short of the first down marker. We got lucky they missed some field goals, but our kicking game sucked last year too, by that logic we should have beat Pitt and UVA. We won the Miami game fair and square, we out played and smarted them. That fake punt pass for a 50 yard TD was one of the most amazing plays I have seen since I started rooting for GT 11 years ago, Miami took us lightly and we showed them the error of their ways.

Yep. Just Miami doing Miami things. Playing down to the level of their opponents. Regarding the play you referenced, I watched it at least 5 times and he was down short of the marker. For some reason, as I faintly recall he did not plunge straight ahead but took a step back and the Tech player, (was it Carpenter?) stonewalled him. We deserved to win that game.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I wasn’t the one who originally suggested “throwing out” games. I think the concept is silly. I was simply responding to the suggestion about throwing out the Citadel game as a “woulda, shoulda, coulda” win, but if you do that, you have to do the same thing with Miami.

I completely agree that the UM game was a huge win, and in some ways “saved” the season last year. But that 2019 Miami win is nowhere close to beating UGA. I would say the 2019 UM game isn’t even close to the 2018 UM win. I’m not sure on what world squeaking a win out vs. a team that lost to Duke, FIU, LA Tech, and a 5 point win vs. Central Michigan is close to beating UGA, but I’d like to request a transfer to that world.

I know, I was just kidding but I am not kidding about wanting to beat Miami and FSU. Down here in south Georgia, they have lots of fans and they are almost as obnoxious as UGA critters.

 

[Lotta Booze]

Posting for others to see what you're referencing: https://247sports.com/Team/Georgia-Tech-9/Roster/

Good data point. The first question that jumped in my head when I saw your post was "how many of those are freshmen"?

Here our top 20:

1. Antonneous Clayton... no game reps in GT's system... resuming play after a full year off
2. Jahmyr Gibbs... no game reps in GT's system
3. Derrik Allen... no game reps in GT's system
4. Myles Sims... played last year
5. Bruce Jordan-Swilling... no game reps at current position in GT's system
6. Jeff Sims... no game reps in GT's system
7. Miles Brooks... no game reps in GT's system
8. Ryan Johnson... no game reps in GT's system
9. Jaylon King... played last year
10. James Graham... played last year
11. Jared Ivey... no game reps in GT's system
12. Marquez Ezzard... no game reps in GT's system
13. Jamious Griffin... played last year
14. Bryce Gowdy... RIP
15. Nate McCollum... no game reps in GT's system
16. Khatavian Franks... no game reps in GT's system
17. Ryan King... no game reps in GT's system
18. Tre Swilling... played last year
19. Justice Dingle... played last year
20. Michael Rankins... no game reps in GT's system

Our top talent is not just a skew toward freshmen. It's a skew toward players who don't have a single live game rep at their position for GT. Literally only 6 of our top 20 have played in a game at their current position at GT. Concede BJS, that makes 7.

Said another way, you could argue by the same data point that we're destined for the exception category (one of those teams that ends below .500) rather than the rule. Experience and college-readiness is a hurdle for the talent to play to its full potential.

The optimistic fan in me wearing gold-tinted glasses wants to point out another way it could be skewed is just look how far you have to go down to find Mason. I'm not buying that Mason isn't one of the top 50 talented players on the team. Jahaziel is our lowest ranked player while still having a ranking and Jalen Camp is only 2 spots higher than him. It's based on recruiting rankings which doesn't necessarily account for where some of these players are currently.

 

[CuseJacket]

The optimistic fan in me wearing gold-tinted glasses wants to point out another way it could be skewed is just look how far you have to go down to find Mason. I'm not buying that Mason isn't one of the top 50 talented players on the team. Jahaziel is our lowest ranked player while still having a ranking and Jalen Camp is only 2 spots higher than him. It's based on recruiting rankings which doesn't necessarily account for where some of these players are currently.

Agreed. HS recruiting rankings don't necessarily mean who is best on a college team. Same can be said for other squads.

Doubling down on my point... True freshmen should generally not be counted on to produce meaningfully year 1. Looking at the top twenty and those in bold, there are a number of guys who aren't likely to get major reps due to being a frosh or regaining their sea legs: Allen (prob in a rotation), BJS, Sims (maybe), Brooks, Ivey, Gowdy, McCollum, Franks, King, Rankins. That is 10 (50%) of our top 20. I expect most of those guys to be a factor next year and beyond.

 

[dmel25]

Agreed. HS recruiting rankings don't necessarily mean who is best on a college team. Same can be said for other squads.

Hell, Russell Wilson was a two star coming out of HS I heard and he is in the Top 3 best QBs in the NFL. HS rankings don't mean squat if you ask me, what matters is who can adapt to the different levels of football the best and work with what they have to play great.

 

[JacketOff]

Hell, Russell Wilson was a two star coming out of HS I heard and he is in the Top 3 best QBs in the NFL. HS rankings don't mean squat if you ask me, what matters is who can adapt to the different levels of football the best and work with what they have to play great.

While high school rankings don’t technically mean anything in college and beyond, they are generally pretty accurate and provide good insight on the overall potential of a player. Sure you have your outliers like Russell Wilson, JJ Watt, Michael Crabtree, etc. But they’re just that: outliers.

The best way to look at start ratings in my opinion is to think of them as a players floor, not their ceiling. Just about everyone has the same ceiling given they use their natural abilities combined with time, effort, and work put in. But not everyone has the same floor for varieties of reasons (size, work ethic, etc.)

 

[jacketup]

. Looking at the top twenty and those in bold, there are a number of guys who aren't likely to get major reps due to being a frosh

Given the eligibility free pass for this year, that may not be true.

 

[slugboy]

Yeah I don’t think Miami even complained about the call. It was clear and correct. Crazy ending, but not controversial.

Miami was probably the better team that day - but it wasn’t by a ton. We ran really well on them and were disruptive to their offense despite giving up some chunk plays. We’ve lost a lot of games over the years b/c of the kicking game so don’t feel bad at all winning like that.

Oh, they complained and disputed the call.

 

[JacketOff]

I just want to nitpick this here because this wasn't that controversial, in my opinion it was pretty clear that the Miami player went down and the ball was well short of the first down marker. We got lucky they missed some field goals, but our kicking game sucked last year too, by that logic we should have beat Pitt and UVA. We won the Miami game fair and square, we out played and smarted them. That fake punt pass for a 50 yard TD was one of the most amazing plays I have seen since I started rooting for GT 11 years ago, Miami took us lightly and we showed them the error of their ways.

Except it was controversial lol.

And yes, Tech won the game fair and square. I never said we didn’t. Once again, the only reason I brought up the Miami game was in response to “throwing out” the Citadel. We should’ve won the Citadel game, just like we should’ve lost the Miami game. 9 out of 10 times both of those games go the other way. They just happened the way they did. It’s hard for me to agree that we outplayed them when 2 of our 3 regulation scores came on a defensive touchdown and a fake punt. Did we win the game? Yes. But that’s not the point I was trying to make.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Chan was fired because he couldn't beat UGA.

Good thing we wore them out since then.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

Good thing we wore them out since then.

I mean....CPJ did beat them 3 times. That's why he got an extension

 

[dmel25]

Watching the 2013 ACC Championship between Duke and FSU, and I forgot how much the NCAA and even the announcers protected Jameis Winston and acted like he was god. He could do no wrong, talk **** to the refs, get hit while he is going out of bounds and they flag the defense, etc. I still don't get why it was like that.

 

[Jmonty71]

Why are these sportswriter's so high on North Carolina? I get it, the ACC doesn't have a lot to offer in the Coastal. But, the Tar Heels? I think Miami and VT will be better than UNC. I just don't get where this praise is coming from. I don't know... This year is going to be weird. All it takes is a few players contracting COVID and the best teams, become average. So, really hard to say how this season goes.

 

[tsrich]

Why are these sportswriter's so high on North Carolina? I get it, the ACC doesn't have a lot to offer in the Coastal. But, the Tar Heels? I think Miami and VT will be better than UNC. I just don't get where this praise is coming from. I don't know... This year is going to be weird. All it takes is a few players contracting COVID and the best teams, become average. So, really hard to say how this season goes.

UNC was good last year and their recruiting has been fantastic.

Turns out Mack was a great hire

 

[slugboy]

Why are these sportswriter's so high on North Carolina? I get it, the ACC doesn't have a lot to offer in the Coastal. But, the Tar Heels? I think Miami and VT will be better than UNC. I just don't get where this praise is coming from. I don't know... This year is going to be weird. All it takes is a few players contracting COVID and the best teams, become average. So, really hard to say how this season goes.

• UNC has had two high-ranked recruiting classes in a row. Last year, they showed a major improvement in play after one year of improved recruiting. After a second year, it’s natural to expect more improvement. They have a Sophomore QB who looked stellar his freshman year. Unless he has a sophomore slump, you’d expect at least as good as last year.
• Miami is recruiting where they normally do. This year seems like last year at Miami, and the trend of past years, with the addition of locker room issues carrying over from last year. I also think the turnover chain buzz and other things that Richt instituted are wearing off. So, with Miami, why would you expect anything better than the last couple of years?
• Here are the projected SP+ numbers for the year, including transfers and recruits: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-college-football-rankings-alabama-back-no-1. UNC is third behind Clemson and Notre Dame. Based on how they played last year and who they recruited, UNC looks stronger than VT or Miami.
• Backing the Pack looked at those numbers and the schedules. https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-s...c-get-a-break-sorry-florida-state-wake-forest. We look a lot better than last year, and better than other teams in the conference. Our schedule is horrendous, though. It’s not even the toughest in the ACC, though—FSU has those honors.
• UNC has the weakest schedule in the conference. Based on their projected strength and the “luck of the draw“, you’d expect them to win a ton of games.
• VT has a below average schedule, but not nearly as easy as UNCs. Miami has a hard schedule.
• Those numbers have us better than Wake, Syracuse, NCST, BC, and Duke.
• They also have us with three wins. We’re below average for the league, but we’re moving up towards average. You could put is in a middle blob with Louisville, NCST, Pitt, and UVA.
• At the top of the league, you have Clemson, then Notre Dame and UNC are neck and neck, then a cluster of FSU, Miami, and VT.
• Duke, BC, Wake, and Syracuse are projected to be bad.
• Duke, BC, and Syracuse are must-wins for us. After that, we’re trying to carve out three more wins. Pitt and Louisville are our best upset shots.
• Based on projections and our strength of schedule, 5 wins (which was my guess for the season) is a massively lucky overachievement. If we get to 6 wins, we’ve held every game in which we could be favored, won two solid upsets, and had one miracle.

Here are the pre-season SP+ ACC Rankings

1. Clemson. 27
2. Notre Dame. 18.5
3. UNC 16
4. Miami 12.6
5. FSU 12
6. VT 10.2
7. Louisville 6.7
8. Pitt 6.0
9. UVa 5.2
10. GT. 1.3
11. NCST 0.2
12. Duke -1.7
13. BC -2.2
14. Wake -3.7
15. Syracuse -6.4

I grouped one way earlier. You can easily draw a line between Clemson and everyone else. The next line seems to be under UNC. You might put another one between VT and Louisville.
You could put a line between UVa and us. I put a line between NCST and Duke, but part of that is that Duke went negative.

 

[VintageWreck]

Why are these sportswriter's so high on North Carolina? I get it, the ACC doesn't have a lot to offer in the Coastal. But, the Tar Heels? I think Miami and VT will be better than UNC. I just don't get where this praise is coming from. I don't know... This year is going to be weird. All it takes is a few players contracting COVID and the best teams, become average. So, really hard to say how this season goes.

And the average teams can become lowlies!

 

[VintageWreck]

• UNC has had two high-ranked recruiting classes in a row. Last year, they showed a major improvement in play after one year of improved recruiting. After a second year, it’s natural to expect more improvement. They have a Sophomore QB who looked stellar his freshman year. Unless he has a sophomore slump, you’d expect at least as good as last year.
• Miami is recruiting where they normally do. This year seems like last year at Miami, and the trend of past years, with the addition of locker room issues carrying over from last year. I also think the turnover chain buzz and other things that Richt instituted are wearing off. So, with Miami, why would you expect anything better than the last couple of years?
• Here are the projected SP+ numbers for the year, including transfers and recruits: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-college-football-rankings-alabama-back-no-1. UNC is third behind Clemson and Notre Dame. Based on how they played last year and who they recruited, UNC looks stronger than VT or Miami.
• Backing the Pack looked at those numbers and the schedules. https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-s...c-get-a-break-sorry-florida-state-wake-forest. We look a lot better than last year, and better than other teams in the conference. Our schedule is horrendous, though. It’s not even the toughest in the ACC, though—FSU has those honors.
• UNC has the weakest schedule in the conference. Based on their projected strength and the “luck of the draw“, you’d expect them to win a ton of games.
• VT has a below average schedule, but not nearly as easy as UNCs. Miami has a hard schedule.
• Those numbers have us better than Wake, Syracuse, NCST, BC, and Duke.
• They also have us with three wins. We’re below average for the league, but we’re moving up towards average. You could put is in a middle blob with Louisville, NCST, Pitt, and UVA.
• At the top of the league, you have Clemson, then Notre Dame and UNC are neck and neck, then a cluster of FSU, Miami, and VT.
• Duke, BC, Wake, and Syracuse are projected to be bad.
• Duke, BC, and Syracuse are must-wins for us. After that, we’re trying to carve out three more wins. Pitt and Louisville are our best upset shots.
• Based on projections and our strength of schedule, 5 wins (which was my guess for the season) is a massively lucky overachievement. If we get to 6 wins, we’ve held every game in which we could be favored, won two solid upsets, and had one miracle.

Here are the pre-season SP+ ACC Rankings

1. Clemson. 27
2. Notre Dame. 18.5
3. UNC 16
4. Miami 12.6
5. FSU 12
6. VT 10.2
7. Louisville 6.7
8. Pitt 6.0
9. UVa 5.2
10. GT. 1.3
11. NCST 0.2
12. Duke -1.7
13. BC -2.2
14. Wake -3.7
15. Syracuse -6.4

I grouped one way earlier. You can easily draw a line between Clemson and everyone else. The next line seems to be under UNC. You might put another one between VT and Louisville.
You could put a line between UVa and us. I put a line between NCST and Duke, but part of that is that Duke went negative.

Darn Slug.

That was good and about where I had the league through the VintageWreck sunglasses!

 

[ncjacket79]

I think the more logical conclusion from that data is that we are significantly more talented than last year which should make us significantly better than last year.

A number of those top 20 will likely not be playing much if at all until later in the season.