ACC Discussion 2020

Heisman's Ghost

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Why are these sportswriter's so high on North Carolina? I get it, the ACC doesn't have a lot to offer in the Coastal. But, the Tar Heels? I think Miami and VT will be better than UNC. I just don't get where this praise is coming from. I don't know... This year is going to be weird. All it takes is a few players contracting COVID and the best teams, become average. So, really hard to say how this season goes.
Because, (I am speculating here) the Tar Heels have something the others do not have... a talented quarterback who proved his bona fides last year. They have talent recruited by the old warhorse but then, UNC always has talent. Talent is neve the issue in Chapel Hill...winning ball games is the issue.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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  • UNC has had two high-ranked recruiting classes in a row. Last year, they showed a major improvement in play after one year of improved recruiting. After a second year, it’s natural to expect more improvement. They have a Sophomore QB who looked stellar his freshman year. Unless he has a sophomore slump, you’d expect at least as good as last year.
  • Miami is recruiting where they normally do. This year seems like last year at Miami, and the trend of past years, with the addition of locker room issues carrying over from last year. I also think the turnover chain buzz and other things that Richt instituted are wearing off. So, with Miami, why would you expect anything better than the last couple of years?
  • Here are the projected SP+ numbers for the year, including transfers and recruits: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-college-football-rankings-alabama-back-no-1. UNC is third behind Clemson and Notre Dame. Based on how they played last year and who they recruited, UNC looks stronger than VT or Miami.
  • Backing the Pack looked at those numbers and the schedules. https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-s...c-get-a-break-sorry-florida-state-wake-forest. We look a lot better than last year, and better than other teams in the conference. Our schedule is horrendous, though. It’s not even the toughest in the ACC, though—FSU has those honors.
  • UNC has the weakest schedule in the conference. Based on their projected strength and the “luck of the draw“, you’d expect them to win a ton of games.
  • VT has a below average schedule, but not nearly as easy as UNCs. Miami has a hard schedule.
  • Those numbers have us better than Wake, Syracuse, NCST, BC, and Duke.
  • They also have us with three wins. We’re below average for the league, but we’re moving up towards average. You could put is in a middle blob with Louisville, NCST, Pitt, and UVA.
  • At the top of the league, you have Clemson, then Notre Dame and UNC are neck and neck, then a cluster of FSU, Miami, and VT.
  • Duke, BC, Wake, and Syracuse are projected to be bad.
  • Duke, BC, and Syracuse are must-wins for us. After that, we’re trying to carve out three more wins. Pitt and Louisville are our best upset shots.
  • Based on projections and our strength of schedule, 5 wins (which was my guess for the season) is a massively lucky overachievement. If we get to 6 wins, we’ve held every game in which we could be favored, won two solid upsets, and had one miracle.
Here are the pre-season SP+ ACC Rankings
  1. Clemson. 27
  2. Notre Dame. 18.5
  3. UNC 16
  4. Miami 12.6
  5. FSU 12
  6. VT 10.2
  7. Louisville 6.7
  8. Pitt 6.0
  9. UVa 5.2
  10. GT. 1.3
  11. NCST 0.2
  12. Duke -1.7
  13. BC -2.2
  14. Wake -3.7
  15. Syracuse -6.4
I grouped one way earlier. You can easily draw a line between Clemson and everyone else. The next line seems to be under UNC. You might put another one between VT and Louisville.
You could put a line between UVa and us. I put a line between NCST and Duke, but part of that is that Duke went negative.
That is one way of looking at it but I would draw a line under UNC as tier one, so to speak. A second line under Virginia Tech. The last line would go under NCST but I am not sure there is that much difference from #10 Georgia Tech to #15 Syracuse.
 

tsrich

Jolly Good Fellow
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414
I thought the same thing, but it was the first game of the year and we play them late in the season so a lot could change.
They also easily beat a bowl team from last year. Not a good team, but not a complete patsy
 

lv20gt

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um...UAB? They disbanded their entire program a number of years and then restarted. I'd say a complete patsy.
That's a very silly way to evaluate a program instead of just looking at how they have actually done since the restart.
 

gville_jacket

Jolly Good Fellow
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107
um...UAB? They disbanded their entire program a number of years and then restarted. I'd say a complete patsy.
I actually follow the UAB program as my second team behind Tech (have some personal ties). In the 3 seasons they've been back, they've been bowl eligible every year, have not won less than 8 games, won their division 2 out of the 3 years (missed the 3rd year by 1 game), and already won their conference. Last year their defense ranked 9th in FBS for yards/game. They are no patsy.
 

forensicbuzz

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I actually follow the UAB program as my second team behind Tech (have some personal ties). In the 3 seasons they've been back, they've been bowl eligible every year, have not won less than 8 games, won their division 2 out of the 3 years (missed the 3rd year by 1 game), and already won their conference. Last year their defense ranked 9th in FBS for yards/game. They are no patsy.
Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you. Tell me who they've beaten that matters. They may not be a patsy to their peers, but Miami is not their peer.
 

JacketOff

Ramblin' Wreck
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949
Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you. Tell me who they've beaten that matters. They may not be a patsy to their peers, but Miami is not their peer.
I’d say that UAB was probably better than anybody Tech beat last year, and that includes Miami.
They beat LA Tech who also beat Miami, but got stomped by FAU, who also stomped FIU, who also beat Miami.
UAB could’ve competed in the Coastal last year.
 

gville_jacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
107
Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you. Tell me who they've beaten that matters. They may not be a patsy to their peers, but Miami is not their peer.
Did you watch the game?! If they don’t keep making stupid procedural penalties, they could have won that game. They largely kept King in check who was being named as a dark horse Heisman candidate. It was a 3 point game in the middle of the 3rd. Miami’s depth is what won that game, not their top end talent. Those teams play 10 times, UAB wins at least 4.
 
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