Just browsed through KenPom. We're #75. In the "Luck" column, we're ranked #351. Of course we are, LOL.
Current ACC KenPom rankings (number of times we play them this year):
Duke (2): 7
North Carolina (1): 14
Virginia (2): 17
Florida State (2): 20
Louisville (1): 22
Virginia Tech (1): 26
Clemson (2): 27
NC State (1): 39
Syracuse (1): 40
If the tournament started today, 9 ACC teams would likely get in.
Miami (1): 46
Georgia Tech: 75
Notre Dame (2): 81
Boston College (1): 85
Pittsburgh (1): 90
Wake Forest (2): 123
Of Note:
Kentucky: 36
UAB: 96
Nebraska: 107
Georgia State: 110 (only loss is to Mercer)
Mercer: 146 (they are 5-0 though)
Florida A&M: 319
Delaware State: 352
Assume we go 5-2 OOC.
Assume we lose to anybody inside the top 27 in the ACC, we go 9-11. That won't get it done.
We play 6 teams in the 20s. We're going to need to win some of those obviously. Our OOC resume will be a net negative, even if we win the rest. 11-9 would land us at 16-11. I think that would actually get us in, because our strength of schedule the rest of the way would move our rating way up if we were able to do that.