ACC Discussion 2019-20

Deleted member 2897

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17-9 NC State up to #48 in KenPom.
18-7 Virginia up to #50 in KenPom.

That is probably currently the 5 ACC teams in the NCAAT (after Duke, Louisville, and Florida State).

We've inched up to #76. Still not great, but definitely better than the #100+ we were about a month ago. If we can go 4-1 down the homestretch, I think we'll be in the low 50s. Still would probably need 2 wins in the ACCT to be a strong bubble team. I don't think 17-14 gets us in. 19-15 would mean we finished by winning 8 of our last 10 games and our KenPom would probably be at 50 or a hair under. I think that would get us into the last 4 in kind of position.

Its doable based on who we have left to play, but we have no margin for error. The more likely outcome is we end up being 1 of like 7 ACC teams who go to the NIT.
 

JacketOff

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bwelbo said:
17-9 NC State up to #48 in KenPom.
18-7 Virginia up to #50 in KenPom.

That is probably currently the 5 ACC teams in the NCAAT (after Duke, Louisville, and Florida State).

We've inched up to #76. Still not great, but definitely better than the #100+ we were about a month ago. If we can go 4-1 down the homestretch, I think we'll be in the low 50s. Still would probably need 2 wins in the ACCT to be a strong bubble team. I don't think 17-14 gets us in. 19-15 would mean we finished by winning 8 of our last 10 games and our KenPom would probably be at 50 or a hair under. I think that would get us into the last 4 in kind of position.

Its doable based on who we have left to play, but we have no margin for error. The more likely outcome is we end up being 1 of like 7 ACC teams who go to the NIT.
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Just getting to the NIT after all the mini-disasters this team has had this year would be good enough for me. I’ll give credit where credit is due, CJP and Co. have held the team together much better than I thought was possible, especially after the Ball State game. That BSU blowout was one of the most embarrassing effort levels I’ve ever seen out of a GT sports team. It looked like everyone had given up. If we had just been able to win 1 out of 3 between UGA, Ark, and BSU I would feel so much better about the team. I do think I said this in a post earlier in the year, but it’s actually going to play out like I thought it would. Finish strong, make the NIT, everyone feels good about the state of GT basketball, then get the hammer dropped again and all of the sanctions are held up for next year. It would be just about the most GT vs. NCAA thing ever.
 

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Possible finishing standings in the ACC:
Louisville (13-3), Duke (12-3), Florida State (12-3) - separation for 1/2/3 - they are likely all locked in.

Virginia (10-5): @Pitt, VT, Duke, @Miami, Louisville. That smells like a 3-2 finish = 13-7
NC State (8-7): FSU, @UNC, Pitt, @Duke, Wake. That smells like a 2-3 finish = 10-10 (plus we own the tiebreaker)
Clemson (7-8): @BC, @GT, FSU, @VT, GT. That smells like a 2-3 finish = 9-11 (tiebreaker against us in play)
Notre Dame (7-8): Miami, @BC, @Wake, FSU, VT. That smells like a 3-2 or 4-1 finish, plus they own the tiebreaker = 10-10 or 11-9. We need to finish ahead of them.
Syracuse (7-8): GT, @Pitt, UNC, @BC, @Miami. That could be a sweep, but we'll say 4-1 = 11-9.
Georgia Tech (7-8): @Syracuse, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, @Clemson. 3-2 or optimist case 4-1 = 10-10 or possibly 11-9.
Boston College (7-9): Clemson, ND, Syracuse, @FSU. Yuck, maybe 1-3? Could be an o-fer = best case of 8-12.

If these things happen, the final standings would be:
1, 2, 3: Louisville, Duke, FSU in some order
4: Virginia (13-7)
5: Syracuse (11-9) ...owns tiebreaker for now over ND...and likely over us.
6: Notre Dame (11-9) ...owns tiebreaker over us.
7: Georgia Tech (10-10) ...even if we finish 11-9 we don't have the tiebreaker with ND and probably wouldn't w/Syracuse.
8: NC State (10-10) ...we own the tiebreaker.
9: Clemson (9-11) ...tiebreaker in play with us if we both finish like 10-10.
10: Boston College (8-12)

VT, Miami, and Pitt have 6 wins. They all play very tough finishing schedules, so I don't see how they win 3 or 4 of them.

11, 12, 13: Pitt, VT, Miami (7-13)
14) Wake Forest (5-15)
15) UNC (5-15) ...they may get last place by losing a tie breaker to Wake Forest LOLOLOL.

If we finish #6, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #14/#11 winner from the day before.
If we finish #7, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #15/#10 winner from the day before.
If we finish #8, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #9 who would also be in their first game.

2 morals of the story:
1) We don't want to finish #10 or worse, as we'd have to play the first day, and then face a fresh team on day 2 if we win.
2) Finishing inside the top 7 is also a very big advantage, as we'd face a team that just played the night before.
 

Deleted member 2897

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bwelbo said:
Possible finishing standings in the ACC:
Louisville (13-3), Duke (12-3), Florida State (12-3) - separation for 1/2/3 - they are likely all locked in.

Virginia (10-5): @Pitt, VT, Duke, @Miami, Louisville. That smells like a 3-2 finish = 13-7
NC State (8-7): FSU, @UNC, Pitt, @Duke, Wake. That smells like a 2-3 finish = 10-10 (plus we own the tiebreaker)
Clemson (7-8): @BC, @GT, FSU, @VT, GT. That smells like a 2-3 finish = 9-11 (tiebreaker against us in play)
Notre Dame (7-8): Miami, @BC, @Wake, FSU, VT. That smells like a 3-2 or 4-1 finish, plus they own the tiebreaker = 10-10 or 11-9. We need to finish ahead of them.
Syracuse (7-8): GT, @Pitt, UNC, @BC, @Miami. That could be a sweep, but we'll say 4-1 = 11-9.
Georgia Tech (7-8): @Syracuse, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, @Clemson. 3-2 or optimist case 4-1 = 10-10 or possibly 11-9.
Boston College (7-9): Clemson, ND, Syracuse, @FSU. Yuck, maybe 1-3? Could be an o-fer = best case of 8-12.

If these things happen, the final standings would be:
1, 2, 3: Louisville, Duke, FSU in some order
4: Virginia (13-7)
5: Syracuse (11-9) ...owns tiebreaker for now over ND...and likely over us.
6: Notre Dame (11-9) ...owns tiebreaker over us.
7: Georgia Tech (10-10) ...even if we finish 11-9 we don't have the tiebreaker with ND and probably wouldn't w/Syracuse.
8: NC State (10-10) ...we own the tiebreaker.
9: Clemson (9-11) ...tiebreaker in play with us if we both finish like 10-10.
10: Boston College (8-12)

VT, Miami, and Pitt have 6 wins. They all play very tough finishing schedules, so I don't see how they win 3 or 4 of them.

11, 12, 13: Pitt, VT, Miami (7-13)
14) Wake Forest (5-15)
15) UNC (5-15) ...they may get last place by losing a tie breaker to Wake Forest LOLOLOL.

If we finish #6, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #14/#11 winner from the day before.
If we finish #7, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #15/#10 winner from the day before.
If we finish #8, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #9 who would also be in their first game.

2 morals of the story:
1) We don't want to finish #10 or worse, as we'd have to play the first day, and then face a fresh team on day 2 if we win.
2) Finishing inside the top 7 is also a very big advantage, as we'd face a team that just played the night before.
Click to expand...

Well, I had us at 10-10 - that consisted of a loss to Syracuse and a loss to Clemson. So we still have a pretty good chance of finishing top 7.
 

jayparr

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Don't get me wrong, but I noticed on at least 2 long jumpers that Devoe backed away from staying on the shooter! Both 3 pointers were made! By him backing away and going for the rebound the shot became quite clear vision of the goal. He needs to stay on the shooter and jump with 2 hands raised to block that vision. Two hands straight up not reaching to block it! Both arms up straight blocks the vision of both eyes! It truly helps in defending even a great shooter!
 

Deleted member 2897

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Here we go boys - the Final 4. Our last 4 games (KenPom):
Clemson (home + away): #63
Miami (home): #105
Pittsburgh (home): #102

I have us splitting with Clemson and winning the other 3 to finish at 10-10. That would give us the first 0.500 record in ACC play in over a decade, and a highly likely top 7 seeding for the ACCT. #8 and #9 play each other in each of their first games. #10 and lower do play-in games against the other bottom teams and then have to play a higher seed fresh the next day. #7 or better gets to play their first game against a team that just played the day before. If we go 3-1 into the ACCT and get 1 win, then we'll be 17-15 heading into round 2, guaranteed a post-season qualifying record.

Clemson is a crazy team this year:
Key Losses: Minnesota, South Carolina, Yale, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Notre Dame
Key Wins: Duke, Syracuse, Louisville (all wins at home)

Its almost like they have a better chance of winning if they play a team in the top half. But they're a pretty bad team on the road.
 
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bwelbo said:
Here we go boys - the Final 4. Our last 4 games (KenPom):
Clemson (home + away): #63
Miami (home): #105
Pittsburgh (home): #102

I have us splitting with Clemson and winning the other 3 to finish at 10-10. That would give us the first 0.500 record in ACC play in over a decade, and a highly likely top 7 seeding for the ACCT. #8 and #9 play each other in each of their first games. #10 and lower do play-in games against the other bottom teams and then have to play a higher seed fresh the next day. #7 or better gets to play their first game against a team that just played the day before. If we go 3-1 into the ACCT and get 1 win, then we'll be 17-15 heading into round 2, guaranteed a post-season qualifying record.

Clemson is a crazy team this year:
Key Losses: Minnesota, South Carolina, Yale, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Notre Dame
Key Wins: Duke, Syracuse, Louisville (all wins at home)

Its almost like they have a better chance of winning if they play a team in the top half. But they're a pretty bad team on the road.
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It's NCAAT or bust for me every year, which sucks as a GT fan, but it is what it is.

So to get there, we need to win the ACCT. With respect to ACCT seeding, I don't think it's as important as in years past because when you have a bunch of even teams, it basically comes down to good vs. bad match-ups. Since we have no clue who'll be 1-3, let along the rest of the league, the main goal should in fact be avoiding playing on day 1, which means Just. Win. (as you've stated).

Hypothetical though: Would it be better for us to have a path of 4 games, all good match-ups? Or 3 games, bad match-ups?
 
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Eh, given our track record this year, we'll probably start off with a team we don't want to play...and beat them. Follow up that win with a favorable matchup for us...and lose. That's just how it's going for us.
 

g0lftime

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Not sure we are even close to have the depth to play 3 high level games in 3 days. We have a PG that is good enough but not enough quality bench players and have not developed them. Duke and FSU are the teams to beat. Maybe Louisville.
 

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CuseJacket said:
It's NCAAT or bust for me every year, which sucks as a GT fan, but it is what it is.

So to get there, we need to win the ACCT. With respect to ACCT seeding, I don't think it's as important as in years past because when you have a bunch of even teams, it basically comes down to good vs. bad match-ups. Since we have no clue who'll be 1-3, let along the rest of the league, the main goal should in fact be avoiding playing on day 1, which means Just. Win. (as you've stated).

Hypothetical though: Would it be better for us to have a path of 4 games, all good match-ups? Or 3 games, bad match-ups?
Click to expand...

Well, if we go 4-0 to finish the season, then we enter the ACCT at 17-14 if my math is right. Beat a team that just played the day before and we're 18-14. 5 straight wins would probably drop our KenPom to 50. 1 more win is 19-14 and maybe 48-50 KenPom. I think we might be a last 4 in at that point. None of the 4 remaining games or the first game in the ACCT are against particularly good teams, so its possible. We've just been so up and down with Refs and turnovers or some whack-a-mole problem.
 

lv20gt

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CuseJacket said:
Hypothetical though: Would it be better for us to have a path of 4 games, all good match-ups? Or 3 games, bad match-ups?
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The only real "match ups" I think are bad for us are FSU and UVA. Now FSU can finish anywhere in the top 3, but UVA is basically guaranteed a 4 spot. I think it's unlikely FSU ends up #1 so unless one of them makes the finals we're unlikely to run into both imo. So give me three games please especially with the depth concerns we have.

To play UVA in their first round would be to be either the 5,12, or 13 seeds. We are currently 9th, a game out of 5th and 1.5 games ahead of 12th. To face them in the second round, if they won, we'd have to be 8th or 9th seed. So 6th or 7th seed is probably preferable. I assume we lose the tiebreakers to ND and Cuse and win them against NCSU and hold our own cards against Clemson. I don't think a 7th seed is all that improbable with how we've played.
 
tsrich

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g0lftime said:
Not sure we are even close to have the depth to play 3 high level games in 3 days. We have a PG that is good enough but not enough quality bench players and have not developed them. Duke and FSU are the teams to beat. Maybe Louisville.
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I'm expecting Wright to go on a legendary tear in the tournament, break the scoring and rebounding records, and single-handedly lead us to victory.
 

lv20gt

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tsrich said:
I'm expecting Wright to go on a legendary tear in the tournament, break the scoring and rebounding records, and single-handedly lead us to victory.
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To put in perspective what Moses would have to do to break the scoring record in 3 games; if he repeated his Syracuse performance each game for 3 games he'd still be 8 points short of the record I believe.
 
tsrich

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lv20gt said:
To put in perspective what Moses would have to do to break the scoring record in 3 games; if he repeated his Syracuse performance each game for 3 games he'd still be 8 points short of the record I believe.
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Syracuse was just Wright getting warmed up.

I figured 49 pts/g and 27 reb/g. Those would be higher but two of the games were blowouts so we rested starters the last 10 minutes.
 

YlJacket

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Louisville looks like they took lessons from us in how (not) to come out in the second half. FSU just way more aggressive
 

g0lftime

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To just win a first round game in the ACCT would be an improvement. We can do it this year. I still question why we are not dropping our appeal since we don't have a record for any post season.
 

g0lftime

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MiracleWhips said:
I think we have a legit shot at the nit
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The ACC is projected to only get 4 and maybe 5 teams in the NCAA tourney. That leaves a lot of other ACC teams with better overall records for the NIT. It is still remotely possible but we need to win most of our remaining games.
 
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