ACC Discussion 2019-20

[orientalnc]

I decided to look at the standings and see what is the likelihood for final standings after this coming week.

The top four teams are going to be the top four. There is not way for anyone to replace one of them at this point.

The next six all have a mathematical chance to fall into the bottom six. One of these six teams is going to play on Tuesday.

NC State is 9-9 and has Duke in Durham and Wake at home. They beat the Wake by nine in Winston-Salem in December and Duke by 22 at home two weeks ago.
ND is 9-9 and has FSU and VT at home. They lost to FSU by one in Tallahassee earlier this year.
Cuse is 9-9 and finishes on the road at BC and Miami. They beat BC by 26 at home earlier this year.
Clemson is 9-9 and has VT in Blacksburg and GT at home. They lost to us by 9 in Atlanta last week.
GT is 9-9 and has Pitt at home and Clemson in Clemson. We lost to Pitt by nine in Pittsburgh three weeks ago and beat Clemson by nine at home last week.
BC is 7-11 and has Cuse at home and FSU on the road. They lost to Cuse by 26 in Syracuse earlier this year.

My predictions:

NC State will not beat Duke twice this year, so they are probably going 1-1 this week.
ND will give FSU a tough game and could go 2-0 this week. I really think this is possible.
Syracuse is unlikely to go 2-0 on the road and could go 0-2. I think they will win one.
Clemson is feeling like they could be a bubble team, but could go 0-2 this week. They could also go 2-0. I think they will split these games.
GT is playing inconsistently right now, but the good is our best basketball in years. I think/hope we will win both games.
BC is going to lose to FSU for sure and maybe also to Cuse. They will be finishing no better than 10th.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

KenPom back to #75. We’ve won 4 of 5 and 5 of 7 yet have not budged an inch LOL. This includes victories over a top 10 team, Clemson, etc. Sad.

 

[lv20gt]

NT - looking at wrong column

 

[GTJake]

It's pretty amazing to me that we are tied for 5th in the ACC with four other teams.
All the other teams I have seen mentioned as on the bubble, first four in or first four out in various publications.
Not one time have I even seen us mentioned in any context, maybe it's the NCAA Sanctions, but I would think sportswriters would do their homework and know the details of the appeal.
NC State 9-9, 18-11
ND 9-9, 18-11
Syracuse 9-9 16-13
Clemson 9-9 15-13
GT 9-9, 15-14

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It's pretty amazing to me that we are tied for 5th in the ACC with four other teams.
All the other teams I have seen mentioned as on the bubble, first four in or first four out in various publications.
Not one time have I even seen us mentioned in any context, maybe it's the NCAA Sanctions, but I would think sportswriters would do their homework and know the details of the appeal.
NC State 9-9, 18-11
ND 9-9, 18-11
Syracuse 9-9 16-13
Clemson 9-9 15-13
GT 9-9, 15-14

I'm still scarred from the 1995 season (I think it was) when 4 teams tied for 1st place at 12-4. We were next and didn't get into the NCAA Tournament.

Even if we win out and win 2 games in the ACCT to get to 19-15, I still don't think we get in. I know that would be finishing 10-4 and pretty hot, and I know CJP has always hoped the committee would take into account playing the first 3rd of the season without 2 of our best players, but I just don't see it happening. Our KenPom is still somehow #75. If we finish 4-1 I don't see us breaking #60. We've just gone 4-1 beating top 10 Louisville and a decent Clemson team and our KenPom didn't budge.

 

[GTBatGirl96]

I'm still scarred from the 1995 season (I think it was) when 4 teams tied for 1st place at 12-4. We were next and didn't get into the NCAA Tournament.

Ugh, I remember this. For many seasons, I was convinced that the NCAA looked at all the standings, drew a line just above our name, and took everyone above it.

 

[MtnWasp]

Regarding the love of KenPom, I will cut and paste from the very first paragraphs of the KenPom page on their rating explanation (https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/):

"The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place. There are enough systems out there that rank teams based on what is “good” by just about any definition you can think of. So I’d encourage you to google college basketball ratings or even try the opinion polls for something that is more your style.

The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play."

In other words, the KenPom system is not designed to rate a body or work over a season. It is meant as a tool for those who like to bet the games or just make predictions. It is explicitly not a tool designed to rate how good a season a team has had.

It seems to me a lot of people are mis-using / misinterpreting this tool.

 

[MtnWasp]

I'm still scarred from the 1995 season (I think it was) when 4 teams tied for 1st place at 12-4. We were next and didn't get into the NCAA Tournament.

That was Best & Forrest's Senior year (and Harpring and Maddox's Freshmen seasons). The team was 8-8 conference and 18-12 overall. Those numbers had always gotten us in during our 9 consecutive NCAAT years. I think had we not lost to UVA in the first round of the ACCT, then we would have gotten in.

That was the year the team was so disappointed over not getting into the NCAAT that they declined an NIT bid.

 

[RamblinRed]

I'm still scarred from the 1995 season (I think it was) when 4 teams tied for 1st place at 12-4. We were next and didn't get into the NCAA Tournament.

Even if we win out and win 2 games in the ACCT to get to 19-15, I still don't think we get in. I know that would be finishing 10-4 and pretty hot, and I know CJP has always hoped the committee would take into account playing the first 3rd of the season without 2 of our best players, but I just don't see it happening. Our KenPom is still somehow #75. If we finish 4-1 I don't see us breaking #60. We've just gone 4-1 beating top 10 Louisville and a decent Clemson team and our KenPom didn't budge.

The Selection Committee does not take into account who played and who didn't. You have the wins and losses you have. They do not assume you would win if you had all your players.
They occasionally will look at injuries in terms of seeding, but not in terms of making the tournament.
To make the NCAA Tourney this team has to at least make the ACC Tourney finals.

They also don't care if you are 'hot'. They took out the last 10 metric years ago. The games you play in November are as important as the games you play in March.

 

[GTJake]

The Selection Committee does not take into account who played and who didn't. You have the wins and losses you have. They do not assume you would win if you had all your players.
They occasionally will look at injuries in terms of seeding, but not in terms of making the tournament.
To make the NCAA Tourney this team has to at least make the ACC Tourney finals.

They also don't care if you are 'hot'. They took out the last 10 metric years ago. The games you play in November are as important as the games you play in March.

Unfortunately, that is possible, but not probable.
Is there a deadline for withdrawing the Appeal ? I'm not sure I'd gamble losing post-season eligibility for next year for a NIT Bid ... especially the way we've been treated by the NCAA in past history !

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Possible finishing standings in the ACC:
Louisville (13-3), Duke (12-3), Florida State (12-3) - separation for 1/2/3 - they are likely all locked in.

Virginia (10-5): @Pitt, VT, Duke, @Miami, Louisville. That smells like a 3-2 finish = 13-7
NC State (8-7): FSU, @UNC, Pitt, @Duke, Wake. That smells like a 2-3 finish = 10-10 (plus we own the tiebreaker)
Clemson (7-8): @BC, @GT, FSU, @VT, GT. That smells like a 2-3 finish = 9-11 (tiebreaker against us in play)
Notre Dame (7-8): Miami, @BC, @Wake, FSU, VT. That smells like a 3-2 or 4-1 finish, plus they own the tiebreaker = 10-10 or 11-9. We need to finish ahead of them.
Syracuse (7-8): GT, @Pitt, UNC, @BC, @Miami. That could be a sweep, but we'll say 4-1 = 11-9.
Georgia Tech (7-8): @Syracuse, Clemson, Miami, Pitt, @Clemson. 3-2 or optimist case 4-1 = 10-10 or possibly 11-9.
Boston College (7-9): Clemson, ND, Syracuse, @FSU. Yuck, maybe 1-3? Could be an o-fer = best case of 8-12.

If these things happen, the final standings would be:
1, 2, 3: Louisville, Duke, FSU in some order
4: Virginia (13-7)
5: Syracuse (11-9) ...owns tiebreaker for now over ND...and likely over us.
6: Notre Dame (11-9) ...owns tiebreaker over us.
7: Georgia Tech (10-10) ...even if we finish 11-9 we don't have the tiebreaker with ND and probably wouldn't w/Syracuse.
8: NC State (10-10) ...we own the tiebreaker.
9: Clemson (9-11) ...tiebreaker in play with us if we both finish like 10-10.
10: Boston College (8-12)

VT, Miami, and Pitt have 6 wins. They all play very tough finishing schedules, so I don't see how they win 3 or 4 of them.

11, 12, 13: Pitt, VT, Miami (7-13)
14) Wake Forest (5-15)
15) UNC (5-15) ...they may get last place by losing a tie breaker to Wake Forest LOLOLOL.

If we finish #6, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #14/#11 winner from the day before.
If we finish #7, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #15/#10 winner from the day before.
If we finish #8, we'd skip the first day and then we'd play the #9 who would also be in their first game.

2 morals of the story:
1) We don't want to finish #10 or worse, as we'd have to play the first day, and then face a fresh team on day 2 if we win.
2) Finishing inside the top 7 is also a very big advantage, as we'd face a team that just played the night before.

Latest Updates:
All these predicted finishes are pretty much still on track, with the exception of Clemson, since they beat Florida State last weekend:
1) Louisville (15-4)
2) Florida State (14-4)
3) Duke (14-5)
4) Virginia (13-5)

5) Syracuse (9-9) has Boston College and Miami left. They're still looking at 11-9.
6) Notre Dame (9-9) has Florida State and Virginia Tech left. I wasn't expecting them to lose to Wake Forest, so they're looking at 10-10 now unless they can beat Florida State.
Both Syracuse and Notre Dame have the tiebreakers over us. We would need to win out (11-9) and have them both lose 1 of their final 2 games to finish ahead of them.
7) Georgia Tech (9-9) Pitt at home and then @Clemson. That Clemson game could have a 4-place swing in the standings hanging on it.
8) NC State (9-10) has Wake Forest left. Should finish 10-10 and we own the tiebreaker if we both end up there.
9) Clemson (9-9) beat Florida State by 1 last weekend which really hurts. I had predicted 9-11, so they now need to lose @Virginia Tech and home to us to end up there. We'll see...but its likely we both walk into next week's game 10-9.
10) Boston College (7-11). I predicted 8-12. They have Syracuse and @Florida State left, so unlikely. Would be awesome if they could beat Syracuse.
11/12/13/14) Wake, Miami, Virginia Tech, Pitt all have 6 wins.
15) UNCheat, LOLOLOLOL 5-13. They finish with Wake and @Duke. Even if they tie a bunch of people at 6 wins, they lose nearly all the tiebreakers LOL.

We can't finish any worse than 9th. If we finish 9-11, there's a chance we finish 9th. If NC State loses to Wake and we lose out, then we'd finish 8th.
If we go 1-1 losing @Clemson, then we might finish 8th.
If we go 1-1 winning @Clemson, then we finish 7th.
If we go 2-0, we still finish no worse than 7th. If Syracuse doesn't win out or Notre Dame (they play Florida State yet) doesn't win out, then we'd move up to 6th and/or 5th.

 

[g0lftime]

Could have several ACC teams in the NIT. Clemson Cuse ND BC Pitt and NCSU UVA if those 2 don't make the NCAA cut. I don't see UNC VT Miami WF making it. Will be interesting to see who goes to the NIT. UVA is looking good right now but one of these close games will bite them at some point. NCSU is good one night and bad the next. Hard to figure those 2.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Could have several ACC teams in the NIT. Clemson Cuse ND BC Pitt and NCSU UVA if those 2 don't make the NCAA cut. I don't see UNC VT Miami WF making it. Will be interesting to see who goes to the NIT. UVA is looking good right now but one of these close games will bite them at some point. NCSU is good one night and bad the next. Hard to figure those 2.

Some of this will be extremely interesting to watch. Looking at KenPom, Purdue is #25, but 15-14. Minnesota is #31, but has a losing record at 13-15. We could have a couple teams that are almost ranked, but don't even qualify because they don't have a winning record.

I think you're right that only about 5 ACC teams will make the NIT because everyone else below won't have a winning record. We could finish with 5 or 6 teams 1 game below 0.500.

Those top 4 in the ACC I think are all in. The next team in KenPom is NC State at #55. They are down on all kinds of tie breakers and already have 10 losses. I really don't see the selection committee skipping Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Clemson only to then take NC State.

 

[g0lftime]

The 2 losses by NCSU to us hurts them but big win against Duke helps. ACC may not get a 2 seed in the NCAA this year. FSU or UL might if they win the ACCT. Duke is swooning a little outside Cameron. Teams figured out to spread them and drive on them. They have gone zone recently which K doesn't normally like to do. I figured them for a 2 earlier but now not so sure. I don't believe the conference is as weak as a lot of outsiders think. The NCAAT will be interesting.

 

[CuseJacket]

As a GT fan, we should all hope for maximum # of teams in the NCAAT. That helps us directly in the pocketbook.

Unfortunately as of today it's 4 teams with a 50/50 shot for NC State, barring an unexpected auto-qualifier. If you look at the composite of all bracketologists (bracketmatrix.com), NC State is the only ACC bubble team in consideration.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Virginia won their 7th straight, so they’ve clawed back up to tie inside the top 5.

Syracuse won to get to 10-9. They’d now have to lose to Miami for us to pass them AND we’d have to beat Clemson...speaking of which - Notre Dame lost, so if we beat Clemson, we officially finish 6th in the ACC. We’ve won 5 of our last 6 and 6 of our last 8.

If we lose to Clemson and Notre Dame beats Miami, we finish 8th. I think.

 

[orientalnc]

With all the talk of who might be our next coach, I wonder which ACC coaches have done a better job in 2020 that Pastner. I bet the list is very short.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Virginia won their 7th straight, so they’ve clawed back up to tie inside the top 5.

Syracuse won to get to 10-9. They’d now have to lose to Miami for us to pass them AND we’d have to beat Clemson...speaking of which - Notre Dame lost, so if we beat Clemson, we officially finish 6th in the ACC. We’ve won 5 of our last 6 and 6 of our last 8.

If we lose to Clemson and Notre Dame beats Miami, we finish 8th. I think.

Edit, Virginia is tied in the top 4 in the ACC, not 5.

 

[RamblinRed]

Some of this will be extremely interesting to watch. Looking at KenPom, Purdue is #25, but 15-14. Minnesota is #31, but has a losing record at 13-15. We could have a couple teams that are almost ranked, but don't even qualify because they don't have a winning record.

I think you're right that only about 5 ACC teams will make the NIT because everyone else below won't have a winning record. We could finish with 5 or 6 teams 1 game below 0.500.

Those top 4 in the ACC I think are all in. The next team in KenPom is NC State at #55. They are down on all kinds of tie breakers and already have 10 losses. I really don't see the selection committee skipping Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Clemson only to then take NC State.

When you are comparing teams on the bubble, don't spend too much time looking at their NET or KenPom rankings. Go look at the NCAA Team Sheets for each team. it gives you a much better sense of what the committe is looking at and talking about.
First off, if a team does not have a record at least 3 games over .500 they have almost 0 chance of getting an at-large bid. Georgia in 2002 is the only team to ever get an at large bid at 2 games over .500 and that team played a ridiculous schedule in which they played 27 of their 30 games against teams that would be considered Quadrant 1 and 2 teams under the net system.

Also look at how many road wins a team has. no team with fewer than 3 road/neutral wins has ever gotten a bid. Rutgers is going to test that this year as they are unbelievably good at home, but 1-9 on the road.

Also look at how many wins teams have over definite and possible (bubble) tourney teams.

The committee doesn't care about conference records. There are not even provided with the conference records of the teams. Since almost no conferences play round robin anymore conference records are largely not considered important, what's important is who you played. Think in the ACC if one school has to play Duke, L'ville, FSU and UVA twice each and other school plays them only once. The first team may have a worse conference record but be the better team.

NCST is the only bubble team in the ACC. Clemson has the quadrant 1 wins, but too many losses to lesser teams to be considered. Their loss to VT last night means they have to win the auto-bid. They are only 15-14 overall. Both Syracuse and Notre Dame are lacking in wins over any Tournament teams. ND also had a really weak OOC SOS so that is another black mark. Both would have to win the Conference Tourney.
NCST has wins against both Duke and UVA (on the road). they also have a win over Wisconsin. But that is balanced with a fair bit of bad losses. none moreso than the 2 losses to UNC. They are arguably the most bubbly team in the country. They are last one in, first one out in most brackets. They certainly cannot afford to lose to Wake this weekend at home.

As Cuse mentioned it is in GT's interest to have as many ACC teams qualify as possible. The more that qualify, the more money the conference potentially stands to make from the Tourney. The ACC has absolutely cleaned up in credits the last couple of years in the Tourney. This year is likely to be a down year.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

As Cuse mentioned it is in GT's interest to have as many ACC teams qualify as possible. The more that qualify, the more money the conference potentially stands to make from the Tourney. The ACC has absolutely cleaned up in credits the last couple of years in the Tourney. This year is likely to be a down year.

Yep, we need those 4 to all make it to the Sweet 16 and beyond.