lv20gt
Helluva Engineer
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As a comparison.
Prior to coming to GT Dowuona averaged 4.1/4.1 in 24.5 mpg as a sophomore for an NCSU team that went 4-16 in conference. The next year he averaged 1.7/1.4 in 10.9 mpg for an improved NCSU team (going 12-8 in conference). Everything about his time at NCSU pointed to him not being a real contributor for a good ACC level team. This was pointed out before the season last year and several people talked themselves into believing that all it was going to take was a change in scenery to see a big jump. It didn't happen. He scored 4 points and grabbed 12 boards against ACC competition for us last year.
Mutombo at Gtown played 11.8 mpg as a freshman putting up 5.1/3 for a winless in conference Gtown team. He then played 5.4 and 3.8 mpg respectively as a sophomore and junior for GTown teams that won 2 games in conference each year and he played in only 12 and 15 games respectively. I would argue that the comparison favors Dowuona in terms of what was shown prior to arriving here, and Dowuona was far from being a contributor. Everything again points to him not being close to being a contributor against ACC level competition.
However, I would be surprised if Onwuchekwa plays less than double digit minutes come ACC time barring injury. And it's less about him and more about the make up of the team.
The problem we have is our back court right now looks like it will probably be mostly a mixture of George, McCollum, Terry and Mustaf. Of those that have been in college, George last year, by Drtg, was the worst rotation player we had defensively, as well as the worst overall rebounder we had. Two years ago, again by DRtg, Terry was the worst rotation player we had defensively, and was near the bottom rebounding (5.4 TRB% and our worst rotation player was coleman at 5.3). Last year for OU McCollum was the second to worst rotation player d as well as the second worst rebounder. So whenever we have two of those 3 on the court, which looks likely to be our starting and possibly first guard off the bench, that will put increased pressure on the other 3 players to cover in those areas. Mustaf is the wild card because physically he is by far the most likely to be a good rebounder/defender for the position, and I think any best case scenario for us features him at least as the first guard off the bench if not playing his way into the start rotation (whether it's replacing one of the guards or Reeves)
At the 3 spot we have Reeves who has the athletic tools to be a better defender and rebounder than he was, but he was 10th last year for both DRtg and TRB%. He could perhaps take a big jump in that area similar to how Kelly improved his rebounding significantly, but I'm not sure we can really predict it based on anything.
So in general when looking at our front court, no matter how you view positions vs positionless, we will likely need to address both rebounding and defense as our back court likely won't be a positive for rebounding and seems unlikely to be particularly good about preventing drives barring big jumps or surprised from freshmen. Obrien seems like he could be the perfect fit. Shot 38% from three last year so can stretch the court, and his rebounding and defensive numbers from his junior year are very exciting. The concern I would have is that his junior year, while his defense and rebounding was great, his 3 point shot was only 29%. You have to wonder if the wear and tear of the former affected the latter. And last year his 3 point shot was much better, but his defense and rebounding numbers fell as the team overall improved meaning you again have to wonder if he can play at his junior level for a team that is NCAAT quality. The bigger concern to me is he only played 23.6 mpg last year and 22.7 mpg as a junior. Even if he is his junior year, we are still looking at ~25 mpg in the front court to cover. The other options are Powell who is taking a big leap forward, Souare who is coming off a non injury, as far as I know, redshirt year, and Onwuchekwa. Of those Onwuchekwa seems the only one who really provides the option of sliding Baye to the 4 spot which would not only help rebounding at that spot, but importantly take pressure off of him defensively to contest shots or defend potentially bigger opponents which should help with foul issues when they come up, which is a bigger risk when going smaller.
I would guess it would be something like a front court rotation of Baye -30 mpg, O'Brien -25 mpg, Doryan - 15 mpg, and Powell 10 mpg with Souare more likely to eat into Powell's minutes if he surprises. I could also see Obrien sliding to the 3 when Reeves leaves if Mustaff or Sutton don't transition to college that well.
Prior to coming to GT Dowuona averaged 4.1/4.1 in 24.5 mpg as a sophomore for an NCSU team that went 4-16 in conference. The next year he averaged 1.7/1.4 in 10.9 mpg for an improved NCSU team (going 12-8 in conference). Everything about his time at NCSU pointed to him not being a real contributor for a good ACC level team. This was pointed out before the season last year and several people talked themselves into believing that all it was going to take was a change in scenery to see a big jump. It didn't happen. He scored 4 points and grabbed 12 boards against ACC competition for us last year.
Mutombo at Gtown played 11.8 mpg as a freshman putting up 5.1/3 for a winless in conference Gtown team. He then played 5.4 and 3.8 mpg respectively as a sophomore and junior for GTown teams that won 2 games in conference each year and he played in only 12 and 15 games respectively. I would argue that the comparison favors Dowuona in terms of what was shown prior to arriving here, and Dowuona was far from being a contributor. Everything again points to him not being close to being a contributor against ACC level competition.
However, I would be surprised if Onwuchekwa plays less than double digit minutes come ACC time barring injury. And it's less about him and more about the make up of the team.
The problem we have is our back court right now looks like it will probably be mostly a mixture of George, McCollum, Terry and Mustaf. Of those that have been in college, George last year, by Drtg, was the worst rotation player we had defensively, as well as the worst overall rebounder we had. Two years ago, again by DRtg, Terry was the worst rotation player we had defensively, and was near the bottom rebounding (5.4 TRB% and our worst rotation player was coleman at 5.3). Last year for OU McCollum was the second to worst rotation player d as well as the second worst rebounder. So whenever we have two of those 3 on the court, which looks likely to be our starting and possibly first guard off the bench, that will put increased pressure on the other 3 players to cover in those areas. Mustaf is the wild card because physically he is by far the most likely to be a good rebounder/defender for the position, and I think any best case scenario for us features him at least as the first guard off the bench if not playing his way into the start rotation (whether it's replacing one of the guards or Reeves)
At the 3 spot we have Reeves who has the athletic tools to be a better defender and rebounder than he was, but he was 10th last year for both DRtg and TRB%. He could perhaps take a big jump in that area similar to how Kelly improved his rebounding significantly, but I'm not sure we can really predict it based on anything.
So in general when looking at our front court, no matter how you view positions vs positionless, we will likely need to address both rebounding and defense as our back court likely won't be a positive for rebounding and seems unlikely to be particularly good about preventing drives barring big jumps or surprised from freshmen. Obrien seems like he could be the perfect fit. Shot 38% from three last year so can stretch the court, and his rebounding and defensive numbers from his junior year are very exciting. The concern I would have is that his junior year, while his defense and rebounding was great, his 3 point shot was only 29%. You have to wonder if the wear and tear of the former affected the latter. And last year his 3 point shot was much better, but his defense and rebounding numbers fell as the team overall improved meaning you again have to wonder if he can play at his junior level for a team that is NCAAT quality. The bigger concern to me is he only played 23.6 mpg last year and 22.7 mpg as a junior. Even if he is his junior year, we are still looking at ~25 mpg in the front court to cover. The other options are Powell who is taking a big leap forward, Souare who is coming off a non injury, as far as I know, redshirt year, and Onwuchekwa. Of those Onwuchekwa seems the only one who really provides the option of sliding Baye to the 4 spot which would not only help rebounding at that spot, but importantly take pressure off of him defensively to contest shots or defend potentially bigger opponents which should help with foul issues when they come up, which is a bigger risk when going smaller.
I would guess it would be something like a front court rotation of Baye -30 mpg, O'Brien -25 mpg, Doryan - 15 mpg, and Powell 10 mpg with Souare more likely to eat into Powell's minutes if he surprises. I could also see Obrien sliding to the 3 when Reeves leaves if Mustaff or Sutton don't transition to college that well.
