2022 ACC Baseball

[GTNavyNuke]

Our strength of schedule is #2 in the country. We have a chance to host with a strong finish.

Fitt is reaching. 16-14 is .533 & that's 7th in the ACC (right now based on winning %).

How many ACC teams does he expect to host? 5? No chance.

Both division winners will host ... plus maybe 2 more Coastal teams. Need to get past UVA or VT. Not likely.

Thought I'd give a better answer since I remembered the site Boyds World which puts out a Needs Report of what it takes to get to different RPI zones. A lot of guess work since it depends on how others play too which affects our RPI as well as available spots.

NCAA Division I Baseball -- RPI Needs Report

www.boydsworld.com

Here's what we most likely need to do to get into different zones. Top 16 going 6-3 - realistic to me since Clemson is 28th and we are playing there and Pitt is 57th and we are playing there. Top 8 going 7-2 - to me this would require too many others to face plant, but they have their algorithm which they have thought about a lot more than me. It's all an educated guess.

 

[FredJacket]

If you're scoreboard watching & looking ahead to ACC Tournament, Duke & BC are on the outside right now. Probably will remain that way.

Top 4 (in order)
Miami, Louisville, ND, VT

Miami & Louisville have inside track to top 2 seeds. The rest is a jumbled mess. Lots of moving around expected. The best the Jackets can finish is .500 (15-15). Realistically... I expect them to fall in the 9-11 seed range. Frankly... if you aren't a top 4, it probably doesn't matter much.

If season ended today... they'd be 10th in a Pool with ND & FSU. Season doesn't end today... so scratch that Pool combo.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Well we are at 12-15 or .444. Worst case we get swept by Pitt and end up 12-18 = .400. Best case 15-15 or .500.

For those below us

• BC is out of the ACC Tourney. They are 5-22 with 3 games @ Clemson. Best is 8-22 or .267.
• Duke is at 9-16 or .360 and can end up 14-16 if they beat v NC State twice and @ VT 3 times. Nope. Best is 2-3 probably or 11-19 or .367. @FredJacket My guess also is Duke is most likely out.
• UNC is 11-14 or .440 today. 2 to go v Wake and 3 v FSU. They will probably go at least 2-3 and end up 13-17 or .433.
• Clemson is at 9-14 or .391 with 3 @ UVa and 3 v BC. I expect they will go ~4-2 and end up at 13-16 or .448.

All we need to do is not lose again this season, including post-season. Then I won't ***** again this season about ERA or defense. (Odds approaching zero and rounded to zero to one significant digit.)

 

[FredJacket]

Well we are at 12-15 or .444. Worst case we get swept by Pitt and end up 12-18 = .400. Best case 15-15 or .500.

For those below us

• BC is out of the ACC Tourney. They are 5-22 with 3 games @ Clemson. Best is 8-22 or .267.
• Duke is at 9-16 or .360 and can end up 14-16 if they beat v NC State twice and @ VT 3 times. Nope. Best is 2-3 probably or 11-19 or .367. @FredJacket My guess also is Duke is most likely out.
• UNC is 11-14 or .440 today. 2 to go v Wake and 3 v FSU. They will probably go at least 2-3 and end up 13-17 or .433.
• Clemson is at 9-14 or .391 with 3 @ UVa and 3 v BC. I expect they will go ~4-2 and end up at 13-16 or .448.

All we need to do is not lose again this season, including post-season. Then I won't ***** again this season about ERA or defense. (Odds approaching zero and rounded to zero to one significant digit.)

We're 3-9 in ACC road games. Swept twice (at NCST & Clem). Lost 1-2 at UVA. Won 2-1 at UNC. I don't expect a sweep either way at
Pitt. Staring at 14-16 (.467) or 13-17 (.433).

Just would like to avoid pool with UNC or NC State. But that's selfishness as it generally means a more pleasant ACC Tournament experience.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Got a challenge to Wiley, top this Dostoevsky reference and all; think it was a reference to Crime and Punishment. But we do caveman .......

 

[FredJacket]

Nuke... that's my Fredericksburg Nationals.

...that PxP guy is getting some attention on social media. I don't listen to those broadcasts. I go to a few games during the season. He's an acquired taste ... I haven't quite acquired yet.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Nuke... that's my Fredericksburg Nationals.

...that PxP guy is getting some attention on social media. I don't listen to those broadcasts. I go to a few games during the season. He's an acquired taste ... I haven't quite acquired yet.

This got me to thinking about the different media coverage styles of different sports. That baseball call was typical of a futbol goal call. I agree it really isn't consistent with the culture of college baseball; but that is what made it so interesting is how different it was.

At the other end of the sports spectrum you have cycling which is much more sublime with varying triumphs and where cyclists are glorified even though they don't "win". https://derailleur.substack.com/p/two-finish-lines?r=6q1fr&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

One thing that struck me from our Ga Southern game wasn't the win, but the team celebration after the walk off. It is clear our guys really want to win; and a lot of my comments (as well as others) don't recognize that. These guys are giving it all and let's hope that there is a miracle ending in store. Not probable, but would make the victory all the sweeter.

 

[FredJacket]

This got me to thinking about the different media coverage styles of different sports. That baseball call was typical of a futbol goal call. I agree it really isn't consistent with the culture of college baseball; but that is what made it so interesting is how different it was.

At the other end of the sports spectrum you have cycling which is much more sublime with varying triumphs and where cyclists are glorified even though they don't "win". https://derailleur.substack.com/p/two-finish-lines?r=6q1fr&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

One thing that struck me from our Ga Southern game wasn't the win, but the team celebration after the walk off. It is clear our guys really want to win; and a lot of my comments (as well as others) don't recognize that. These guys are giving it all and let's hope that there is a miracle ending in store. Not probable, but would make the victory all the sweeter.

There's a level of cynicism we "old people" reach that is a slow developing thing regarding sports. Something college kids simply don't have... yet. Bless them for it.

Your point is a very important reminder. These kids want to win & believe they can every time they step on the field. Add that they are playing for each other too. It's a beautiful thing to see. We'd be well served to try & enjoy those moments (as witnesses) as well.

 

[GT33]

One thing that struck me from our Ga Southern game wasn't the win, but the team celebration after the walk off. It is clear our guys really want to win; and a lot of my comments (as well as others) don't recognize that. These guys are giving it all and let's hope that there is a miracle ending in store. Not probable, but would make the victory all the sweeter.

No deficit is too big to overcome with these guys. Unfortunately no lead is safe either. Makes for exciting Beesball. Glad I haven’t stroked out yet. I think the years of practice coupled with copious amounts of beer/whiskey is key.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Wiley calling the NC State - Duke game now. Hope he moves on up at ESPN.

Duke fighting to not get swept. They are probably toast but fighting to win this one 6-4 B6. Duke got two runs, walk and then catcher interference on NC State.

@FSU just took series from Miami. And Pitt avoids sweep @ND today. (The series @Pitt is going to be tough for us.)

Not much consistency around the ACC.

 

[senoiajacket]

I really cannot believe we are entering the last weekend of the ACC season and having to battle just to get in our conference tournament. And there is a significant chance that we won’t make it.

Here is the way it breaks down

Pitt. 13-13 Vs GT
Wake. 12-14-1. @NCS +tie breaker
GT. 12-15. @ Pitt
UNC. 12-15. Vs FSU. - tie breaker
Clemson. 11-15 or 10-16. Vs BC. + tie breaker
Duke. 10-17. @VT. + tie breaker

Two of the above don’t make it.

Too many moving parts in a wacky ACC season to guess what will happen.

I just would have never imagined 2 months ago it would be possible for us to be in this position.

 

[FredJacket]

I really cannot believe we are entering the last weekend of the ACC season and having to battle just to get in our conference tournament. And there is a significant chance that we won’t make it.

Here is the way it breaks down

Pitt. 13-13 Vs GT
Wake. 12-14-1. @NCS +tie breaker
GT. 12-15. @ Pitt
UNC. 12-15. Vs FSU. - tie breaker
Clemson. 11-15 or 10-16. Vs BC. + tie breaker
Duke. 10-17. @VT. + tie breaker

Two of the above don’t make it.

Too many moving parts in a wacky ACC season to guess what will happen.

I just would have never imagined 2 months ago it would be possible for us to be in this position.

Agree. Hard to believe we have to go through this drill entering final weekend of ACC play. But here goes:
BC is already eliminated. So we need to finish ahead of one more on your list there. I think this is how for each:

Pitt - must sweep them.
Wake - must win 1 more than Wake does (at NCST).
UNC - must match UNC's win total (v FSU).
Clemson - take our weekend win total. Clemson cannot win 2 more than that (v BC). [Assumes UVA doesn't blow the big lead they have right now v Clemson]
Duke - take our weekend win total. Duke cannot win 2 more than that (at VT).

The path to 'miss' the ACC tournament is there; but extremely narrow.

 

[senoiajacket]

Agree. Hard to believe we have to go through this drill entering final weekend of ACC play. But here goes:
BC is already eliminated. So we need to finish ahead of one more on your list there. I think this is how for each:

Pitt - must sweep them.
Wake - must win 1 more than Wake does (at NCST).
UNC - must match UNC's win total (v FSU).
Clemson - take our weekend win total. Clemson cannot win 2 more than that (v BC). [Assumes UVA doesn't blow the big lead they have right now v Clemson]
Duke - take our weekend win total. Duke cannot win 2 more than that (at VT).

The path to 'miss' the ACC tournament is there; but extremely narrow.

Thanks Fred. I feel better now .

Made a bad mistake on my original post in thinking that two off my list wouldn’t make it!

 

[bensaysitathome]

Agree. Hard to believe we have to go through this drill entering final weekend of ACC play. But here goes:
BC is already eliminated. So we need to finish ahead of one more on your list there. I think this is how for each:

Pitt - must sweep them.
Wake - must win 1 more than Wake does (at NCST).
UNC - must match UNC's win total (v FSU).
Clemson - take our weekend win total. Clemson cannot win 2 more than that (v BC). [Assumes UVA doesn't blow the big lead they have right now v Clemson]
Duke - take our weekend win total. Duke cannot win 2 more than that (at VT).

The path to 'miss' the ACC tournament is there; but extremely narrow.

Good analysis. So, *theoretically* we could walk out of Pitt's turf nightmare field without a win and still make the ACC tourney? As I understand Fred's post:

if GT wins 3-0, we're in

if GT wins 2-1, we're in

if GT loses 1-2, and
Wake gets swept OR tarheels lose the series OR clemson doesn't sweep OR duke doesn't sweep,
and we're in

GT loses 0-3, and
tarheels get swept OR clemson loses the series OR duke loses the series
and we're in

Give me the Jackets and Hokies on Thursday night and put this thing to bed!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Well we are at 12-15 or .444. Worst case we get swept by Pitt and end up 12-18 = .400. Best case 15-15 or .500.

For those below us

• BC is out of the ACC Tourney. They are 5-22 with 3 games @ Clemson. Best is 8-22 or .267.
• Duke is at 9-16 or .360 and can end up 14-16 if they beat v NC State twice and @ VT 3 times. Nope. Best is 2-3 probably or 11-19 or .367. @FredJacket My guess also is Duke is most likely out.
• UNC is 11-14 or .440 today. 2 to go v Wake and 3 v FSU. They will probably go at least 2-3 and end up 13-17 or .433.
• Clemson is at 9-14 or .391 with 3 @ UVa and 3 v BC. I expect they will go ~4-2 and end up at 13-16 or .448.

All we need to do is not lose again this season, including post-season. Then I won't ***** again this season about ERA or defense. (Odds approaching zero and rounded to zero to one significant digit.)

Update after the weekend: Well we are still at 12-15 or .444. Worst case we get swept by Pitt and end up 12-18 = .400. Best case 15-15 or .500.

For those below us, I think we end up about 11th.

• BC is out of the ACC Tourney. They are 5-22 with 3 games @ Clemson. Best is 8-22 or .267.
• Duke is at 10-17 or .370 and can end up 13-17 if they beat @ VT 3 times. Nope. Best is 2-1 probably or 12-18 or .400 but probably lower since VT playing for better host. My guess is Duke is most likely out.
• Clemson is at 10-16 or .385 with 3 v BC. I expect they will go ~2-1 and end up at 12-17 or .414.
• We are at 12-15 or .444. Expect we go 1-2 since we don't play well on the road or at Pitt. End up at 13-17 or .433.
• UNC is 12-15 or .440 today. 3 v FSU. They will probably go 2-1 and end up 14-16 or .467.

Agree @bensaysitathome , we win at least one and Duke loses at least one and we're in. That is by far the most likely outcome.

Oh yeah, who ever doesn't make the ACC tourney will not make the NCAA. Also, I think any team substantially below 500 in the ACC is at risk. We are probably ok given our high SoS and good OOC, but you never know. I think we are going to be talking about what needs to get done in ACC Tourney for NCAA seeding after this weekend.

Good thing is that everyone starts at 0-0 postseason. Have to win the games!

 

[FredJacket]

VT is in position to win the Coastal. They host Duke this weekend. Miami hosts Notre Dame. If my math is correct... VT wins division by simply win more games than Miami this weekend.

If that happens... will be the 2nd year in a row the winner of one of the ACC divisions was picked dead last in preseason by D1 Baseball.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

VT is in position to win the Coastal. They host Duke this weekend. Miami hosts Notre Dame. If my math is correct... VT wins division by simply win more games than Miami this weekend.

If that happens... will be the 2nd year in a row the winner of one of the ACC divisions was picked dead last in preseason by D1 Baseball.

ND and VT. Abominations of nature. The world is not as it should be.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

ND and VT. Abominations of nature. The world is not as it should be.

D1Baseball predicting VT and Maryland as top 8 seeds in the tournament, with ND another host. Talk about college baseball abominations...

 

[FredJacket]

D1Baseball predicting VT and Maryland as top 8 seeds in the tournament, with ND another host. Talk about college baseball abominations...

Yep. & both will avoid an SEC team coming to here regional...I'm guessing. Maryland might get an ACC team though.

 

[FredJacket]

A bit of cherry picking but interesting to me.

Bottom 5 in ACC
Ga Tech
UNC
Clemson
Duke
BC

What did these teams have in common entering this weekend? None had played BC. (Clemson is playing them this weekend)

BC has only 5 wins. As of today that's half as many as Duke... the 13th place team. That's waaaaay back in the way back.

As it turned out... it was a pretty significant advantage having BC on your schedule this year.