FredJacket
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UNC wins Coastal Division with 5 games still remaining. This assures them the #1 or #2 seed in ACC Tournament.
2017 ACC Baseball
- Thread starter FredJacket
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RoosterJacket
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VT split with UNC today. Pitt is down 6-1 early to NCST.
At his point after the last two losses, we are mainly just concerned with the following teams and needing them to just keep losing so we can back ourselves into the tournament:
GT 9-17
VT 9-17 (GT holds tiebreaker)
Pitt 8-17 (GT holds tiebreaker)
BC 8-19
While there is not much optimism about winning a game in the ACC Tourney, I still think it is a good experience for the younger guys. May not be a super fun experience for the fans watching.
At his point after the last two losses, we are mainly just concerned with the following teams and needing them to just keep losing so we can back ourselves into the tournament:
GT 9-17
VT 9-17 (GT holds tiebreaker)
Pitt 8-17 (GT holds tiebreaker)
BC 8-19
While there is not much optimism about winning a game in the ACC Tourney, I still think it is a good experience for the younger guys. May not be a super fun experience for the fans watching.
FredJacket
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Louisville wins the Atlantic. Figure the odds that both divisions are clinched on the Sat of the weekend prior to final weekend of conference play.
Louisville & UNC will be top 2 seeds in tournament.
Louisville & UNC will be top 2 seeds in tournament.
RoosterJacket
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Pitt loses 8-6 to NCST.
9) Duke 11-15 (Duke holds tiebreaker)
10) ND 10-17 (ND holds tiebreaker)
11) GT 9-17
12) VT 9-17 (GT holds tiebreaker)
13) Pitt 8-18 (GT holds tiebreaker)
14) BC 8-19
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FredJacket
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A tie within the division with VT and/or Pitt bodes well for us since we do own the tiebreakers in that scenario. The rest of this I think I'm correct on...
2-way tie with BC: We also would win a tiebreaker with BC (if we are only tied with them) by virtue of our win over UNC. UNC swept BC. I'd think if we were tied with BC only... it would not matter because that would be a tie for 13th... still not in the tournament.
3 or 4 way tie among BC/VT/Pitt/GT: I still think we are in pretty good shape to rise above 2 of them (at least). Helps for VT to lose to UNC today...for our overall standing and this tiebreak scenario.
The worst thing about all of this is I have to actually care about the ND @ BC series next weekend. Something I never would have predicted.
65Jacket
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Our five best pitchers are out for the year. Other than that things are swell.
FredJacket
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...& the rest of the staff are all tied for 6th best. (tic)
RoosterJacket
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Scores of interest:
GT 1 Duke 0 T5
NCST 11 Pitt 0 T4
UNC 4 VT 0 B4
GT 1 Duke 0 T5
NCST 11 Pitt 0 T4
UNC 4 VT 0 B4
RoosterJacket
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Pending any miraculous comebacks today, here are the standings after today's games:
9) Duke 11-16 (Duke holds tiebreaker)
10) ND 10-17 (ND holds tiebreaker)
11) GT 10-17
12) VT 9-18 (GT holds tiebreaker)
13) Pitt 8-19 (GT holds tiebreaker)
14) BC 8-19
Here are who those teams play next weekend:
Duke @ UNC
ND @ BC
GT vs UVA
VT @ Miami
Pitt @ WF
BC vs ND
I think what this means is that if we win 1, we are in. If BC sweeps, then we'd be above ND and BC (BC based on condo winning %). If we get swept, we need 2 of the following to also happen: WF to win 1, Miami to win 2, or ND to win 1.
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FredJacket
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Season road win totals for the road teams this coming weekend:
Duke - Has 4 road wins... never more than 1 in a series.
ND - Has 3 road wins...2 @ Pitt; 1 @ UVA
Pitt - Has 2 road wins...both @ Duke
VT - Has 1 road win.
UVA - Has 6 road wins...no road sweeps (either way).
On paper... we are in a good spot. Hold a lot of the tiebreakers and our main 'concerns' are on the road with poor road resumes. Unfortunately, I think we've played our way INTO the dreaded #11 or #12 seed which would mean a pool with UNC or Louisville in it. At this point... just NO LOUISVILLE.
On the other hand... UVA is solidly in the tournament. They cannot be a #1 or #2 seed and they've probably avoided a pool with UNC or Louisville (I think). They just may be in a 'coast' mode for our series next weekend. Maybe even resting some guys for the ACC tournament which only gives the 6 teams that play on Day 1 (Tues)... 3 days rest.
MWBATL
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So, if I understand correctly, our magic number to make the ACC Tourney is one, right? Since we own the tie breakers (iirc) with both Pitt and BC. If we win once and they sweep, we are still in as we will have 11 wins but own the tie breakers over both competitors. Correct?
FredJacket
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Owning the "condo winning %" is huge...whatever that is
I do agree if we get 1 win over UVA, we are IN at 11-19. I still like our chances even if we're swept (see below).
And the reason (I think) we'd finish ahead of BC should we end up in a 2-way tie with them is our records v UNC (Tech 1-2 and BC 0-3). The tiebreaker in this case (with no head to head) falls to: "Head-to-head competition of the tied teams compared to common opponents with the highest overall conference winning percentage and continuing until one team gains an advantage." We had same record v LOU (0-3)... and UNC will be the next check.
Disclaimer: This stuff is a little confusing... I think I'm right about what follows:
To answer @MWBATL ... if we end up 11-19 in 3-way tie with Pitt and BC, I think we do come out on top of those 3 (and IN); however, we'd only need to be 1 or 2 of those 3 because a BC sweep keeps ND at 10 wins.
Only because I like noodling through these things. Here are some scenarios:
One scenario that will prevent us from making tournament:
All of this must happen for us to be out.
1) We get swept
2) Pitt wins at least 2 at WF
3) BC sweeps ND
4) VT wins at least 2 at Mia
If that happened exactly like that... we'd be in a 3-way tie at 10-20 with ND and Pitt (if Pitt won 2 exactly at WF) for 12th. ND wins the tiebreaker due to combined head-to-head among tied team.
Or this:
1) We're swept
2) BC sweeps ND
3) Pitt wins 2
4) VT wins 1
This would be 4-way tie at bottom of conference at 10-20 (GT, Pitt, ND, VT). I think the final order would be (ND, VT, GT, Pitt)... but I'm not sure.
My rationale is the head-to-head v common opponents with highest win % in the conference. The 1st common opponent working down winning % is UVA. In this scenario UVA sweeps us (and Pitt). ND and VT were 1-2 v UVA.
A back door way IN:
1) Tech is swept
2) VT wins 1
3) Pitt wins 2
4) BC wins 2
This would be a 4-way tie at 10-20 (GT, VT, Pitt, BC). Think the final order would be (GT, Pitt, VT, BC)... but I'm really not sure.
My rationale is the head-to-head v common opponents with highest win % in the conference. UNC (not LOU) was common opponent for all 4 teams. GT, VT, Pitt each were 1-2 against UNC. BC was 0-3. I think that makes BC last of the 4. Then you have a 3-way tie and revert back to record among tied teams. GT gets that making them 1st of the 4. Then you revert to 2-way tie (VT v Pitt). VT wins that.
Ok... uncle. Lots of combos... now my head hurts. I thought I liked noodling through this stuff.
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After Friday's games the permutations will be greatly reduced... Heck after Sunday it even be easier [emoji41]
MWBATL
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Especially since most series start this weekend on Thursday! ;-)
RoosterJacket
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That condo winning pct is huge!!!Owning the "condo winning %" is huge...whatever that is
I do agree if we get 1 win over UVA, we are IN at 11-19. I still like our chances even if we're swept (see below).
And the reason (I think) we'd finish ahead of BC should we end up in a 2-way tie with them is our records v UNC (Tech 1-2 and BC 0-3). The tiebreaker in this case (with no head to head) falls to: "Head-to-head competition of the tied teams compared to common opponents with the highest overall conference winning percentage and continuing until one team gains an advantage." We had same record v LOU (0-3)... and UNC will be the next check.
Disclaimer: This stuff is a little confusing... I think I'm right about what follows:
To answer @MWBATL ... if we end up 11-19 in 3-way tie with Pitt and BC, I think we do come out on top of those 3 (and IN); however, we'd only need to be 1 or 2 of those 3 because a BC sweep keeps ND at 10 wins.
Only because I like noodling through these things. Here are some scenarios:
One scenario that will prevent us from making tournament:
All of this must happen for us to be out.
1) We get swept
2) Pitt wins at least 2 at WF
3) BC sweeps ND
4) VT wins at least 2 at Mia
If that happened exactly like that... we'd be in a 3-way tie at 10-20 with ND and Pitt (if Pitt won 2 exactly at WF) for 12th. ND wins the tiebreaker due to combined head-to-head among tied team.
Or this:
1) We're swept
2) BC sweeps ND
3) Pitt wins 2
4) VT wins 1
This would be 4-way tie at bottom of conference at 10-20 (GT, Pitt, ND, VT). I think the final order would be (ND, VT, GT, Pitt)... but I'm not sure.
My rationale is the head-to-head v common opponents with highest win % in the conference. The 1st common opponent working down winning % is UVA. In this scenario UVA sweeps us (and Pitt). ND and VT were 1-2 v UVA.
A back door way IN:
1) Tech is swept
2) VT wins 1
3) Pitt wins 2
4) BC wins 2
This would be a 4-way tie at 10-20 (GT, VT, Pitt, BC). Think the final order would be (GT, Pitt, VT, BC)... but I'm really not sure.
My rationale is the head-to-head v common opponents with highest win % in the conference. UNC (not LOU) was common opponent for all 4 teams. GT, VT, Pitt each were 1-2 against UNC. BC was 0-3. I think that makes BC last of the 4. Then you have a 3-way tie and revert back to record among tied teams. GT gets that making them 1st of the 4. Then you revert to 2-way tie (VT v Pitt). VT wins that.
Ok... uncle. Lots of combos... now my head hurts. I thought I liked noodling through this stuff.
I think everything you have written is correct. It would take a lot of things to not go our way for us to not make the ACC tournament...but that's never stopped us before...
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I hope UVa wins the ACC tourney. Certainly a much better institution than either L'Ville or UNC who are academic whores.
Yup, the chances of us overtaking ND with one more win than them is negligible. No way are we going to beat UVa one more time than BC beats ND. I think if we win one over UVa that will be over-performing for us.
Yup, the chances of us overtaking ND with one more win than them is negligible. No way are we going to beat UVa one more time than BC beats ND. I think if we win one over UVa that will be over-performing for us.
THWG
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We were swept by Louisville, but Ryan blew that series finale in the 9th so we shouldn't have been swept.