2017 ACC Baseball

[RoosterJacket]

Friday results all good for Tech...
BC & ND lose.

BC beat Wake 8-0 yesterday. That doesn't help us. We really need to win tonight and tomorrow.

 

[FredJacket]

As @RoosterJacket pointed out, these things matter way less than Ga Tech just winning a bunch of games over Pitt and Duke…. However, BC and ND have completed their play for the weekend. BC got just 1 win at Wake and ND was swept by Louisville.

So… it is ND (10-17) & BC (8-19) with one ACC series left (against one another) in 2 weeks… therefore; only the 3 wins in that series they must share between them.

In contrast… as of now (Sat at 5pm), Ga Tech (7-15) has 8 games remaining. I have to believe 11 or 12 wins is attainable…maybe even more. For now…feeling good about our chances.

 

[FredJacket]

Here's another theory I've been thinking about that no one seems to talk about. Everyone talks about how great the local amateur talent is down there in Georgia. We should be in the hunt for the College World Series every year some say. We these guys we can just roll the ball onto the field and waltz into the Super Regionals no problem. Well, maybe local Georgia amateur talent is just overrated. What team predominately made up of these supposedly amazing Georgia kids is tearing it up right now? I don't really see one and haven't for years.

And a sidebar to that, I feel like every pitcher we get from East Cobb (which feels like most of our staff) gets hurt. Like blown out arm hurt. Maybe we should be asking ourselves what they're doing to these kids.

I'm glad you posted this. I am totally out of the loop on HS talent...zero insight/knowledge. As a result, I've just taken it for granted those posting about the awesome baseball talent in GA was factually accurate.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm glad you posted this. I am totally out of the loop on HS talent...zero insight/knowledge. As a result, I've just taken it for granted those posting about the awesome baseball talent in GA was factually accurate.

I think there is awesome baseball talent in Georgia. And many other states.

There seems to be a "Moore's Law" for athletics in place. Rather than computing speed doubling every two years, it's something like every ten years the median athletic performance goes up to where it was for the 20% ten years earlier. (Today's person in the 20th percentile would be 50th percentile on the same scale 10 years in the future.)

I know my numbers aren't right, but we see it in football. The stars of 20 years ago would have a hard time starting today in football. Today's players are just getting bigger, stronger and faster.

So people look at the baseball players today and compare them to kids 10 years ago and the players today are superstars.......

 

[GTNavyNuke]

As @RoosterJacket pointed out, these things matter way less than Ga Tech just winning a bunch of games over Pitt and Duke…. However, BC and ND have completed their play for the weekend. BC got just 1 win at Wake and ND was swept by Louisville.

So… it is ND (10-17) & BC (8-19) with one ACC series left (against one another) in 2 weeks… therefore; only the 3 wins in that series they must share between them.

In contrast… as of now (Sat at 5pm), Ga Tech (7-15) has 8 games remaining. I have to believe 11 or 12 wins is attainable…maybe even more. For now…feeling good about our chances.

We can only control ourselves. Right now we have the fewest wins in the ACC at 7. Nothing matters if we don't win. We HAVE to win one of the next two. Yesterday's unearned win was manna from heaven.

At 8 wins are VT, Pitt, BC.
At 9 wins Duke.

It's like us hiking in the woods. I don't have to run faster than the bear, I only have to run faster than you. We get 11 wins (take 2 from Pitt) and I agree with you that we are in as we will have tie breaker over VT and Pitt. Take the series from Duke and we have that tiebreaker.

As always, GT is making it hard at the end. Can't just beat the crap out of people early and ride the wave.

 

[MWBATL]

There are now 4 teams at 8 wins tied for fewest in the league. Technically we are the top of that pile.....for the moment. Duke has 9 wins.

I think our season may hinge on tomorrow's game. Lose and Pitt slides back ahead of us. I fear the series at Duke and think we'll be lucky to win one there....that would leave us with only 9 wins going into the home series with Virginia. Duke would have 11, Pitt would likely be ahead os us, we'd be in a dogfight with BC and VPISU for the final two spots. I could see BC winning 2 from Notre Dame to finish with 10 wins....VPISU hosts UNC and visits Miami...they could get to 10 wins also.....we own the tiebreaker with VPISU, but I have no idea if we tie with BC how that would be resolved since we did not face each other.

Win tomottow and our road looks much, much better.....11 wins would appear doable, and Pitt would be in the dogfight at the bottom.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

If I had to trade a loss* tomorrow for a second win over Duke, I take the trade. I think we have to win the Duke series. Then we'd have enough tie breakers (VT, Pitt and Duke) to probably slither in on that alone with 10 wins. Today was huge taking the series.

*Of course, I'd like to see us win out, win the ACC tourney and the CWS too ........

 

[FredJacket]

There are now 4 teams at 8 wins tied for fewest in the league. Technically we are the top of that pile.....for the moment. Duke has 9 wins.

I think our season may hinge on tomorrow's game. Lose and Pitt slides back ahead of us. I fear the series at Duke and think we'll be lucky to win one there....that would leave us with only 9 wins going into the home series with Virginia. Duke would have 11, Pitt would likely be ahead os us, we'd be in a dogfight with BC and VPISU for the final two spots. I could see BC winning 2 from Notre Dame to finish with 10 wins....VPISU hosts UNC and visits Miami...they could get to 10 wins also.....we own the tiebreaker with VPISU, but I have no idea if we tie with BC how that would be resolved since we did not face each other.

Win tomottow and our road looks much, much better.....11 wins would appear doable, and Pitt would be in the dogfight at the bottom.

What is it about Duke that makes you think we would be 'lucky' to win one? [except that watching Tech play... it usually feels lucky after any win ] Duke has won only one home series this year... VT on the very 1st weekend of ACC play. Both BC and Pitt have taken 2 of 3 in Durham. I'm not saying Ga Tech is a BIG favorite against Duke...but these teams look a lot alike when you see their pattern over the season. A Duke sweep would really surprise me. At a minimum...Tech is at least playing with confidence now. Tech did win their last road series (@ VT) and have now won 3 straight ACC games...going for 4 tonight. I do agree that each game now is like a playoff/elimination type game because you just cannot take any game for granted. Win the next one!!

 

[MWBATL]

What is it about Duke that makes you think we would be 'lucky' to win one?

Well, iirc their park is rather large and there will be few if any home runs hit (I am relying on my memory, so I could be wrong.). I think we don't generally play small ball very well, especially as we strike out so much. Our pitching is getting better with fewer walks and hit batsmen and the like, but our fielding was a joke yesterday and has been an adventure all season, which again hurts us playing small ball. Then, we were 2-7 away before winning the series at VPI&SU (whom I happen to think is actually the second or third worst team in the ACC). Add to that fact the fact that Duke has not been swept all season...by anyone...in the ACC. All in all, it should be a 2-1 series one way or the other, and the way we play we could easily give away one game we should win. Hence, my feeling that we will win one in Durham.

Hope I am dead wrong.

 

[FredJacket]

Well, iirc their park is rather large and there will be few if any home runs hit (I am relying on my memory, so I could be wrong.). I think we don't generally play small ball very well, especially as we strike out so much. Our pitching is getting better with fewer walks and hit batsmen and the like, but our fielding was a joke yesterday and has been an adventure all season, which again hurts us playing small ball. Then, we were 2-7 away before winning the series at VPI&SU (whom I happen to think is actually the second or third worst team in the ACC). Add to that fact the fact that Duke has not been swept all season...by anyone...in the ACC. All in all, it should be a 2-1 series one way or the other, and the way we play we could easily give away one game we should win. Hence, my feeling that we will win one in Durham.

Hope I am dead wrong.

My quick look at our last 2 trips ('13 & '15) to Durham would support your recollection. Tech's record is 3-3 over those 6 games... but to your point, pretty low scoring games.

 

[FredJacket]

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/conf-prediction?conference=ACC
This site now has 'predicted' finish stuff. It has Tech finishing 12-18. That would mean 3-3 over the final six games. I suppose that translates to 2 wins at Duke and 1 win at home against UVA. That's fine...seems reasonable. That puts us into tournament no problem. Now to get greedy (and ahead of myself ) with an eye on the tournament pools. Goal #1 would be to avoid being in Louisville's pool...simply because it will be annoying playing a true "road" game against a stellar Louisville team. The best way to avoid Louisville (who will be a #1 or #2 seed) is to finish 9th or 10th overall in the ACC. That means finishing ahead of 4 of these teams: BC, VT, Pitt, Duke, & ND.

 

[MWBATL]

If we can win two at Duke I think we are in very good shape.

The biggest improvement I have seen recently is we have cut down on the mistakes which cost us runs (and games). Pitching has cut down on walks, WP's and Hit batsmen. Fielding has improved. We aren't a threat to the top teams yet...improved doesn't mean we are good at those things, it simply means we have gotten better. Our series with Pitt is a classic example....they simply made more mistakes than we did. We did not really out-talent them. But cutting down on our own mistakes and not beating ourselves is a huge improvement over the mid-season form we had.

Now, if we can be better about recruting pitching....

 

[FredJacket]

If we can win two at Duke I think we are in very good shape.

The biggest improvement I have seen recently is we have cut down on the mistakes which cost us runs (and games). Pitching has cut down on walks, WP's and Hit batsmen. Fielding has improved. We aren't a threat to the top teams yet...improved doesn't mean we are good at those things, it simply means we have gotten better. Our series with Pitt is a classic example....they simply made more mistakes than we did. We did not really out-talent them. But cutting down on our own mistakes and not beating ourselves is a huge improvement over the mid-season form we had.

Now, if we can be better about recruting pitching....

It will be interesting to watch how things play out these last 2 series. I think the schedule sets of quite nice to "test" us on exactly how much we have improved. Are we really..not kidding measurably better OR are we just playing a little better against some weak teams. With a road game against a "similar" opponent in Duke, we can get some good info. Assuming we sort of do the same to Duke we did to VT and Pittsburgh... then we finish at home against a really good team in UVA. An opportunity in the final 3 games of the season to REALLY see where the team stands. At least I hope that's how this plays out.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Not including our own series this weekend, there are really only two other series happening that affect our pursuit of making the ACC tourney

UNC @ VT - need UNC sweep to keep pushing VT down
NC State @ Pitt - depending on how we do determines how we want this to play out---we could potentially move up some spots if we sweep and Pitt sweeps; but at this point I think to be safe, I'd like to see a NCST sweep

Current 8th-14th standings:
8) NC State 11-13
9) Notre Dame 10-17
10t) GT 9-15
10t) Duke 9-15
12) Pitt 8-16 (holds tiebreaker over VT)
13) VT 8-16
14) Boston College 8-19

Looking at the impactful series' on the final weekend (outside of ours vs UVA):
Notre Dame @ Boston College
Duke @ UNC
Pitt @ Wake Forest
Clemson @ NCST
VT @ Miami

 

[FredJacket]

Not including our own series this weekend, there are really only two other series happening that affect our pursuit of making the ACC tourney

UNC @ VT - need UNC sweep to keep pushing VT down
NC State @ Pitt - depending on how we do determines how we want this to play out---we could potentially move up some spots if we sweep and Pitt sweeps; but at this point I think to be safe, I'd like to see a NCST sweep

Current 8th-14th standings:
8) NC State 11-13
9) Notre Dame 10-17
10t) GT 9-15
10t) Duke 9-15
12) Pitt 8-16 (holds tiebreaker over VT)
13) VT 8-16
14) Boston College 8-19

Looking at the impactful series' on the final weekend (outside of ours vs UVA):
Notre Dame @ Boston College
Duke @ UNC
Pitt @ Wake Forest
Clemson @ NCST
VT @ Miami

If somehow we climb as high as the #8 seed... it means we will be awarded with being in Pool A (#1, #8, #12)...and maybe/probably playing Louisville in Louisville for a game. The sweet spots are #9 or #10: Pool C (#3, #6, #10) and Pool D (#4, #5, #9). Don't want to suggest we play some 'game' where we try to manipulate our wins/losses to be in a certain spot. The team needs to win every game. But like I stated in an earlier post... pool C or D (for my money) will make for the best 'situation' for Tech at the tournament.

 

[FredJacket]

Not including our own series this weekend, there are really only two other series happening that affect our pursuit of making the ACC tourney

UNC @ VT - need UNC sweep to keep pushing VT down
NC State @ Pitt - depending on how we do determines how we want this to play out---we could potentially move up some spots if we sweep and Pitt sweeps; but at this point I think to be safe, I'd like to see a NCST sweep

Weather may be a factor for all 3 series... in Durham, in Pittsburgh, & in Blacksburg. Expect schedule changes (hopefully, no cancellations). Don't really want VT and Pittsburgh getting off the hook by getting to face their respective opponents less than 3 times.

 

[twofortheroad]

Weather may be a factor for all 3 series... in Durham, in Pittsburgh, & in Blacksburg. Expect schedule changes (hopefully, no cancellations). Don't really want VT and Pittsburgh getting off the hook by getting to face their respective opponents less than 3 times.

Keep in mind that it is based on percentage of wins/loses and not actual wins and loses. If you look at the standings right now we are listed ahead of Duke due to our slight win % in overall wins. If we had not played ND it wouldn't have really counted against us.

This could hurt or help us as we close out the main part of the season.

 

[FredJacket]

Keep in mind that it is based on percentage of wins/loses and not actual wins and loses. If you look at the standings right now we are listed ahead of Duke due to our slight win % in overall wins. If we had not played ND it wouldn't have really counted against us.

This could hurt or help us as we close out the main part of the season.

The ACC standings are solely based on conference winning percentage. Overall (out of conference) results have no bearing on the conference standings.

Ga Tech & Duke are tied right now with 9-15 conference records. The reason Tech is ahead of Duke in standings is we own the applicable tiebreaker right now. Which in this case...at this moment... is we have a higher winning percentage in the Coastal division. That's the tiebreaker that applies (right now) when 2 divisional teams are tied. Now.. that's a meaningless technicality because head to head is the "first tiebreaker" & that will be established after playing Duke this weekend.
http://www.theacc.com/page/acc-baseball-tiebreakers

 

[RoosterJacket]

The ACC standings are solely based on conference winning percentage. Overall (out of conference) results have no bearing on the conference standings.

Ga Tech & Duke are tied right now with 9-15 conference records. The reason Tech is ahead of Duke in standings is we own the applicable tiebreaker right now. Which in this case...at this moment... is we have a higher winning percentage in the Coastal division. That's the tiebreaker that applies (right now) when 2 divisional teams are tied. Now.. that's a meaningless technicality because head to head is the "first tiebreaker" & that will be established after playing Duke this weekend.
http://www.theacc.com/page/acc-baseball-tiebreakers

Obviously, we really need to win the series at Duke.

Duke is 5-7 in the Coastal, we are 7-5. After this weekend, we get UVA at home and they have to go to UNC. I don't see them winning more than 1 at UNC and best case for us is 2 wins vs UVA with worst case 0 wins.

A GT sweep would all but guarantee us a spot in the ACC tourney. 2 wins at Duke would put us in a really good spot to make it. 1 win would make it pretty iffy, but still a chance to get in (pretty much would have to win 1 vs UVA). Getting swept would be bad...really bad. And the thing is, I wouldn't be surprised with any outcome this weekend.

 

[FredJacket]

Games of concern weekend scheduling changes (as of 1230pm Fri):
Ga Tech @ Duke
Fri - 4pm (moved from 6pm)
Sat - 1pm
Sun - 1pm

UNC @VT
Fri - No game
Sat - 12pm (DH)
Sun - 1pm

UNC @ Pitt
No changes
Fri - 6pm
Sat - 6pm
Sun - 1pm

Seems all the weather at these venues will be good enough by mid-day Sat for all 3 games in each series to be played by the end of the day on Sunday.