2017 ACC Baseball

[GTNavyNuke]

I saw the 27 RPI this morning too and was surprised by how high it was. We got a lot of credit for losing to good teams (tic). When we play lesser ranked teams (other than L'Ville) from here on out, I think our RPI will drop unless we win more than 2/3 of our remaining games.

We have to do better on a consistent basis. We have not been consistent in pitching or fielding. More on that elsewhere.......

 

[FredJacket]

ACC Weekend #5. Will be halfway through conference play after Monday (Miami/Duke play Sat-Mon series). The following is my scoreboard watching/what's good for Ga Tech take on this week's conference serieses ... any grammar person who wants to school me on plural for 'series'...bring it on. I'm not too old to learn.. I am too old to care, though.

- Ga Tech @ Notre Dame: Tech needs/should win the series... sweeping them would be very helpful! #captainobvious
- UNC @ BC: I'm already conceding UNC will win Coastal and be the #1 or #2 seed in the ACC Tourney. Therefore... keeping a boot on BC's throat is just fine.
- Duke @ Miami: Both teams are 5-7 in the conference. With no crystal ball... gotta just hope no sweep (either way)...keeping win totals (winning percentages) for both teams at a minimum.
- Pitt @ UVA: Similar (but not as pronounced) to UNC, UVA (5-7) is probably going to head toward top of Coastal with very little we can do to stop them (i.e. get in front of them). Although, right now... Pitt holds a better record at 6-6. So... hedging a little, I like our chances of "passing" Pitt more than passing both (Go HOOS). I reserve the right to change my mind in the future.
- VT @ Clemson: Expect Clemson to handle Va Tech... without much problem. That is good for Ga Tech too.
- WF @ Louisville: Best matchup of the weekend in the ACC. WF has a chance to prove any remaining skeptics regarding their early season success wrong on road against Louisville.
- FSU @ NCST: Interesting. Both of these teams have not met expectations thus far.

 

[Squints]

The Coastal is now the Land of Not Quite Right:
UNC 9-3
PITT 6-6
VT 6-6
UVA 5-7
Duke 5-7
Miami 5-7
GT 4-8

Pitt & Va Tech 2nd & 3rd... does not compute. & VT was swept by Pitt last weekend.

It's definitely a little different than usual. I think probably it ends up looking more familiar by the end. I'm guessing UVA, Miami, and (hopefully) GT will bubble up over the next coming weeks while Pitt and VT drop. The former three had front-loaded conference schedules. The other two look to be tougher on the back end.

 

[FredJacket]

Adjusting my own expectations (really... my hope/desire, now)... the path to "make" the ACC Tournament. It hurts to even have to write that. However...making the conference tournament needs to be important. Recall the tournament field is 12 teams this year. Only 2 teams won't make it. As we sit now... Tech is firmly out.

BC seems destined to finish last in the conference. Using twisted logic, I am relieved we do not have BC on our schedule. At this point, I think I'd rather leave it up to other teams to keep them behind us in the standings. Those teams are Duke, NCST, Miami, WF, & ND.

We have 4 wins. Man, that's still hard to believe. The 3 teams just ahead of us in the conference...each with 6 wins: VT, Duke, Pittsburgh. All of them in the Coastal and we have yet to play any of them. So... we do control some of our destiny in that regard. Just need to pass ONE of them to get into the tournament.

Pitt: I give us the best chance at passing Pitt. Translation: I see Pitt struggling the most with their remaining schedule. Here are their final 5 series: Miami, UNC, @GT, NCST, @WF.
VT: Feel pretty good that VT will struggle with their remaining schedule too. Remaining series: UVA, GT, @NCST, UNC, @MIA.
Duke: This seems to be the least likely (of these 3) that we will pass. Remaining series: BC, @LOU, @ND, GT, @UNC

At the halfway point and 12 teams with at least 6 wins, I will 'project' 11 wins gets you in the tournament. The 13th place team (not in) will finish with 10 wins. The simplest path for Ga Tech to get to 11 wins. Assume (worst case), we are swept by UVA and LOU. Now both of those series are in Atlanta. I have to believe we can scratch out 1 or 2 wins over those 6 games. But for these purposes... let's assume we go 0-6 against them. Means we need to go 7-2 against @VT, Pitt, @Duke. It's also very important to at least win the series against each of these teams... setting up a tiebreaker advantage for the final spot in the tournament should we finish with same records vying for that 12th seed.

....ugh.. somebody make me feel better, please. Challenge my assumptions:
Is 11 wins gonna be the number or can we get there with 10?
Can we win ONE game in 6 at home v UVA/LOU?

Why do I care? I've asked my wife that out loud about 14 times this year while watching/listening to games... not exaggerating. Yet, here I am... wanting something that seems so unlikely now.

 

[65Jacket]

I would not assume we are going to win any ACC road games. After watching us vs ND, we are a team creating ways to lose.

 

[MWBATL]

We managed one win each against both Clemson and UNC at home. I think we'll go 2-4 vs the remains good teams, Louisville and Virginia. Where I differ with you is that I expect to go no better than 2-4 in the two road series vs VPI&SU and Duke. That gets us to 8 wins. I think we'll win our one ACC series at home against Pitt, 2-1, which will leave us 10-20, and according to your expectations, out of the tournament. I have seen no reason whatsoever to think we will win either remaining road series. And that includes Illinois-Chicago.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

.......
Why do I care? I've asked my wife that out loud about 14 times this year while watching/listening to games... not exaggerating. Yet, here I am... wanting something that seems so unlikely now.

It's one thing to care. It's another to let it affect your happiness. (I don't think you do let it affect your happiness.) When listening/watching any game (not just GT baseball) doesn't make me feel good, I just don't listen/watch. I also have stopped watching games where I am only rooting for someone to lose. Tonight, I'll check the stats during the game and listen to WREK if we aren't embarrassing ourselves again.

I hope we make the ACC tourney and the NCAA tourney. But even if we do, we are unlikely to go very far. So my interest this year is largely done. After the year is over, maybe before the ACC tourney unless we get better, I'll think about next year. We *should* have better pitching next year. But after making a fool of myself expecting better pitching this year, I'd be smart to not predict anything.

 

[FredJacket]

It's one thing to care. It's another to let it affect your happiness. (I don't think you do let it affect your happiness.) When listening/watching any game (not just GT baseball) doesn't make me feel good, I just don't listen/watch. I also have stopped watching games where I am only rooting for someone to lose. Tonight, I'll check the stats during the game and listen to WREK if we aren't embarrassing ourselves again.

I hope we make the ACC tourney and the NCAA tourney. But even if we do, we are unlikely to go very far. So my interest this year is largely done. After the year is over, maybe before the ACC tourney unless we get better, I'll think about next year. We *should* have better pitching next year. But after making a fool of myself expecting better pitching this year, I'd be smart to not predict anything.

You are correct. It has no impact on my happiness. The main "why do I care" thing is seeing/knowing the time I waste paying attention.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

You are correct. It has no impact on my happiness. The main "why do I care" thing is seeing/knowing the time I waste paying attention.

http://www.aesopfables.com/cgi/aesop1.cgi?4&TheScorpionandtheFrog

 

[FredJacket]

I know there are 2 mid-week games ahead of the upcoming ACC weekend... but; mark it down. LOW POINT of season is right now. Translation... I still believe better things are ahead. The team can still salvage something (i.e. ACC tournament berth); and in a lot of ways, controls its own destiny.

This coming weekend is a real opportunity to make up ground. The bad news... we're on the road. The rest of the weekend's schedule is promising. We should be excited about making up ground. Here is the schedule of the 6 teams at the bottom of the conference (I really HATE having to couch things in these terms... but cannot adjust the facts). Anyway... these 6 teams are fighting for final 4 spots in the ACC tournament.
1) ND (7-11) @ UVA
2) PITT (7-11) v UNC
3) DUKE (7-11) @ LOU
4) VT (7-11) v GT
5) GT (4-14) @ VT
6) BC (3-15) v NCST

With VT, PITT, & DUKE all still ahead of us on the schedule... just gotta find a way to win those series (sweeps preferred).

 

[FredJacket]

Evidence of how difficult our schedule has been.... our RPI is 8th in the ACC behind:
UNC, CLEM, LOU, UVA, WF, FSU, & NCST. We've already played 4 of these teams... only have 1 of them left on our schedule.

Funny (really not funny)... we have a record of 1-5 against the 2 teams we've already played behind us in RPI: Miami and ND

 

[MWBATL]

Evidence of how difficult our schedule has been.... our RPI is 8th in the ACC behind:
UNC, CLEM, LOU, UVA, WF, FSU, & NCST. We've already played 4 of these teams... only have 1 of them left on our schedule.

Funny (really not funny)... we have a record of 1-5 against the 2 teams we've already played behind us in RPI: Miami and ND

Just shows how poor a measuring stick that RPI really is..

 

[FredJacket]

Just shows how poor a measuring stick that RPI really is..

At the risk of appearing to contradict myself... you are correct!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Evidence of how difficult our schedule has been.... our RPI is 8th in the ACC behind:
UNC, CLEM, LOU, UVA, WF, FSU, & NCST. We've already played 4 of these teams... only have 1 of them left on our schedule.

Funny (really not funny)... we have a record of 1-5 against the 2 teams we've already played behind us in RPI: Miami and ND

First, I commend your optimism that we are at the low point of the season in the face of the facts. We may be. My ability to predict future performance is as good as ........ the team's season performance to date.

With a 4-14 ACC record, there is no good way to sugar coat that we have played bad baseball. Against good teams and against weak teams, we haven't discriminated. 4-5 against all teams in the 101-200 RPI is pretty bad. Yet 6-10 against the 1-50 RPI teams. RPI isn't a great measuring stick, but I don't know of a better one. At least it is an objective fact as opposed to the policy / feeling of the day.

 

[FredJacket]

First, I commend your optimism....

Thank you. I've learned that optimism is not like a tank of fuel or pitcher of beer. It's more like LOVE & JOY ...crap like that... where there really is an infinite supply. Just gotta somehow resist the forces keeping you from tapping into it.

Right now... those forces are indeed... the facts.

Go Jackets!!!

 

[FredJacket]

Weekend review regarding our plight at making ACC Tournament field:
As the weekend action ends...
BC just swept NCST and is 5-1 in their last 2 weekends. Suddenly NCST is in reach AND BC is a team with life.

There are 2 teams at 6-15 (remaining series in parentheses):
GT (Pitt; @Duke; UVA)
BC (Mia; @WF; ND)

There are now 5 teams at 8-13
NCST (VT; @Pitt; Clem)
ND (Duke; Lou; @BC)
Duke (@ND; GT; @UNC)
Pitt (@GT; NCST; @WF)
VT (@NCST; UNC; @Mia)

We need to finish higher than 2 of the 6 in the mix here. The path exists and it's not crazy. We should be able to get past at least 2 of those teams.

Reasons to be positive:
-We have tiebreaker over VT should we finished tied with them
-We still have to play Pitt and Duke; therefore, have quite a bit of control over our own situation
-Quite a few of these teams will face one-another (i.e. impossible for all of them to get too far away from us)
-Duke plays us at home; but must travel to ND and UNC
-Pitt has 2 road series left (GT, WF) and a now desperate NCST at home
-VT has 2 road series left (NCST, Mia) and a tough UNC squad at home
-With same record as BC right now.. we just need to win more than them over final 9 games

Reasons to be pissed:
ND series... its hindsight (should avoid these thoughts); buuuuut how did we allow them to sweep us? Killer!

Reasons to do all you can to 'divorce' yourself from this team (I can't....but perhaps you can save yourself):
UVA series to end the season. We will likely have not "locked up" a tournament spot going into the final weekend. UVA will come to Atlanta. UVA is very good. Incredible heartbreak in final weekend of the season is sooooooo "this team".

 

[RoosterJacket]

Reasons to be pissed:
ND series... its hindsight (should avoid these thoughts); buuuuut how did we allow them to sweep us? Killer!

Add to this section:
Blowing win vs Louisville in the 9th
Blowing win vs VT in 8th

 

[THWG]

Add to this section:
Blowing win vs Louisville in the 9th
Blowing win vs VT in 8th

Blowing opening game against Miami
Blowing opening and closing game against UNC (should have been a sweep for us)

 

[FredJacket]

Walking and chewing gum at same time… follow the Jackets as they travel to Chicago while squarely focusing on ACC action that impacts Tech’s making the ACC tournament field.

To review…here are the ‘bottom 7’ in the standings. We must finish in the top 5 of this group:

NCST: 8-13
ND: 8-13
DUKE: 8-13
PITT: 8-13
VT: 8-13
GT: 6-15
BC: 6-15

ACC Action of relevance:

VT @ NCST: VT is 1-8 on the road in ACC. Swept by Pitt and Clemson. NCST has to be primed for a turn around after being swept by BC last weekend. I think this bodes well for Ga Tech. I expect VT to win 1 game max. Very possible they’ll be swept. That would be very good. While things could change, I expect NCST to never be in reach…and I’m pinning a lot of hopes on VT being a team on the outside looking in (tournament-wise) when the ACC regular season ends. After this NCST series, they get UNC in Blacksburg and then travel to Miami. They could finish season with only 8 or 9 wins.


DUKE @ ND: Duke is 3-6 on road in ACC. Winning 1 game in each of their 3 road series. Not sure what to “wish for” here. We still have Duke ahead of us in the schedule (@Duke). Would be nice for both of these teams to remain in striking distance. We would lose a tiebreaker with ND if it came down to a 2-way tie with them. Therefore; I’d lean toward hoping Duke takes this series 2-1. They both have similar (tough) schedules remaining too. Duke has a series @ UNC to finish season. ND still has Louisville ahead of them and a trip to BC...which seems to be a hard place for average to below average teams to get wins.

MIA @ BC: BC is hot. 5-1 in their last 6 ACC games including a sweep of NCST last weekend. If BC happens to win this series, I will change my tune and “believe” they are for real and a concern.

Interesting... there are only 4 teams yet to record a series sweep in ACC play: Ga Tech, NCST, Duke, & Miami. So.. how hard can it be?? (tic) I feel like we have one coming with Pitt.. but I'm getting ahead of myself. We can just have a "practice sweep" this weekend in Chicago.

My hope is alive. Go Jackets!!... and go all those other teams that we need to "help" us.

 

[senoiajacket]

Walking and chewing gum at same time… follow the Jackets as they travel to Chicago while squarely focusing on ACC action that impacts Tech’s making the ACC tournament field.

To review…here are the ‘bottom 7’ in the standings. We must finish in the top 5 of this group:

NCST: 8-13
ND: 8-13
DUKE: 8-13
PITT: 8-13
VT: 8-13
GT: 6-15
BC: 6-15

ACC Action of relevance:

VT @ NCST: VT is 1-8 on the road in ACC. Swept by Pitt and Clemson. NCST has to be primed for a turn around after being swept by BC last weekend. I think this bodes well for Ga Tech. I expect VT to win 1 game max. Very possible they’ll be swept. That would be very good. While things could change, I expect NCST to never be in reach…and I’m pinning a lot of hopes on VT being a team on the outside looking in (tournament-wise) when the ACC regular season ends. After this NCST series, they get UNC in Blacksburg and then travel to Miami. They could finish season with only 8 or 9 wins.


DUKE @ ND: Duke is 3-6 on road in ACC. Winning 1 game in each of their 3 road series. Not sure what to “wish for” here. We still have Duke ahead of us in the schedule (@Duke). Would be nice for both of these teams to remain in striking distance. We would lose a tiebreaker with ND if it came down to a 2-way tie with them. Therefore; I’d lean toward hoping Duke takes this series 2-1. They both have similar (tough) schedules remaining too. Duke has a series @ UNC to finish season. ND still has Louisville ahead of them and a trip to BC...which seems to be a hard place for average to below average teams to get wins.

MIA @ BC: BC is hot. 5-1 in their last 6 ACC games including a sweep of NCST last weekend. If BC happens to win this series, I will change my tune and “believe” they are for real and a concern.

Interesting... there are only 4 teams yet to record a series sweep in ACC play: Ga Tech, NCST, Duke, & Miami. So.. how hard can it be?? (tic) I feel like we have one coming with Pitt.. but I'm getting ahead of myself. We can just have a "practice sweep" this weekend in Chicago.

My hope is alive. Go Jackets!!... and go all those other teams that we need to "help" us.

I'm going with pulling for ND vs Duke and then "planning" on us taking care of bidness against the Dookies. Mainly because we already blew our chance w/ ND but somewhat control our destinity w Duke.

I always pull for Tech to win & put themselves in the best possible position, but there is a part of me that feels like we are better off if we don't make the ACC tournament (this is completely from a fans perspective). Unless things change (and there has been little to indicate they will) we have no shot of making any noise in the tournament , so it will be just another disappointing waste of time. I am trying not to think that way, but there is a little guy on my shoulder who keeps telling me that. Anyone else admit to that?