1/24/2018 - GT @ FSU

[Peacone36]

The development of AD does give me some comfort for next year. A couple weeks ago I looked at next year as being really really bad. Devoe is an immediate impact guy and Alvarado will hopefully be better at running an offense as a sophomore. I really hate to waste JoshO like we did MGH.

 

[GTJason]

Am I the only one who feels like we're not running a team offense like we did last year?

I was thinking about this a lot last night. Where is the "violent cutting to the basket" Pastner was talking about last year? He emphasized it a lot. The conclusion I came to is also our biggest problem: turnovers. We can't thread the needle on passes cutting to the basket when we can't even go around the horn a few times without throwing it out of bounds. This is where I think we miss Q and Heath the most. I remember when Pastner first came in and was running drills he kept yelling at guys dribbling a lot telling them they're giving the ball a headache and to keep the pace moving. I don't think we can do that until the game slows down a bit for Alvarado. One think that baffles me and is a skill that is taught to young kids playing basketball is know where you are going before you start dribbling. I've seen a bunch of our players catch a pass, take 2 dribbles, and then pick up the ball. That's a turnover waiting to happen on the trap and not many refs are going to call a foul when you make a bonehead play like that.

TBH, none of us thought we were going to beat UVA, UNC, or FSU. It would have been nice, it was great to be 3-3 in the ACC, but we're just not there yet. Good news is we're due for a upset to give us unrealistic expectations soon. Hope it's Clemson this weekend.

 

[GTJake]

I don't see a lot of games, but got to watch this one, so here are a couple of comments;
1. The "ole" defense" on drives to the basket is NOT working
2. Half-court offense if that's what you call it looked (not sure what word to use here .. lost, confused, out of sync ??)
In the ACC for the most part it's the "haves" vs the "have-nots", we have been on the "have-not" side for far too long.
I'm not sure if Pastner is the guy or not, I gave up on Cremins way too early so I won't do that again ... but if he is the guy, he better start recruiting his a** off !

 

[ramblinwreck1378]

A few notes about last night's game.

1. I'll steal a phrase from CPJ re: Jay Jones on Alvarado's play "Something's going to happen when he's got the ball". Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad. His turnovers frustrate me to no end, but there's no knocking his effort and toughness.
2. We let FSU dictate the pace of the game last night, and with our personnel, it did not benefit us. Our transition defense is very bad. Very bad. And FSU, specifically Mann, exposed that. When we were able to get into half court sets, we looked much better defensively.
3. CGB has to give more on the offensive end. If he's not on, fine, but in those cases, he's got to find other ways to contribute (attacking defensive gaps, crashing the boards, being a threat at all with the ball in his hands).
4. I didn't think Lammers played as poorly as others are saying on here. His role has changed significantly from last year - last year the guy playing AD's spot was Q, who preferred to be on the perimeter, which essentially cleared things out for Lammers to work anywhere within 15 ft of the basket. Now there's another gold jersey in there, which muddies things up and has forced Lammers to play further away from the basket. I'm with Peac in that I don't really understand why you'd sacrifice one of your top player's productivity for someone like AD to have mild success, but that's not my call.
5. Tadric. Sigh. I specifically remember an inbounds play underneath our own basket where Lammers is standing wide open in the corner, and Tadric elects to inbound the ball to someone underneath the goal where there are several FSU jerseys, which leads to a fast break lay-up. He just doesn't play smart. But this is what you get with him, and we all just need to accept that.
6. Okogie is the least of our worries right now, and people complaining about him need to open their eyes. The guy had 16 and 16 last night and gave maximum effort - I had no issues with his performance.
7A. I didn't really have an issue with the officiating. Sure there were questionable calls on us, but there were on FSU too. I will say, Mann does a great job of really selling contact - there were a few times I thought our guys went straight up and he drew a foul, but props to him on realizing contact was being called and taking advantage of it.
7B. However, on the topic of officiating, they need to figure out how to call games consistently from game to game. It's tough to adjust from a UNC game where nothing is called to a game like last night where virtually everything is called in a matter of days.

On to Clemson, which almost feels like a must-win at this point in the season, especially without Grantham.

 

[RamblinRed]

I thought the progression to the program would be like this
Yr 1 - 8-10 wins
Yr 2 - 13-15 wins
Yr 3 - 17-18 wins
Yr 4 - 20+ wins

We got 17 in the regular season last year (one against a Div 2 team).
We are likely headed to the 13-15 mark this season.
So we are pretty much on pace for my 4 yr process expectations. We just exceeded expectations last year and will likely hit expectations this year.
Given we are not looking to bring in alot of high 4 and 5 star type players it is simply going to take time to see if we can make this get old, stay old model work. I don't expect to be able to shortcut the time necessary to get there.

I don't have any problems with Josh's first recruiting class. Remember he did not have any assts hired until after the Spring 2016 AAU season was over. We basically made the decision to give up on having a big 2017 class to make sure we got the right assts instead. Alvarado has been better than I expected and Curtis is going to be fine. We'll know in 2 more years if Wright and Cole pan out.


Last night was really poor defense.
TO's are absolutely killing this team. They need to be about 10 per game.
Jackson has been beyond bad the last 2 games. lots of TO and fouls, no baskets.

Alvarado is coming along but he is upside down on assts to TO. That needs to change. In some ways he is more a SG right now than a PG - though that is partially out of necessity since none of the other guards except JO are producing right now.
Curtis needs to find his shot. He has missed his last 9 three pt attempts. It feels like he is being asked to be a three point marksman right now.
Lammers is getting a little better but is not close to what he was last year.
AD is coming along nicely. Only thing holding him back is fouls. He is currently 2nd on the team in FT% in ACC Games behind JO (excluding Curtis being 2-2), first in FG%.
AD's efficiency numbers are better than Ben's on a per min basis but behind him on a per game basis because Ben plays more min.

looking at efficiency metrics just in ACC games it sort of works out like this based on metrics for past year's.
JO - All-ACC level
Lammers - solid ACC starter (way below his efficiency level of last seasont though)
Gueye - solid ACC starter
Alvarado - low end ACC level starter (his metrics are now above Heath's. if he could reduce his TO and increase Assists his efficiency numbers will shoot up quickly to solid ACC starter level)
Jackson - low end ACC starter (his metrics are now below his metrics from last season)
Alston - deep reserve
Haywood - deep reserve (will move up to backup if he can start to shoot better)

it was well known before the season that winning this year was going to rely heavily on the big 3 returnees. Unfortunately at this time 2 of the 3 are playing at a level below last season. There is simply no way this year's team can win many ACC games unless Jackson and Lammers start to significantly up their games - at least to last year's levels.

 

[lv20gt]

I disagree with those who say that we are sacrificing Lammer's play for AD's. Ben was almost never a low post player last year. He was mainly used at the high post and most of his offense came from the elbow jumpers or off those turn around fades from the no man's land between the post and the 3 point line. AD going to the low block isn't what is pulling Ben further away. He can still go the high post and still do most of the stuff he did last year except the rare case he tried to drive from the high post.

What is hurting Ben is that he is having to go out further to help relieve pressure that is being put on our guards. The past couple of games teams are starting to deny more passes to our guards and we haven't been able to take advantage of that, partially because Jose is a freshman and isn't asserting himself enough to go get the ball and run the team, and partially because we don't really have any wings that are also good ball handlers to help out.

AD is a better low post player than Ben, and Ben can still work his stuff from the high post position. The problem is we don't have any 3 guard combination that has been able to prevent the need for Ben to come further out to relieve the pressure.

Also, I think people are underselling just hood good AD has been lately. He's averaging about 12 a game over the last 6 on 29/44 (66%) shooting and his ppg would have been a bit higher if we didn't willingly go small against UVA and only play him 17 min despite only having 1 foul. Ben is still giving us around 10-12 a game, and so we are getting more production from them combined the way we are running things than if we were to go back to what we were trying to do early in the year. Ben might be losing 3-4 ppg but AD is gaining 8 or so.

The real issue is with the guards, not with AD being at the block.

 

[jayparr]

Desperately need to start getting top 100 recruits on the roster. Can't have a roster full of projects and expect to make the tournament

When Cremins was coaching we were disappointed if we did not get at least 1 top 10 rec every single year!!!!

 

[Connell62]

I disagree with those who say that we are sacrificing Lammer's play for AD's. Ben was almost never a low post player last year. He was mainly used at the high post and most of his offense came from the elbow jumpers or off those turn around fades from the no man's land between the post and the 3 point line. AD going to the low block isn't what is pulling Ben further away. He can still go the high post and still do most of the stuff he did last year except the rare case he tried to drive from the high post.

What is hurting Ben is that he is having to go out further to help relieve pressure that is being put on our guards. The past couple of games teams are starting to deny more passes to our guards and we haven't been able to take advantage of that, partially because Jose is a freshman and isn't asserting himself enough to go get the ball and run the team, and partially because we don't really have any wings that are also good ball handlers to help out.

AD is a better low post player than Ben, and Ben can still work his stuff from the high post position. The problem is we don't have any 3 guard combination that has been able to prevent the need for Ben to come further out to relieve the pressure.

Also, I think people are underselling just hood good AD has been lately. He's averaging about 12 a game over the last 6 on 29/44 (66%) shooting and his ppg would have been a bit higher if we didn't willingly go small against UVA and only play him 17 min despite only having 1 foul. Ben is still giving us around 10-12 a game, and so we are getting more production from them combined the way we are running things than if we were to go back to what we were trying to do early in the year. Ben might be losing 3-4 ppg but AD is gaining 8 or so.

The real issue is with the guards, not with AD being at the block.

I agree with this 100%...If Ben were on the low-block, where everyone says he should be, do you need he would be producing? Personally, I don't.. I think that he is better suited in the high-post.

Maybe its just me, but I never remember Ben operating in the paint like AD has over the recent stretch. He's become a true post player and pretty darn good one to boot.

Just my perception, but the problem with Ben seems to be aggressiveness. He's not aggressive looking for his shot, on the offensive boards (because he's being pulled out like Iv20 pointed out), or even defensively.

Multiple times last night he got sealed on drives and lay-ups - that cannot happen. It just seems like he's not as plugged-in.

 

[YlJacket]

I think there is an element of "sacrificing" Ben as we don't play a true double post and AD flashing from the block to the foul line pretty much takes Ben out of that spot. He is now looking for cuts and mid range wing jumpers. But the final comment about the combination of them being the key concept is what CJP is looking at. I still ain't sold on playing Lammers at the 4 on offense but the combination from the 2 of them tells me it isn't as bad as it looks or I percieve it.

 

[MiracleWhips]

IMO I really believe you have to have AD or been coming off the bench.

 

[g0lftime]

We weren't finishing shots at the rim last night. Almost looked like we were trying to draw fouls that weren't called. Tadrick got to the rim and couldn't finish and that is his game. Okogie had same thing. Okogie and Jose are best at creating their own shot off the dribble. Haywood seems to be trying to find how he fits in the offense. We need his outside shot. Ben gets caught in the corner and well guarded so he is not in good scoring or rebounding position. Pastner may be experimenting to see what will work best. We seem to struggle in half court offense.

 

[Peacone36]

I guess I don’t know why we don’t emulate what the spurs did during Duncan’s rookie season. They utilized Robinson’s passing ability/mid range game at the high post and put Timmy on the block. Ben has shown he also has the ability to pass and knock that shot down. It looks like AD has vastly improved his footwork so he might be able to work that out. I’m guessing the reason is due to our lack of shooters we can’t create enough space for them to operate

 

[kg01]

I guess I don’t know why we don’t emulate what the spurs did during Duncan’s rookie season. They utilized Robinson’s passing ability/mid range game at the high post and put Timmy on the block. Ben has shown he also has the ability to pass and knock that shot down. It looks like AD has vastly improved his footwork so he might be able to work that out. I’m guessing the reason is due to our lack of shooters we can’t create enough space for them to operate

I'm confused. So you do know why we don't emulate what the Spurs did?

I'll take 'He answered his own question' for $1000, Alex.

Seriously though, it's mind-boggling how difficult it's been for us to recruit shooters.

 

[Peacone36]

I'm confused. So you do know why we don't emulate what the Spurs did?

I'll take 'He answered his own question' for $1000, Alex.

Seriously though, it's mind-boggling how difficult it's been for us to recruit shooters.

You ever come to the conclusion right in the middle of asking the question? I just rode it out...

 

[Milwaukee]

I thought the progression to the program would be like this
Yr 1 - 8-10 wins
Yr 2 - 13-15 wins
Yr 3 - 17-18 wins
Yr 4 - 20+ wins

We got 17 in the regular season last year (one against a Div 2 team).
We are likely headed to the 13-15 mark this season.
So we are pretty much on pace for my 4 yr process expectations. We just exceeded expectations last year and will likely hit expectations this year.
Given we are not looking to bring in alot of high 4 and 5 star type players it is simply going to take time to see if we can make this get old, stay old model work. I don't expect to be able to shortcut the time necessary to get there.

I don't have any problems with Josh's first recruiting class. Remember he did not have any assts hired until after the Spring 2016 AAU season was over. We basically made the decision to give up on having a big 2017 class to make sure we got the right assts instead. Alvarado has been better than I expected and Curtis is going to be fine. We'll know in 2 more years if Wright and Cole pan out.


Last night was really poor defense.
TO's are absolutely killing this team. They need to be about 10 per game.
Jackson has been beyond bad the last 2 games. lots of TO and fouls, no baskets.

Alvarado is coming along but he is upside down on assts to TO. That needs to change. In some ways he is more a SG right now than a PG - though that is partially out of necessity since none of the other guards except JO are producing right now.
Curtis needs to find his shot. He has missed his last 9 three pt attempts. It feels like he is being asked to be a three point marksman right now.
Lammers is getting a little better but is not close to what he was last year.
AD is coming along nicely. Only thing holding him back is fouls. He is currently 2nd on the team in FT% in ACC Games behind JO (excluding Curtis being 2-2), first in FG%.
AD's efficiency numbers are better than Ben's on a per min basis but behind him on a per game basis because Ben plays more min.

looking at efficiency metrics just in ACC games it sort of works out like this based on metrics for past year's.
JO - All-ACC level
Lammers - solid ACC starter (way below his efficiency level of last seasont though)
Gueye - solid ACC starter
Alvarado - low end ACC level starter (his metrics are now above Heath's. if he could reduce his TO and increase Assists his efficiency numbers will shoot up quickly to solid ACC starter level)
Jackson - low end ACC starter (his metrics are now below his metrics from last season)
Alston - deep reserve
Haywood - deep reserve (will move up to backup if he can start to shoot better)

it was well known before the season that winning this year was going to rely heavily on the big 3 returnees. Unfortunately at this time 2 of the 3 are playing at a level below last season. There is simply no way this year's team can win many ACC games unless Jackson and Lammers start to significantly up their games - at least to last year's levels.

It shouldn't take 4 years to rebuild an ACC basketball team, especially when one player can change your entire program. I'm a big Pastner fan btw but I have much loftier expectations for next year than you. We better win 20 next year imo.

 

[RamblinRed]

It shouldn't take 4 years to rebuild an ACC basketball team, especially when one player can change your entire program. I'm a big Pastner fan btw but I have much loftier expectations for next year than you. We better win 20 next year imo.

it's going to take 4 yrs if you are dedicated to going to a get old, stay old model basically from scratch.
That takes multiple recruiting classes and then allowing them to gain experience.
We are largely not recruiting the 'one player who can change a program' types. We are recruiting more in a UVA or ND type mold. Guys who have alot of potential to be ACC players during their career - but not as FR.

Also keep in mind i am talking about 20 regular season wins - excluding any postseason victories.

 

[lv20gt]

I guess I don’t know why we don’t emulate what the spurs did during Duncan’s rookie season. They utilized Robinson’s passing ability/mid range game at the high post and put Timmy on the block. Ben has shown he also has the ability to pass and knock that shot down. It looks like AD has vastly improved his footwork so he might be able to work that out. I’m guessing the reason is due to our lack of shooters we can’t create enough space for them to operate

I think in theory that's basically what we want to do. But Ben keeps getting drawn further out to help the guards. I think the lack of shooters contributes, but it's more a product of a freshman PG not really taking control of the offense like he nees to combined with wings that don't have good point guard skills.

It shouldn't take 4 years to rebuild an ACC basketball team, especially when one player can change your entire program. I'm a big Pastner fan btw but I have much loftier expectations for next year than you. We better win 20 next year imo.

First off one player can change the entire program, for a single year until he decides to go pro. That also means we have to attract that level of player that every single school wants, and you expect us to land that with no momentum recruiting wise, no recent history of relevance, and an overall terrible pitch when compared to teams being coached by hall of famers that have played in and sometimes won national championships? On top of that it isn't just any one and done that will change the program. Add a 5* center to this team wouldn't change much. It'd have to be a guy capable of carrying a team, as a freshman. Those are few and far between.

Secondly, Pastner inherited not a single reliable, proven player and an overall weak recruiting class (yes Okogie was good but it was a one man class). When that is the case, yes, it does take 3 to 4 years because that's how long it takes for freshmen to become upperclassmen and get the level of experienced needed if you can't rely on bringing in one and dones every year which we have no reason to expect that we can. When the team you inherit doesn't have an ACC level PG, which sorry but Heath wasn't, and the recruiting class you inherit doesn't even feature one, Moore was recruited after Pastner got here, then how do you expect to rebuild before year 3 or 4 when that is the earliest that you could have an upperclassman PG?

The only answer is through grad transfers, and if anyone actually thinks that is the path to success after the mess it got us into, then that's on you.

 

[Milwaukee]

it's going to take 4 yrs if you are dedicated to going to a get old, stay old model basically from scratch.
That takes multiple recruiting classes and then allowing them to gain experience.
We are largely not recruiting the 'one player who can change a program' types. We are recruiting more in a UVA or ND type mold. Guys who have alot of potential to be ACC players during their career - but not as FR.

Also keep in mind i am talking about 20 regular season wins - excluding any postseason victories.

Very good points.

 

[OG-T]

FSU REPORT CARD
Refs — B+. I thought they were solid, and more favorable to us than not in the first half.
Coaching — B. I think we were ready to play, but I do believe CJP is still figuring things out, rotation (Ben/Josh time; quick yanks for mistakes, etc.); just tough when we're 20 games in. It doesn't feel like "tinkering", feels like trial and error and it's almost Feb.
Lammers — B-. Shooting in limited attempts was nice, but 2 TOTAL rebs, and 1 blk. He reminds me of 7'0" Matt Geiger at Tech (a baby face, and a little soft in college), then he gets to pros, shaves his head, grows facial hair and becomes much more physical, signs multi-MM contract. C'mon, Ben, let it out now! I'll add that Ben does not look 100%; looks like hip or motion injury (and not the ankle). He looked this way entering last year's NIT - one person's opinion.
Gueye — B+. ANOTHER solid game. Strong from field, and FT line. Other teams HAVE to prepare for him. Only complaint was limited to 23 mins because of fouls.
Okogie — B. Strong on Boards (offensive, too), and strong at FT line; 5 Assts. Shooting pct just hurt and 4 TOs, but when he's active on boards, it makes him active everywhere.
Jackson — D-. This and UNC do not make Sr Night highlight reel. His performance eliminated chance for W.
Alvarado — B. Obviously, our PG cannot consistently get us to victory with 1Asst and 4TOs, BUT, he is a gamer. Taking it to 7'4" center for and1, and drilling 3s when we're desperate for buckets. He's not afraid, and not afraid to fail — wish all of the team had this mindset. Yes, we pay for his young mistakes, but he's a great get for Tech.
Alston — B. 7 pts in 17 mins. He hit a few tough ones against ACC athletes, didn't think he could do this. Glad to see.
Haywood — C-. Just another tough game. He does NOT look healthy. Looks really gimpy, and clearly that's impacting his 20+ foot shots. The base is off.
Cole – C+. His confidence clearly looks like it's regressed, but he grabbed a couple boards, and generally seems to look for contact. Hope he gets time — even 5 mins — going forward; he'll come back next year better from it.

Not much time passed since CJP experienced his new 3-game losing streak. I'm optimistic we start a 3-game winning streak ... nothing wrong with 6-4 in ACC.

 

[GT_EE78]

I thought the progression to the program would be like this
Yr 1 - 8-10 wins
Yr 2 - 13-15 wins
Yr 3 - 17-18 wins
Yr 4 - 20+ wins

We got 17 in the regular season last year (one against a Div 2 team).
We are likely headed to the 13-15 mark this season.
So we are pretty much on pace for my 4 yr process expectations. We just exceeded expectations last year and will likely hit expectations this year.
Given we are not looking to bring in alot of high 4 and 5 star type players it is simply going to take time to see if we can make this get old, stay old model work. I don't expect to be able to shortcut the time necessary to get there.

Are you sure that "get old,stay old" is really a strategy rather than CJP's way of mitigating last years recruiting disappointment? Striking out on the dozen or so 4/5 star guys from the Atlanta area was a legendary letdown. I thought we were paying him the big bucks to get some of those 4/5 star types! If we only recruited lesser talented folks so they would stay 4 years , i'm not sure how that would work out. Personally i don't think he;s really trying to do that (except as his back up plan) . CJP is quite good at the PR part of the job. (which is a good thing) . Thanks for doing great writeups.I always enjoy reading them.