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  1. roadkill

    Stats models and rankings

    Early in the season most of us seemed ready to pencil in a W for UVA, but expected Syracuse to be a tough out. Based on the season thus far, I have those predictions flipped. Despite their W/L record, UVA has been in most of their games, have played good teams close, and are trending up...
  2. roadkill

    Stats models and rankings

    If anyone had told me at the end of last season that we would improve from bottom quartile to top quartile in total offense I would not have believed them. Very impressive. Hope this continues.
  3. roadkill

    CFP Discussion

    Since no one has posted this yet, here you go:
  4. roadkill

    Game 8 #UNCvsGT Postgame

    Pretty sure it was Janneh. Ideal type for block attempts from the edge - speed and length.
  5. roadkill

    Game 8 #UNCvsGT Postgame

    I saw that as well and thought the same thing. In hindsight, Janneh's technique makes perfect sense for a couple of reasons. A. As you said, you don't want to risk a roughing penalty. B. With the exception of our prior struggles, most kickers can get the kick in the air before an attacker...
  6. roadkill

    From the UNC perspective…

    Perhaps someone more knowledgeable than I regarding defensive alignments and such can chime in on how/if we changed.
  7. roadkill

    From the UNC perspective…

    I ran into a paywall for that article and wasn’t able to scroll without providing them with info. Here’s a UNC podcast that isn’t paywalled: https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina/article/the-day-after-a-telling-defeat-for-unc-north-carolina-football-georgia-tech-219112583/ It's 80%...
  8. roadkill

    Boston College Post Game Thread

    @slugboy, I have great respect and appreciation for your posts on this board. But I’m going to pick apart your last post because, well, it’s an easy target. Although you wouldn’t know it from reading many of the posts on this board, I suspect we both know that coaching, execution, scheme...
  9. roadkill

    Boston College Post Game Thread

    This statement is an oversimplification. Did you not consider the variables of coaching and its subset, execution? The talent composite has been shown to strongly correlate with team performance, and if not exactly, at least at a tier level. I think one aspect of the disconnect is that even...
  10. roadkill

    Upcoming Boston College game

    This game will be an interesting case of strength vs. weakness. We have a very good passing game (when was the last time I could say that?), against BC’s poor pass defense. Conversely, BC has a very good run game, against our poor run defense. Normally that would be an indicator of a...
  11. roadkill

    Stats models and rankings

    Thanks for your comprehensive response. Your statement that there is no such thing as a successful bend-don’t-break defense is interesting and certainly seems correct for most of the top defenses. Like Oklahoma, we are living by turnovers for our wins. Is bend-don’t-break really a concept, or...
  12. roadkill

    Stats models and rankings

    I can see both sides of the argument over the utility of this stat. (After I finally overcame my semantic confusion over y'all's use of the term "available yards", which is just a function of starting field position x # of drives, when you actually mean the ratio of actual yards to available...
  13. roadkill

    Upcoming Boston College game

    I found it interesting that he recognized we haven't seemed to play as well at home, and looked into factors that are different so that he could address them.
  14. roadkill

    Early BC spread

    Clearly, we wasted a lot of dough on guarantee games during the TFG era, but we wasted a lot more than that on coaching salaries! I’d like to think that we may have gotten some value out of the BG loss by way of it being a wake-up call for the team and the catalyst for some coaching changes...
  15. roadkill

    Early BC spread

    Aren't all the teams you listed D1 (FBS)? Regardless, I'd like to see all of our ACC opponents have two quality P5 opponents in their OOC slate.
  16. roadkill

    Early BC spread

    BC's OOC schedule is a joke. Zero P5 teams. Had they not lost to Northern Illinois, they would only need to win 2 conference games to make a bowl. I've been a proponent of a less challenging OOC schedule while we rebuild our program. I'd also like to see some leadership from the ACC to force...
  17. roadkill

    Early BC spread

    I see this being about a 3-point game, perhaps 27-24. ;)
  18. roadkill

    CFP Discussion

    First, thanks for sharing the CPI poll. It appears to take the same basic approach as Colley but limits the computation to two orders (opponents opponents), whereas Colley uses a matrix method to include all opponents (I think - but his math is over my head). Not surprising that the results are...
  19. roadkill

    CFP Discussion

    Colley had Colorado ranked 10th after three games. There were 39 total 3-0 teams at that point. Colley's model computed Colorado's SoS based on W-L records of the teams they played. Colley's makes no claims of accuracy 3 games in, it's just data in, data out. It is not intended to be...
  20. roadkill

    CFP Discussion

    Incorrect. Colleys makes no assumptions. It is results-based only.
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