Your choice for Head Coach

[slugboy]

the only thing about Fritz would be his age at 62 how much longer would be coach. Malzahn I don't know much about him

He could coach for another 10 years, but he probably would not be interested in a multi-year rebuild.

Age may not even be the big factor—the average coach lasts about 5 years in their job. There are some coaches that get to stay in their job for a while, but most college coaches have been at their current job for less than 5 years. If you’re taking this job, you should have a plan to turn things around quickly and your goal should be to be good in a few years.

Even if you’re a 35-year old hot shot, if your team isn’t looking good in 3 years, you won’t be in the job for 5. Why take a job that will be a slog for 3-4 years before you get fired?

So, when I was looking to see how old some coaches are (there are a few 70+ year old head coaches like Saban and Brown), I found this: https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/coaching-carousel-study/ . The source isn’t a name brand, but it looks like they’ve put some thought into this and done their homework well.

If we’re going “name brand”, we’re looking at a P5 coordinator or position coach off of an established coaching tree like Meyer (formerly) at OSU or Saban (which I feel like is a popular SEC move). Odds of that are kind of low—looks like less that 25% depending how you put the odds together.

Hiring another P5 coach happens about 1 time out of 6, but a lot of that’s going to be USC taking Riley from Oklahoma or LSU getting Kelly or potentially Auburn taking Kiffin from Ole Miss. It could happen, but I’d say it’s a longer shot for us than even 1/6. Part of those odds is hiring someone who took a year off, so “retreads” fit in that category.

I’d split up the coaching spectrum a little differently:

1. the FBS royalty that are hugely profitable and have a lot of cash. I’d put Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, UGA, USC, Texas, TA&M, Penn State, LSU, and Notre Dame here. There may be some other schools that belong
2. The FBS profitable “haves” that are the next tier out: Arkansas, Ole Miss, FSU, Auburn, Kentucky, UNC, OkSt, Oregon, etc. Wisconsin would be here.
3. The upper middle class of schools that are getting by: Pitt, Wake, Arizona, TCU (who is having a fantastic year), frankly a lot of the ACC and B12 and part of the P12, UCF and some of the better G5 schools
4. Struggling teams: GT, (maybe) Nebraska, Arizona State
5. The silent majority: Lots of AAC and SunBelt and other low resource teams. Georgia State would fall in here.
6. The FBS doormats: UConn, UMass, schools perennially in the bottom 30.

That’s off the top of my head. The poaching of coaches is usually going to go “up”. Malzahn went to UCF, but that’s the exception, and he was a fired coach. A lot of the hires of “existing P5 head coaches” or coordinators is a redemption tour in G5, like Kiffin down at Florida Atlantic. Otherwise, you’re generally going from a lower tier to a higher tier as coaches work their way up.

Four years ago we were getting by, but having some issues. In this thread we’ve talked a lot about how much we’re willing to spend on a coach, but not as clearly about how attractive we are to a coach. If we hire a G5 coach or young up-and-comer, it’s not a budget issue—they’re coming here to make their bones.

Or, you’re looking at a coach on a “redemption arc” that wants to show that they still have it or that has something to prove.

We talk a lot about Leipold, but he just proved it at Kansas. Dave Clawson proved it at Wake. They don’t have anything to prove here.

In the “just maybe” category is an NFL coach who wants to show what they can do. But I don’t see us hiring a proven commodity, because I don’t think we’re in the category of jobs they’re looking at.

 

[Techwood Relict]

That’s off the top of my head

Off the top of my head he says.
Took you four days to put together that very well written, intelligent, in depth post..... Just saying bruh.
Back to the fanboy postings while I finish my coffee.

 

[Lotta Booze]

FWIW, Steven Godfrey on his SplitZone Duo podcast said Willie Fritz from Tulane and Bill Clark formerly with UAB had both expressed interest in the job. Either one would be a good ball coach and I think could win here. Fritz's age would be my main concern but maybe he could be a bit of a bridge coach, get our team to bowls, win some games, let the new AD work on the fundraising aspect so that when he does feel like hanging it up GT is in a better financial position to make a "splashier" hire.

 

[bikeseat]

If we're talking retreads, I would take Malzahn all day long. Keeps the option dorks occupied but know how's to make a P5 program hum. Not sure how motivated he is after the boatload of auburn cash in his bank following buyouts

 

[MWBATL]

Lane Kiffin is the hero we need.

You all know it. Anybody disagree? No?

As my Alabama contacts (who are convinced that Kiffin is going there as soon as Saban retires)...Kiffin is a perfect fit for Bama because he's crazy enough to think he can replace a legend but good enough that he just might pull it off. Think about how much money Bama is going to throw at him.....

 

[MWBATL]

He could coach for another 10 years, but he probably would not be interested in a multi-year rebuild.

Age may not even be the big factor—the average coach lasts about 5 years in their job. There are some coaches that get to stay in their job for a while, but most college coaches have been at their current job for less than 5 years. If you’re taking this job, you should have a plan to turn things around quickly and your goal should be to be good in a few years.

Even if you’re a 35-year old hot shot, if your team isn’t looking good in 3 years, you won’t be in the job for 5. Why take a job that will be a slog for 3-4 years before you get fired?

So, when I was looking to see how old some coaches are (there are a few 70+ year old head coaches like Saban and Brown), I found this: https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/coaching-carousel-study/ . The source isn’t a name brand, but it looks like they’ve put some thought into this and done their homework well.

If we’re going “name brand”, we’re looking at a P5 coordinator or position coach off of an established coaching tree like Meyer (formerly) at OSU or Saban (which I feel like is a popular SEC move). Odds of that are kind of low—looks like less that 25% depending how you put the odds together.

Hiring another P5 coach happens about 1 time out of 6, but a lot of that’s going to be USC taking Riley from Oklahoma or LSU getting Kelly or potentially Auburn taking Kiffin from Ole Miss. It could happen, but I’d say it’s a longer shot for us than even 1/6. Part of those odds is hiring someone who took a year off, so “retreads” fit in that category.

I’d split up the coaching spectrum a little differently:

1. the FBS royalty that are hugely profitable and have a lot of cash. I’d put Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, UGA, USC, Texas, TA&M, Penn State, LSU, and Notre Dame here. There may be some other schools that belong
2. The FBS profitable “haves” that are the next tier out: Arkansas, Ole Miss, FSU, Auburn, Kentucky, UNC, OkSt, Oregon, etc. Wisconsin would be here.
3. The upper middle class of schools that are getting by: Pitt, Wake, Arizona, TCU (who is having a fantastic year), frankly a lot of the ACC and B12 and part of the P12, UCF and some of the better G5 schools
4. Struggling teams: GT, (maybe) Nebraska, Arizona State
5. The silent majority: Lots of AAC and SunBelt and other low resource teams. Georgia State would fall in here.
6. The FBS doormats: UConn, UMass, schools perennially in the bottom 30.

That’s off the top of my head. The poaching of coaches is usually going to go “up”. Malzahn went to UCF, but that’s the exception, and he was a fired coach. A lot of the hires of “existing P5 head coaches” or coordinators is a redemption tour in G5, like Kiffin down at Florida Atlantic. Otherwise, you’re generally going from a lower tier to a higher tier as coaches work their way up.

Four years ago we were getting by, but having some issues. In this thread we’ve talked a lot about how much we’re willing to spend on a coach, but not as clearly about how attractive we are to a coach. If we hire a G5 coach or young up-and-comer, it’s not a budget issue—they’re coming here to make their bones.

Or, you’re looking at a coach on a “redemption arc” that wants to show that they still have it or that has something to prove.

We talk a lot about Leipold, but he just proved it at Kansas. Dave Clawson proved it at Wake. They don’t have anything to prove here.

In the “just maybe” category is an NFL coach who wants to show what they can do. But I don’t see us hiring a proven commodity, because I don’t think we’re in the category of jobs they’re looking at.


View attachment 13490

Excellent post. My one concern with the idea that a coach might only be here (say) 3 years is whether said coach proves he can recruit.

GT fans may be unusual because our coaches (usually) stay 6 plus years if they are successful. We think that's the norm.

 

[Randy Carson]

But I can never understand why folks judge any coach based on words. Why would you or anyone use pressers as any data point on being a head coach?

Oh, gee, I dunno...maybe it's because "out of the abundance of a man's heart his mouth speaks." (Lk 6:45)

We listen to what people say in order to gain insight into what we cannot see inside them...attitudes, motivations, beliefs. Sure, we may be deceived for a time, but eventually, usually, we recognize that something doesn't ring true...that there is dissonance between words and actions.

I don't think anyone here has enough data on IHCBK to make a firm judgment on his ability to coach a football team. We certainly don't know what he would have done differently working under a different HC. But I suspect there are changes that he has already implemented because he disagreed with the way things were being done over the past 3.3 years. And I suspect that he will make more in the off season if he is given the opportunity and the resource$ that are necessary.

 

[kg01]

I wouldn't hire Kiffin to walk my barn cat, much less to coach my football team. I think very little of his people skills.

"People skills"? These dudes aren't people, they're football players. Tell me what you think about his coaching skills, Relict!

(To be clear, im being facetious. This guy isnt in our range. But i do think he'd do well here.)

As my Alabama contacts (who are convinced that Kiffin is going there as soon as Saban retires)...Kiffin is a perfect fit for Bama because he's crazy enough to think he can replace a legend but good enough that he just might pull it off. Think about how much money Bama is going to throw at him.....

"Alabama contacts?" Tell your uncle-cousins to mind their own business.



I'm just kidding, MW.

 

[Techwood Relict]

"People skills"? These dudes aren't people, they're football players. Tell me what you think about his coaching skills, Relict!

(To be clear, im being facetious. This guy isnt in our range. But i do think he'd do well here.)


"Alabama contacts?" Tell your uncle-cousins to mind their own business.



I'm just kidding, MW.

I think he's an excellent football tactician, and my cat still doesn't like him.

 

[ticotech]

I voted Mike Houston based on what he has done as HC at two different schools. ECU was a disaster when he got there and has gotten them highly competitive. He won a national championship at James Madison so he can prepare his team for big games.
The only negative is that ECU is not an academically challenging school so can get some kids we probably can't consider. He can develop players because he has to recruit against UNC, NCSU, WAKE, DUKE and APP and doesn't get the top players. I haven't checked where they are in recruiting ranking but he probably is getting 2* and low 3* players who he then has to coach up.
I don't think he will be the guy but I would be okay with him as HC.
My guess is it will be O'Brien. Batt knows him and he is probably ready to leave the heat at Bama.

Didn’t we hire the 1991 National Coach of the Year from ECU? How did that turn out?

 

[Randy Carson]

Let's say that you've worked for several years in the engineering department of a mid-sized manufacturing plant. The plant is underfunded by the parent company, its facilities and equipment are outdated (bordering on obsolete), and the management team is not good.

After another dismal quarter, the CEO of the parent company fires the plant manager and calls you into a meeting. "Congratulations, Bob," he says (though that's not your real name). "I'm naming you Interim Plant Manager. I know you weren't directly responsible for the slump in production we've experienced over the past 3.5 years...or what went on before that. But enough talk of the past...let's talk about your future here."

"Things at the plant are a mess, and frankly, I'm looking outside for a new plant manager who can turn things around. Until that decision is made, we want you to hold down the fort, so to speak. As you might expect, we aren't willing to invest any more money into a plant that's underperforming. Additionally, it's too late in the production season to make major changes to the middle managers that report to you. Honestly, things got so bad under the recent manager, I'm not even sure who you could get to come here. The seasonal workers we rely on every day are already in place for the year, and as you know, all the employees with better skill sets were snapped up by our competition for higher wages and better advancement opportunities. The truth is: you can't expect or make any major changes. Finally, morale among all our shareholders, employees and customers is at an all-time low. So, that's that."

"In the meantime, Bill (that's not your name, either), we expect you to turn things around quickly. Remember, your future here is riding on this. I'm confident you'll be successful. Good luck."

Anybody remember reading The Goal?

 

[ticotech]

I voted Mike Houston based on what he has done as HC at two different schools. ECU was a disaster when he got there and has gotten them highly competitive. He won a national championship at James Madison so he can prepare his team for big games.
The only negative is that ECU is not an academically challenging school so can get some kids we probably can't consider. He can develop players because he has to recruit against UNC, NCSU, WAKE, DUKE and APP and doesn't get the top players. I haven't checked where they are in recruiting ranking but he probably is getting 2* and low 3* players who he then has to coach up.
I don't think he will be the guy but I would be okay with him as HC.
My guess is it will be O'Brien. Batt knows him and he is probably ready to leave the heat at Bama.

ECU brings back bad memories. Didn’t we hire the 1991 National Coach of the year from ECU? How did that go?

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Let's say that you've worked for several years in the engineering department of a mid-sized manufacturing plant. The plant is underfunded by the parent company, its facilities and equipment are outdated (bordering on obsolete), and the management team is not good.

After another dismal quarter, the CEO of the parent company fires the plant manager and calls you into a meeting. "Congratulations, Bob," he says (though that's not your real name). "I'm naming you Interim Plant Manager. I know you weren't directly responsible for the slump in production we've experienced over the past 3.5 years...or what went on before that. But enough talk of the past...let's talk about your future here."

"Things at the plant are a mess, and frankly, I'm looking outside for a new plant manager who can turn things around. Until that decision is made, we want you to hold down the fort, so to speak. As you might expect, we aren't willing to invest any more money into a plant that's underperforming. Additionally, it's too late in the production season to make major changes to the middle managers that report to you. Honestly, things got so bad under the recent manager, I'm not even sure who you could get to come here. The seasonal workers we rely on every day are already in place for the year, and as you know, all the employees with better skill sets were snapped up by our competition for higher wages and better advancement opportunities. The truth is: you can't expect or make any major changes. Finally, morale among all our shareholders, employees and customers is at an all-time low. So, that's that."

"In the meantime, Bill (that's not your name, either), we expect you to turn things around quickly. Remember, your future here is riding on this. I'm confident you'll be successful. Good luck."

Anybody remember reading The Goal?

This analogy would work better if you promoted a shift manager and not someone in the engineering department.

 

[FredJacket]

Has anyone mentioned Jim Mora Jr? His career has been up/down. He probably would be eager to make a step "up" [again] to P5. However, I'd assume Ga Tech would be thinking they can do better and less eager to take on someone with such an up/down resume.

 

[Randy Carson]

This analogy would work better if you promoted a shift manager and not someone in the engineering department.

Yeah, but then some of the guys in this forum would think I was calling them out personally.

 

[kg01]

I think he's an excellent football tactician, and my cat still doesn't like him.

Well, to be fair, your cat probably doesn't really like you either.

"D*mn Mittens, not in da face!" - Relict

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Has anyone mentioned Jim Mora Jr? His career has been up/down. He probably would be eager to make a step "up" [again] to P5. However, I'd assume Ga Tech would be thinking they can do better and less eager to take on someone with such an up/down resume.

Interesting proposal. Mora has definitely done more with less so far at UConn, but it is a small sample size. His time at UCLA started off well, but ended poorly. He's generally credited with being a good coach. My biggest issues would be that he is a defensive coach, and I am really hoping to get an offensive minded HC, and that he might be considered to be a somewhat underwhelming retread hire.

 

[slugboy]

FWIW, Steven Godfrey on his SplitZone Duo podcast said Willie Fritz from Tulane and Bill Clark formerly with UAB had both expressed interest in the job. Either one would be a good ball coach and I think could win here. Fritz's age would be my main concern but maybe he could be a bit of a bridge coach, get our team to bowls, win some games, let the new AD work on the fundraising aspect so that when he does feel like hanging it up GT is in a better financial position to make a "splashier" hire.

If they want the job, then my bet is they think they can fix up the program in less than two years.

 

[LargeFO]

Interesting proposal. Mora has definitely done more with less so far at UConn, but it is a small sample size. His time at UCLA started off well, but ended poorly. He's generally credited with being a good coach. My biggest issues would be that he is a defensive coach, and I am really hoping to get an offensive minded HC, and that he might be considered to be a somewhat underwhelming retread hire.

He reminds me too much of GC5. Tries to be buddy-buddy with the players 24-7.

 

[Gt2019]

I chose Key. I think Key could recruit at a top 30 level rankings wise and be consistent at it, kinda what we hoped out of Collins. Key would provide you a lot of ties to the Bama coaching tree that just extends everywhere across the country. That would go a long way in terms of filling out a potential staff. Key is showing he can win at Tech, rally the players around 1 goal which is playing hard until the clock hits zero. Key fills a lot of the boxes Tech is looking for.