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He could coach for another 10 years, but he probably would not be interested in a multi-year rebuild.the only thing about Fritz would be his age at 62 how much longer would be coach. Malzahn I don't know much about him
Age may not even be the big factor—the average coach lasts about 5 years in their job. There are some coaches that get to stay in their job for a while, but most college coaches have been at their current job for less than 5 years. If you’re taking this job, you should have a plan to turn things around quickly and your goal should be to be good in a few years.
Even if you’re a 35-year old hot shot, if your team isn’t looking good in 3 years, you won’t be in the job for 5. Why take a job that will be a slog for 3-4 years before you get fired?
So, when I was looking to see how old some coaches are (there are a few 70+ year old head coaches like Saban and Brown), I found this: https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/coaching-carousel-study/ . The source isn’t a name brand, but it looks like they’ve put some thought into this and done their homework well.
If we’re going “name brand”, we’re looking at a P5 coordinator or position coach off of an established coaching tree like Meyer (formerly) at OSU or Saban (which I feel like is a popular SEC move). Odds of that are kind of low—looks like less that 25% depending how you put the odds together.
Hiring another P5 coach happens about 1 time out of 6, but a lot of that’s going to be USC taking Riley from Oklahoma or LSU getting Kelly or potentially Auburn taking Kiffin from Ole Miss. It could happen, but I’d say it’s a longer shot for us than even 1/6. Part of those odds is hiring someone who took a year off, so “retreads” fit in that category.
I’d split up the coaching spectrum a little differently:
- the FBS royalty that are hugely profitable and have a lot of cash. I’d put Alabama, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, UGA, USC, Texas, TA&M, Penn State, LSU, and Notre Dame here. There may be some other schools that belong
- The FBS profitable “haves” that are the next tier out: Arkansas, Ole Miss, FSU, Auburn, Kentucky, UNC, OkSt, Oregon, etc. Wisconsin would be here.
- The upper middle class of schools that are getting by: Pitt, Wake, Arizona, TCU (who is having a fantastic year), frankly a lot of the ACC and B12 and part of the P12, UCF and some of the better G5 schools
- Struggling teams: GT, (maybe) Nebraska, Arizona State
- The silent majority: Lots of AAC and SunBelt and other low resource teams. Georgia State would fall in here.
- The FBS doormats: UConn, UMass, schools perennially in the bottom 30.
Four years ago we were getting by, but having some issues. In this thread we’ve talked a lot about how much we’re willing to spend on a coach, but not as clearly about how attractive we are to a coach. If we hire a G5 coach or young up-and-comer, it’s not a budget issue—they’re coming here to make their bones.
Or, you’re looking at a coach on a “redemption arc” that wants to show that they still have it or that has something to prove.
We talk a lot about Leipold, but he just proved it at Kansas. Dave Clawson proved it at Wake. They don’t have anything to prove here.
In the “just maybe” category is an NFL coach who wants to show what they can do. But I don’t see us hiring a proven commodity, because I don’t think we’re in the category of jobs they’re looking at.