Where We Stand (PPDvPwr5 edition)

[mtodd30]

Good old RPO baby, Clemson ran it with Lawrence

 

[AE 87]

Again, I don't want to get into old debates about our last coach. So, I waited a few days to clear up some possible misunderstandings of this stat. The basic premise is that the best teams are the teams whose offense scores more than their defense allows.

Now, it may happen that some games are won or lost by defensive or special teams scores, but those games are more the exception than the rule. Generally speaking, we see the impact of good play on Special Teams in how it makes it easier for the offense to score or the defense to prevent scoring.

So, I've put together a table for the 2020 season comparing the CFP Rankings with two rankings using my PPDvPwr5 stat, Diff PPD (OffPPD-DefPPD) and Ratio PPD (OffPPD/DefPPD). I've also included the AP and Coach's Poll Rankings.

There are some teams, like Coastal Carolina, which will not show up in my rankings because they played too few games against Pwr5 opponents.

Top 25	CFP	Diff PPD	RatioPPD	AP	Coach's
1	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama	Alabama
2	Clemson	Clemson	Clemson	Ohio State	Ohio State
3	Ohio State	Iowa State	Iowa State	Clemson	Clemson
4	Notre Dame	Oklahoma	Iowa	Texas A&M	Texas A&M
5	Texas A&M	Arizona State	Oklahoma	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
6	Oklahoma	Ohio State	Arizona State	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
7	Florida	Texas A&M	Texas A&M	Georgia	Georgia
8	Cincinnati	Iowa	Ohio State	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
9	Georgia	Florida	Northwestern	Iowa State	Iowa State
10	Iowa State	Georgia	Georgia	Northwestern	Northwestern
11	Indiana	North Carolina	Wisconsin	BYU	BYU
12	Coastal Carolina	Notre Dame	Indiana	Indiana	Florida
13	North Carolina	Northwestern	Notre Dame	Florida	Indiana
14	Northwestern	USC	Florida	Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina
15	Iowa	Indiana	USC	Louisiana	Iowa
16	BYU	Washington	North Carolina	Iowa State	Louisiana
17	USC	Wisconsin	Liberty*	Liberty	North Carolina
18	Miami	Texas	Washington*	North Carolina	Liberty
19	Louisiana	Liberty	Texas	Texas	Oklahoma State
20	Texas	Miami (Florida)	Miami (Florida)	Oklahoma State	Texas
21	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	USC	USC
22	San José State	UCLA	UCLA*	Miami	Miami
23	NC State	Penn State	Penn State*	Ball State	Ball State
24	Tulsa	Utah	Utah*	San José State	San José State
25	Oregon	West Virginia*	West Virginia*	Buffalo	Buffalo
		North Carolina State*

* indicates that consecutive teams were tied in the ranking

Now, I think these comparisons validate the stat. That is to say, since the team rankings derived from OffPPD and DefPPD are largely in line with the major team rankings, it follows that these stats are a decent measure of the offense and defense individually.

So, anyway, I do think we can trust the stats from the OP in giving us a good indicator of the strength of our team, and our offense and defense individually, historically, as well as where we stand now in that context.

 

[DieselTeeth]

Interesting. I watched again all the condensed games that were available from 2020. (OK, glutton for punishment, so sue me.) What stood out to me was about what I was thinking in real time. If Jeff makes it through this year unscathed, it will be damn near miraculous. In the Notre Dame game he was hit hard almost every time he went back to pass. We will not get better unless the lines on both sides of the ball get better. The hoopla over recruiting defensive backs wide receivers and running backs is nice but they can't do it all. In the Louisville game, their wide receiver literally ran all the way across the field with poor Tre Swilling trying to cover him and the quarterback had time to throw it to him. I would like to know what players we will be missing from both transfers and graduating that will be missed the most. I am thinking Harvin and Camp but there might be a couple from the portal I have forgotten about that we may miss about as much.

Pass rush will be much improved this year. Way more depth on the edge this coming season.

 

[TruckStick]

Cochran Pendley and Kirby will determine o line improvement.
Kevin Harris, AC, JD, TK, Kennard, and Ivey will determine d line improvement.

I would say most of our success will be determine by those guys. The other line guys pretty much are a baseline from the last two years.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Pass rush will be much improved this year. Way more depth on the edge this coming season.

I will believe it when I see it. Show me...I am gullible.