Where We Stand (PPDvPwr5 edition)

AE 87

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As I've posted in previous threads, PPDvPwr5 (points per drive vs power 5) is a calculated raw statistic like points/game or yards/play. The only accounting for schedule strength is in only using data from power 5 (or BCS AQ earlier) opponents. It also only accounts for scrimmage scores, rushing and passing touchdowns and field goals. Safeties as well as defensive or special team scores are not considered. The impact of special teams is assumed to be cooked into the offensive and defensive stats.

I created the stat as a way to try and isolate the strength of our offense under Paul Johnson when we could have 3 to 7 fewer drives/game, making points/game a less than reliable metric.

A metric of team strength can be calculated by either subtracting the DefPPD from the OffPPD (DiffPPD) or taking the ratio OffPPD/DefPPD (RatPPD). For example, in 2020, Alabama and Clemson were clearly the top 2 teams. However, Alabama's DiffPPD was 2.47 compared to Clemson's 1.62. (Note: A Diff PPD of greater than 1 is typically top 10.)

Here's a History of GT's Off and Def PPD vs. Pwr5 or BCS AQ and their rankings for each year:

1617815955935.png

1617815967622.png


The first thing that I noticed is that I had forgotten how good our offense was in 2018. How bad our defense was makes it easy to forget that we went to a bowl game (though we didn't really play in one). One of the next things that jumps off the chart to me is that our Defensive numbers for the past two years are right in line with where they've been, though worse than every year but 2018. They are thankfully improving from the 2018 outlier. This is at least suggestive that our problems on defense under CPJ were not as strongly tied to practicing against the option offense as some have argued.

Here are our team rankings using both DiffPPD and RatPPD:

1617816240691.png


That's where we stand within our historical context. Hopefully, things will start clicking this year.
 

Coloradojacket

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What this is telling me is what I have been saying, our current problem is not defense, it is offense. Averaging 19 points per game and giving the other team 15-18 offensive possessions will kill us. We need a change in offensive scheme. And no, I don't see this improving this year,
 

Augusta_Jacket

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What this is telling me is what I have been saying, our current problem is not defense, it is offense. Averaging 19 points per game and giving the other team 15-18 offensive possessions will kill us. We need a change in offensive scheme. And no, I don't see this improving this year,

We had similar offensive numbers in 2015 to the last two years. I don't think the issue is scheme, but rather having the right pieces in place for the current scheme. If the numbers don't continue to improve over the next two years, then we have got a big problem on our hands.

I think they will continue to improve.
 

mtodd30

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
392
Jeff’s interceptions didn’t help our offensive ratings, and neither did all our three and outs.

I think both problems will be helped with more reps for Jeff at spring and summer ball. Remember this guy was practically plucked out of high school where he relied on his instincts and athletic superiority to make plays.

He stated himself in his interview the other day he’s learning to manage the game better with going through his progressions, making that short check down completion to keep drives going and getting positive yards instead of holding onto the ball and getting a sack or incompletion.

I say let’s wait on judging the offense until our QB understands the offense. Improved OLine won’t hurt either
 

AE 87

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What this is telling me is what I have been saying, our current problem is not defense, it is offense. Averaging 19 points per game and giving the other team 15-18 offensive possessions will kill us. We need a change in offensive scheme. And no, I don't see this improving this year,

Fwiw, I still think defense is a problem. It's been worse than every year but our injury apocalypse year of 2015.
 

AE 87

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We had similar offensive numbers in 2015 to the last two years. I don't think the issue is scheme, but rather having the right pieces in place for the current scheme. If the numbers don't continue to improve over the next two years, then we have got a big problem on our hands.

I think they will continue to improve.

2015 was the injury apocalypse year combined with the psychology of coming of the 2014 season.
 

mtodd30

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392
Our defense definitely has some holes. Let’s hope some experience on our young corners and depth on the DLine helps things
 

WreckinGT

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Jeff’s interceptions didn’t help our offensive ratings, and neither did all our three and outs.

I think both problems will be helped with more reps for Jeff at spring and summer ball. Remember this guy was practically plucked out of high school where he relied on his instincts and athletic superiority to make plays.

He stated himself in his interview the other day he’s learning to manage the game better with going through his progressions, making that short check down completion to keep drives going and getting positive yards instead of holding onto the ball and getting a sack or incompletion.

I say let’s wait on judging the offense until our QB understands the offense. Improved OLine won’t hurt either
Should we expect our QB to understand the offense this year?
 

jacketup

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What this is telling me is what I have been saying, our current problem is not defense, it is offense. Averaging 19 points per game and giving the other team 15-18 offensive possessions will kill us. We need a change in offensive scheme. And no, I don't see this improving this year,
THere you go with "scheme" again. I want a "scheme" like Friedgen's. You attack the other teams weakness. The problem has been that with the lack of talent we haven't had strengths to attack weaknesses.
 

CuseJacket

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Fwiw, I still think defense is a problem. It's been worse than every year but our injury apocalypse year of 2015.
Do you or does anyone have any metrics off hand that compare injuries in 2015 to 2019 (e.g., lost starts)?

By the end of 2019, our DL depth chart was:
  • 7 freshmen
  • A 211 lb converted linebacker (Henderson)
  • A walk-on (Brooks)
  • One upperclassman on scholarship (Glanton)
We were also starting a walk-on on the OL.
 

AE 87

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Also IIRC, the average OffPPD and DefPPD each year is about 2.2. Top 10 or so is typically over 2.7 for OffPPD and under 1.7 for DefPPD.
 

gtrower

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THere you go with "scheme" again. I want a "scheme" like Friedgen's. You attack the other teams weakness. The problem has been that with the lack of talent we haven't had strengths to attack weaknesses.

As has been argued many times but apparently needs to be brought up again, Syracuse, BC, and Duke were able to attack our weaknesses with FAR inferior talent to the tune of about 40 ppg.

Good coaches scheme around what they have. We can’t keep crying talent gap when we’re getting flayed by teams consistently recruiting worse than we ever have.

Talent should be a luxury. Not a necessity. Otherwise we’re gonna look up and realize we’re Tennessee.
 

AE 87

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Do you or does anyone have any metrics off hand that compare injuries in 2015 to 2019 (e.g., lost starts)?

By the end of 2019, our DL depth chart was:
  • 7 freshmen
  • A 211 lb converted linebacker (Henderson)
  • A walk-on (Brooks)
  • One upperclassman on scholarship (Glanton)
We were also starting a walk-on on the OL.

I don't track that, but I know injuries and other issues hit us pretty hard the last couple of years.
 

CuseJacket

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It is interesting to compare offensive production in 2008 vs. 2020 (1.99 ppd vs. 1.86 ppd).

No spring practice prior to 2020 to speak of with a true freshman QB feels somewhat similar in context.

Definitely expect improvement this year, but jumping to 3+ ppd like 2009 is probably unrealistic.
 

TruckStick

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
173
A defensive rank in the 30's or lower on a consistent basis would break the trend for GT. We've had decent secondary talent.. linebacker.. only need a couple good ones.

Key factor: Defensive Lineman in the 4 and 5 star range (Mykel Williams). I'm excited to see what a healthy TK can do. Ivey will be a stud as well.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Albany Georgia
As I've posted in previous threads, PPDvPwr5 (points per drive vs power 5) is a calculated raw statistic like points/game or yards/play. The only accounting for schedule strength is in only using data from power 5 (or BCS AQ earlier) opponents. It also only accounts for scrimmage scores, rushing and passing touchdowns and field goals. Safeties as well as defensive or special team scores are not considered. The impact of special teams is assumed to be cooked into the offensive and defensive stats.

I created the stat as a way to try and isolate the strength of our offense under Paul Johnson when we could have 3 to 7 fewer drives/game, making points/game a less than reliable metric.

A metric of team strength can be calculated by either subtracting the DefPPD from the OffPPD (DiffPPD) or taking the ratio OffPPD/DefPPD (RatPPD). For example, in 2020, Alabama and Clemson were clearly the top 2 teams. However, Alabama's DiffPPD was 2.47 compared to Clemson's 1.62. (Note: A Diff PPD of greater than 1 is typically top 10.)

Here's a History of GT's Off and Def PPD vs. Pwr5 or BCS AQ and their rankings for each year:

View attachment 10291
View attachment 10292

The first thing that I noticed is that I had forgotten how good our offense was in 2018. How bad our defense was makes it easy to forget that we went to a bowl game (though we didn't really play in one). One of the next things that jumps off the chart to me is that our Defensive numbers for the past two years are right in line with where they've been, though worse than every year but 2018. They are thankfully improving from the 2018 outlier. This is at least suggestive that our problems on defense under CPJ were not as strongly tied to practicing against the option offense as some have argued.

Here are our team rankings using both DiffPPD and RatPPD:

View attachment 10293

That's where we stand within our historical context. Hopefully, things will start clicking this year.
Interesting. I watched again all the condensed games that were available from 2020. (OK, glutton for punishment, so sue me.) What stood out to me was about what I was thinking in real time. If Jeff makes it through this year unscathed, it will be damn near miraculous. In the Notre Dame game he was hit hard almost every time he went back to pass. We will not get better unless the lines on both sides of the ball get better. The hoopla over recruiting defensive backs wide receivers and running backs is nice but they can't do it all. In the Louisville game, their wide receiver literally ran all the way across the field with poor Tre Swilling trying to cover him and the quarterback had time to throw it to him. I would like to know what players we will be missing from both transfers and graduating that will be missed the most. I am thinking Harvin and Camp but there might be a couple from the portal I have forgotten about that we may miss about as much.
 

mtodd30

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
392
Should we expect our QB to understand the offense this year?
Absolutely! I am a Sims and Collins apologist on this board but this year I expect results, because we saw development from Sims as the season went on.

I’m sure you noticed we held onto the ball much better as the season went on, and in games we didn’t throw it away a million times we put a lot of points on the board.

problem is our defense needs more improvement than our offense in my opinion
 

Lotta Juice

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
393
Interesting to see that the DPPD number for 2020 (2.63) is only better than the previous 2 years BUT the Defensive rank number for 2020 (49) is better than 8 of the previous years including 2009 and 2014.
It clearly shows how important it is to have an offense that moves the chains but also reflects the change in offenses across the board. I'd imagine the overall DPPD has gone up for all of CFB in recent years
 

swampsting

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1,457
Do you or does anyone have any metrics off hand that compare injuries in 2015 to 2019 (e.g., lost starts)?

By the end of 2019, our DL depth chart was:
  • 7 freshmen
  • A 211 lb converted linebacker (Henderson)
  • A walk-on (Brooks)
  • One upperclassman on scholarship (Glanton)
We were also starting a walk-on on the OL.
Unless you're Clemson or Alabamama, everybody is a) hunting for DL all the time and b) got not much depth by the time the season finale rolls around.
For instance, for our second game of 2019, just to pick an early one before injuries start to really set in, ATL available, we had: Glanton, Lee (albeit new to the position and doing double duty), a junior, a redshirt junior and a redshirt freshman (TK) and at end, three freshmen, a sophomore (Henderson) and a redshirt sophomore.
Of those 11 guys from the second game of 2019, one graduated. Six have moved on.
For comparison, for their game with TAMU, right before playing us, the Dwags had three seniors, a graduate student, two juniors, two sophomores and a true freshman (a 3-4). Their three upperclassmen were all with "or" guys at their spots to start.
the week before, NC State had three freshmen and three sophomores in their top nine along the defensive line (a 4-3)
 

takethepoints

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2015 was the injury apocalypse year combined with the psychology of coming of the 2014 season.
And losing all those seniors and Dennis Andrews. With Laskey in a redshirt year - and why, please, was Paul putting him back there to field punts as a frosh? - and Andrews, that team would have won 6 - 8 games, even with all the injuries. Ah, what could have been!
 
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