Virginia vs. Georgia Tech Predictions #UVAvsGT

Margin of Victory

  • GT by 14+

    Votes: 15 16.5%

  • GT by 7-13

    Votes: 39 42.9%

  • GT by <7

    Votes: 22 24.2%

  • Virginia by <7

    Votes: 6 6.6%

  • Virginia by 7-13

    Votes: 6 6.6%

  • Virginia by 14+

    Votes: 3 3.3%
  • Total voters
    91
  • Poll closed .
GTJake

GTJake

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I read this morning that their DL is hit with injuries and they'll be starting guys who have no experience against the TO ... big plus for us.
I also read that their QB is very efficient especially in third down conversions ... oh-oh for us.
I'm staying on the A-Train and predicting we win the turnover battle again ... GT 38 UVA 24
We win by two TD's, but the outcome stays in doubt until late 4thQ.
 

MWBATL

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Their QB is likely to score on our D at will unless we do something different (and wrap him up when we get a hand on him!).

We ran for 400 yards and scored in the 30's on them last year in our loss. And now they have lost a couple of D linemen to injury.

All signs point to a shoot-out decided by turnovers and special teams play (remember last year they returned a kick for a TD).

So, that means for sure a defensive struggle, so I am picking GT by 26-20.
 
AE 87

AE 87

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BCJacket said:
My analysis says UVA 35-GT 28. Prove me wrong [again] Jackets.
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What does the word, "analysis," mean here? Is it just a fun way of saying your guess based on observations or do you actually have an analytical method?

No worries either way, but I like, am interested in, differing analytical approaches to predicting outcomes.
 
BCJacket

BCJacket

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AE 87 said:
What does the word, "analysis," mean here? Is it just a fun way of saying your guess based on observations or do you actually have an analytical method?

No worries either way, but I like, am interested in, differing analytical approaches to predicting outcomes.
Click to expand...

I do run some analysis/statistics. But if I'm being honest, ultimately it's squinting at the numbers and making a guess.

I do an Excel matrix of common opponents and performances, on both offense and defense for both teams, to get a differential. ie how much better or worse our D and O did than theirs vs common opponent. Which admittedly, is very rough since it only looks a raw points scored or surrendered.

I also look at FEI. Specifically, at how the offenses and defenses did against the most comparable opponents in OFEI/DFEI. For example, Tech has an OFEI of 3.12 - 11th. Their D played NCSt (with a similar OFEI of 3.05 13th) and gave up 35 points. UVA has a DFEI of 1.85, Tech's O played Duke which has a similar DFEI of 1.9 and managed 14 points. And so on. I do a table of these values in Excel also.

Then I run some averages, make adjustments for outliers and then do a subjective rounding of the results. I'm also admittedly bearish in my predictions for Tech. I want the team to outperform my expectation, not be disappointed.
 
Longestday

Longestday

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There are intangibles like Duke having a week of rest and GT playing an injured QB all combine with 3 fumbles in a row. Duke has a ranked 38 defense and "played better" than Miami at rank 11 against our O. The extra rest, injured QB, and the fumbles made all the difference in the world.

The Virginia game played similar to Miami game as they are both ranked at ~80 and similar in defense of 30 versus 11. My squinty eyes says UVA has a better offense and will score more than Miami despite FEI ranking.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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CuseJacket said:
Poll included.
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Someone help me here. Virginia runs a 3 man front and has both starting defensive ends out. The nose tackle is healthy. Is that right? I am inclined to think that if we can run the ball like we did last year and not turn it over we win. However, I think we will have a really hard time with Perkins. He reminds me a little bit of Shawn Jones from the early 1990s. Fast, athletic, a good arm, but inclined to be a little erratic at times. He has trouble written all over him. Virginia wants a score in the teens to mid twenties to have their best chance at a win. Tech wants a shoot out with the Virginia defense finally collapsing in the second half.

I am picking Tech by a touchdown but we will have to play well, injuries or not. Virginia has a good team and this will be a stern test. Perkins allows them to run a true spread option whereas before they were kind of faking it with that hybrid. We will see what Bronco has up his sleeve to stop our triple option. Limit turnovers and penalties and I think we can win by more than a touchdown maybe even comfortably but if we don't play clean and let Perkins run and pass us silly we will lose.
 
GTNavyNuke

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plangineer said:
I have not voted in these since the Puke game so not going to vote here.

I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious
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I'm stitious too. Picked us to lose by <7 the last three weeks and not changing this week.

UVa at full strength would probably beat us. But if we'd been at full strength with Benson and Lucas all season, we'd win and be going for the ACCCG ......... some much for what ifs.

Atomic has us 30-22. So I'll take UVa 30-22.
 
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