Updated Season Win Expectations

[dressedcheeseside]

Close game wins are usually the only way that we have "good" seasons.

True, but that’s true for 95% of college football.

 

[Adadu]

True, but that’s true for 95% of college football.

Fair. Still, its applicable to us given the season that we've had so far.

 

[TheTaxJacket]

5-6 and home for the holidays again.

I think we lose to Clem, VT, Duke and UGA big time. We may even be 4-7. UVA is playing much better this year and its on the road.

 

[AE 87]

Ok, I estimated win likelihood based on my current PPDvPWR5 projections (see that thread):
WF .8
CU .5
uva .7
vpi .7
DU .7
ga .3

That totals 3.7, so I'm projecting 4 more wins and a total of 7.

 

[SidewalkJacket]

Whether this season ends up like 2014, 2015 or 2016 remains to be seen.

We've had our heartbreaker x2 already.

We've crushed lesser opponents (though 2 of them were on winning streaks against us).

We haven't had our inexplicable loss yet (and for those of you who will say that was TN, I say brand new QB, BB, K in bowl-type atmosphere against SEC opponent).

We almost had our upset of a top 10 (which turned into one of our heartbreakers).

The defense is better than it has been in awhile. In my opinion this is undeniable. Giving up a winning drive or having a bad half doesn't mean our D hasn't improved. It has.

If we had played the UCF game and won it, we would've been ranked going into this UM game. Losing like we did on a miracle after winning the whole game would've kept us in at around 25, I'm guessing.

As it stands, we're off the radar again. And we have a tough road ahead. But how is that different than 2014 after we started hot then dropped Duke and UNC and everyone said we were done? Or last season when we started 3-3, and were sitting at 5-4 after getting demolished by UNC and missing JeT going up to VT?

I'm upset we lost this weekend. It was a great opportunity and we blew it. I don't think it's time to pack it in, though. Wish we had that UCF game back. I still think this was a 9 win team before we lost that one.

 

[iceeater1969]

Ok, I estimated win likelihood based on my current PPDvPWR5 projections (see that thread):
WF .8
CU .5
uva .7
vpi .7
DU .7
ga .3

That totals 3.7, so I'm projecting 4 more wins and a total of 7.

Add one for "our luck has changed" and u get the right answer =8.
Unless it's a negative number and unless we don't use odd negative numbers u get = 5.
So the weather forecast is a high of 8 in the morning but declining to 5 in the evening. Expect a lot of roof roof rainbows or storms at night .

One thing for sure - the guys will fight the whole game
Let's go jackets!

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Whether this season ends up like 2014, 2015 or 2016 remains to be seen.

We've had our heartbreaker x2 already.

We've crushed lesser opponents (though 2 of them were on winning streaks against us).

We haven't had our inexplicable loss yet (and for those of you who will say that was TN, I say brand new QB, BB, K in bowl-type atmosphere against SEC opponent).

We almost had our upset of a top 10 (which turned into one of our heartbreakers).

The defense is better than it has been in awhile. In my opinion this is undeniable. Giving up a winning drive or having a bad half doesn't mean our D hasn't improved. It has.

If we had played the UCF game and won it, we would've been ranked going into this UM game. Losing like we did on a miracle after winning the whole game would've kept us in at around 25, I'm guessing.

As it stands, we're off the radar again. And we have a tough road ahead. But how is that different than 2014 after we started hot then dropped Duke and UNC and everyone said we were done? Or last season when we started 3-3, and were sitting at 5-4 after getting demolished by UNC and missing JeT going up to VT?

I'm upset we lost this weekend. It was a great opportunity and we blew it. I don't think it's time to pack it in, though. Wish we had that UCF game back. I still think this was a 9 win team before we lost that one.

Are you saying that skipping the game with UCF cost us 4 wins this year?

 

[RamblinAbe]

If you don't expect, hope, pray, and think we will win the rest of our games, then what's the point of being a sports fan? It's college football and we are talking about 18-23 year old men. Our boys know exactly what the goals are and they want to be 5-0 just as bad as all of us. I've said it once, and I'll say it again, if we have a great game against Wake and then upset Clemson the following week, the tide will have turned. However, let's take one week at a time and focus on winning out. If we do win out, I think everything else will take care of itself and we will be in Charlotte playing for an ACC Championship.

Let's rally behind our boys and show up for the Wake game and show our support. We WILL right the ship. #TogetherWeSwarm

P.S. - if you want a little of what I'm drinking, it's optimism! Remember, It's easy to be pessimistic.

 

[SidewalkJacket]

Are you saying that skipping the game with UCF cost us 4 wins this year?

I'm saying I thought after the first three games we were a 9 win team. Now, if the stars align and only drop one of Clem, VT, Ugag, or anyone else, we can still only win 8.

 

[takethepoints]

Bryant had a concussion against the Orange. (No wonder; he was knocked unconscious.) That means he probably won't be cleared to play against us; the normal waiting period is two weeks and he got knocked out. You all saw what happened when Cooper took over; their running game disappeared and they lost. If Bryant plays - but that's unlikely - we'll have a probably insurmountable problem. If he doesn't we could win this game. Clemson is not, repeat not, as good on D as they were last year.

I've seen VT several times this year and we can beat those guys.

I've seen Ugag twice and they are better then they were last year. When we beat them. I think we can do that again.

But let's get Wake out of the way first. That'll be a tough game, especially if we don't get Benson and Mitchell back. Still, we should win.

 

[Sideways]

I had posted the expected win poll after our UCF game was cancelled. https://gtswarm.com/threads/updated-regular-season-wins-poll.12963/ Median expectation was 8 wins.

Since then we have won and lost a game. So at 3-2, the best we can do is 9-2.

I'll hang with 6 wins ..... we beat WF, UVa and Fluke. But lose big to Clemson and closer to VT and UGAg.

Atomic had us at 7 wins before the UM game and now has us at 6 wins. http://atomicfootball.com/archive/teams/tm_9.html

Would 6 wins be a good season for most? I would think not. But if we can beat UGAg, that would make it a good season. That is now the most important game left on our schedule, including any bowl we go to.

Six wins would be disappointing but not terrible. It is what I chose because of doubts about beating any of the big three left: UGA, Clemson, Virginia Tech. We are going to have to do something about this crowding the line business. Our receivers have got to start getting separation and burn these safeties and linebackers so that our Bbacks are not facing 7 and 8 man lines with people shooting the gaps nearly every play. Our remaining opponents are going to look at what Miami did and bring the house you can count on it.

 

[Sideways]

Whether this season ends up like 2014, 2015 or 2016 remains to be seen.

We've had our heartbreaker x2 already.

We've crushed lesser opponents (though 2 of them were on winning streaks against us).

We haven't had our inexplicable loss yet (and for those of you who will say that was TN, I say brand new QB, BB, K in bowl-type atmosphere against SEC opponent).

We almost had our upset of a top 10 (which turned into one of our heartbreakers).

The defense is better than it has been in awhile. In my opinion this is undeniable. Giving up a winning drive or having a bad half doesn't mean our D hasn't improved. It has.

If we had played the UCF game and won it, we would've been ranked going into this UM game. Losing like we did on a miracle after winning the whole game would've kept us in at around 25, I'm guessing.

As it stands, we're off the radar again. And we have a tough road ahead. But how is that different than 2014 after we started hot then dropped Duke and UNC and everyone said we were done? Or last season when we started 3-3, and were sitting at 5-4 after getting demolished by UNC and missing JeT going up to VT?

I'm upset we lost this weekend. It was a great opportunity and we blew it. I don't think it's time to pack it in, though. Wish we had that UCF game back. I still think this was a 9 win team before we lost that one.

I have resisted saying this. Every fiber of my being screams "Don't do it" but it is undeniable that the defense has improved. I attribute this to experience. The Austin twins, Brant, Vic, all three defensive ends, the safeties and Step have all played to varying degrees a lot of football. They are seeing things and recognizing sets and tendencies like the veterans that they are. It is just a natural function that defensive players see things and start moving before the play or before the pass and they get there just a little bit quicker than they did as freshmen or sophomores.

 

[JDjacket]

I know some people poo poo the idea of applying for a waiver (if it came to that), but I think technically since the UCF game was cancelled it allows for a waiver for bowl season. I personally don't think we're going to get fewer than 6 wins and need a waiver, but just thought I'd throw that out there.

 

[alagold]

well, it seems that the 85% who picked Tech over uM in various website polls are still seeing the overly bright-side
if Mitchell and/or Benson are out for Wake,this game alone will turn season since almost nobody sees a rested and tough WF beating us

 

[takethepoints]

I'm more concerned about Mitchell then Benson. We have good depth at BB, but not so much at LB. And, yes, Wake will be a challenge.

And, yes, I'm really missing Dedrick Mills right about now.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

I legit think we could win every remaining game or lose every remaining game. All these are winnable, but none are easy.

 

[BigJacket]

Ok, I estimated win likelihood based on my current PPDvPWR5 projections (see that thread):
WF .8
CU .5
uva .7
vpi .7
DU .7
ga .3

That totals 3.7, so I'm projecting 4 more wins and a total of 7.

Just FYI, ESPN showed Clemson’s remaining schedule and their % for them to win each game. They had CU listed as 87% chance to beat us according to their FPI.

I agree though with us probably finishing 7-4

 

[WreckinGT]

Im at 7. We beat Wake, UVA, Duke, and either Clemson or VT. I think we will give UGA a better game than the patsies they have been playing but I'm not sure we can pull that one out this year.

 

[Jmonty71]

I am going to go 6-5, maybe 7-4 if we pull an upset. Duke is our last easy game. Wake is next. Here is what I see. I think we have a better chance of upsetting VT over any one else.

Again.. come out flat in a game or two. We can be talking about 4-5 wins... It is really hard to say

Wake. Win. In a close one
Clemson. Lose.. Not even close
UVA. Win... Again... in a close one
VT. Lose.. In a heartbreaking close one
Duke Win. Huge....
UGA Lose.. Just don't see us beating the puppies. Lose and in a big way.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm more concerned about Mitchell then Benson. We have good depth at BB, but not so much at LB. And, yes, Wake will be a challenge.

And, yes, I'm really missing Dedrick Mills right about now.

I'm missing DM a lot too and missed him for UT too. And Butker even more, even though his loss was unavoidable. We'll probably lose another game this year since we don't have a reliable FG kicker. Butker would have changed the whole dynamic and we would have kicked another FG rather than going on 4th and long in the second half.

The way I really look at it is we should beat WK, Fluke and UVa. We'll probably lose one of those. And of the other three, we'll probably win one of those.

BTW, I picked us to lose by 4 to UM (24-28) so I was right and unhappy. Typical engineer mentality.