Upcoming Boston College game

[Northeast Stinger]

Hope people appreciate your work.

 

[Oakland]

We are not a good football team ...yet. The Boston College quarterback worries me. Their offensive line is huge like Bowling Green's. By the way, Bowling Green lost to Miami of Ohio this past Saturday 27-0. We need to have a good crowd on October 21st.

 

[slugboy]

The defensive data is also from Game On Paper: https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/103.

They're only on the field an average number of plays. As for the rest, it's abysmal.

Defensive
Plays	355
Plays/Game	59 #17
Total EPA	48.74 #118
EPA/Play	0.14 #120
EPA/Game	8.12 #118
Success Rate	43.4% #103
Starting FP	Own 28 #68

Does King have a shot to get any completions against them? If they play like they have against other teams, then yes. This isn't opponent-adjusted, but they're one of the worst pass defenses:

Against the Pass
Plays	142
Plays/Game	24 #2
Total EPA	50.09 #129
EPA/Play	0.35 #130
EPA/Game	8.35 #127
Success Rate	46.5% #121

Is this the week we establish the run? Eh, probably not, but they're "meh"

Against the Run
Plays	213
Plays/Game	36 #110
Total EPA	-1.35 #70
EPA/Play	-0.01 #70
EPA/Game	-0.22 #70
Success Rate	41.3% #88

So far, they've

• lost 27-24 to NIU
• Beat Holy Cross 31-28
• Lost to FSU 31-29, in a spectacular near-upset
• Got crushed by Louisville 56-28
• Beat UVA 27-24
• Beat Army 27-24.

It looks like one secret to beating them is holding them to 24 or fewer points.

If we want to take a page out of Louisville's book, we need to break our red zone blues.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

We are not a good football team ...yet. The Boston College quarterback worries me. Their offensive line is huge like Bowling Green's. By the way, Bowling Green lost to Miami of Ohio this past Saturday 27-0. We need to have a good crowd on October 21st.

This game feels more critical to me than the Wake game felt at the time, though for similar reasons. We are still trying to define ourselves as a team and still trying to establish something solid for this season.

Teams that aren’t good are way too prone to have a let down after a big win. That’s what happened to BG after one of the biggest wins they’ve had in years and that’s what happened to us after Wake.

Beat Boston College and we have a season established that we can build off of. Lose and it’s back to the drawing board for another week or two.

 

[slugboy]

We are not a good football team ...yet. The Boston College quarterback worries me. Their offensive line is huge like Bowling Green's. By the way, Bowling Green lost to Miami of Ohio this past Saturday 27-0. We need to have a good crowd on October 21st.

Yeah...the rushing game is not a good matchup for us, unless the team that played in Miami shows up.

	BC Rushing Offense	GT Rushing Defense
Plays	243	169
Plays/Game	41 #12	42 #131
Total EPA	38.77 #9	3.23 #82
EPA/Play	0.16 #13	0.02 #81
EPA/Game	6.46 #10	0.81 #83
Success Rate	42.4% #54	40.8% #79

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The defensive data is also from Game On Paper: https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/year/2023/team/103.

They're only on the field an average number of plays. As for the rest, it's abysmal.

Defensive
Plays	355
Plays/Game	59 #17
Total EPA	48.74 #118
EPA/Play	0.14 #120
EPA/Game	8.12 #118
Success Rate	43.4% #103
Starting FP	Own 28 #68

Does King have a shot to get any completions against them? If they play like they have against other teams, then yes. This isn't opponent-adjusted, but they're one of the worst pass defenses:

Against the Pass
Plays	142
Plays/Game	24 #2
Total EPA	50.09 #129
EPA/Play	0.35 #130
EPA/Game	8.35 #127
Success Rate	46.5% #121

Is this the week we establish the run? Eh, probably not, but they're "meh"

Against the Run
Plays	213
Plays/Game	36 #110
Total EPA	-1.35 #70
EPA/Play	-0.01 #70
EPA/Game	-0.22 #70
Success Rate	41.3% #88

So far, they've

• lost 27-24 to NIU
• Beat Holy Cross 31-28
• Lost to FSU 31-29, in a spectacular near-upset
• Got crushed by Louisville 56-28
• Beat UVA 27-24
• Beat Army 27-24.

It looks like one secret to beating them is holding them to 24 or fewer points.

If we want to take a page out of Louisville's book, we need to break our red zone blues.

On paper they look abysmal. But a causal eyeball test when watching them says they play hard on every down. We struggled (to put it mildly) against a BG team that played hard on every down for 4 quarters. If we play as hard as we did against Miami we will wipe the floor with them. If we take a down or two off from time to time we will be lucky to win this one.

 

[MACHETE]

Can we play a 4-3 please? Especially against a running QB. The 4-2-5 is not a good D for us...

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Can we play a 4-3 please? Especially against a running QB. The 4-2-5 is not a good D for us...

And what did the Miami game tell you?

 

[bobongo]

I will be holding my breath on this one. The easiest prediction in the world to make is that Tech loses. Something intangible, or that we haven’t seen yet, has to occur for this team to take the next step forward. It won’t be easy and Tech needs a win badly in this game to get over the hump.

I have a feeling they've learned their lesson and will break the cycle against B.C. This team knows now it can't take anyone lightly.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I have a feeling they've learned their lesson and will break the cycle against B.C. This team knows now it can't take anyone lightly.

Hope so. This game really feels like the hump to get over. I have no doubt the team will be up for UNC and uga but this game, Syracuse and Virginia feel like “character” and “culture” games.

 

[slugboy]

On paper they look abysmal. But a causal eyeball test when watching them says they play hard on every down. We struggled (to put it mildly) against a BG team that played hard on every down for 4 quarters. If we play as hard as we did against Miami we will wipe the floor with them. If we take a down or two off from time to time we will be lucky to win this one.

I agree.

Forecasting by the stats, we should have crushed BG. We got whipped. They pushed us around.

We also got stomped by Ole Miss. Our resume is inconsistent this year.

 

[bobongo]

On paper they look abysmal. But a causal eyeball test when watching them says they play hard on every down.

BC lost to FSU by 2 points. That's all anybody should need to know to take them seriously. On a given day...

 

[g0lftime]

And what did the Miami game tell you?

It told me we have to create turnovers.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

It told me we have to create turnovers.

….and we played with how many linebackers to achieve that?

Was addressing the assertion about scheme.

 

[Home Park Jacket]

If we play as hard as we did against Miami we will wipe the floor with them.

I'm not sure we can wipe the floor with any D1 team. We needed turnovers to beat Wake and Miami. If BC doesn't turn it over, we will have to play as hard just to win.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I'm not sure we can wipe the floor with any D1 team. We needed turnovers to beat Wake and Miami. If BC doesn't turn it over, we will have to play as hard just to win.

Hear you but just going by the stats of the two teams, and their respective records so far, if both teams play flawlessly we should win by 3 scores.

But not expecting that because we haven’t established that we are a mature team yet and may have another let down after a big win.

 

[g0lftime]

….and we played with how many linebackers to achieve that?

Was addressing the assertion about scheme.

Not disagreeing with adding another LB. Needs to be pretty fast. I would like to see more of Efford but we have some transfers with experience as well.
It just seems that our wins are very correlated with getting turnovers. We gave up over 400 yards to Miami but turnovers ( Shock at the Rock) and their penalties really made up the difference. Very similar to the recent Wake win and Pitt last year.

 

[LongforDodd]

Will GT be favored?

According to Sagarin we are 3 "points" better and he gives the home team three points. I believe we'll be favored by < TD.

 

[Southern psu fan]

It's going to be a tough game. Castellanos is really, really good and we haven't done well with mobile quarterbacks. Hopefully tackling continues to trend in the right direction and we can put them in some 3rd and longs.

Get a spy on that QB and get to the football! I’ll take my chances him throwing but he ain’t going to beat us running!

 

[Techster]

I always like to look at this from a recruiting/talent perspective. Obviously, recruiting and talent rankings are subjective, but they are helpful.

IMO, your team (or the other team) has a good shot if they're within 2 tiers...to me, that's fairly close in talent advantage.

GT is ranked #36 in the 247 talent composite, while BC is ranked #54. This is a fairly even matchup from a talent standpoint. We have a slight edge (almost a 2 tier difference), but it's not big enough for GT to walk on the field and think we can just show out (as the Bowling Green game proved).

Some other metrics:

Overall FEI: GT 74, BC 86
Offensive FEI: GT 59, BC 69
Defensive FEI: GT 70, BC 102

GT has a slight advantage from talent and FEI statistical standpoint. I don't expect an easy game, and BC always plays hard. If GT treats this like Bowling Green, we can easily be embarrassed. If we play hard, and don't make mistakes, GT has the ability to win this by 7-10 points.