UNC Series

[GTNavyNuke]

We have control of our destiny! RPI of 18 and tied with UNC for the lead in Coastal. GT bumble bees have become wasps.

We are playing good baseball. Offense is there with hitting and patience at the plate. Defense is good overall; we have been making great plays with the exception of the third ND game (4 errors). Relief pitching is coming around. Still in shock from last night.

Concern is with X who is day to day. Looked like a stiff shoulder. Also with English. Anyone know what's up with him? He looked ok against ND to nail down the win but people have posted he looked uncomfortable.

UNC is a very good team returning most of their CWS players. They are 22-7 with an RPI of 22. The reason we have a higher RPI at 18 having lost two more games (20-9) is that our SoS is 13th while theirs is 45th.

Being at home, we *should* win two of three. I expect close games; we seem to play to the level of our competition sometimes (down to ND in two games and up to L'Ville in 3 games).

Nolan Warren has us winning Friday and Sunday and losing Saturday. How they can come up with that given CT Saturday pitching is interesting. The UNC Saturday pitcher must be really good. But I don's see it. UNC beat Duke 8-7 last Saturday; VT 7-5 the Saturday before and Miami 9-3 the Saturday before. The only ACC Saturday they lost was the first one against Clemson 3-17. But UNC is a much different team from when CLemson swept them.

Take out that Clemson series (can't do that I know) and UNC is 7-2. Take out our Miami series and we are 6-3. These are two good teams. We are playing big boy baseball; and belong.

 

[gtrower]

You’re taking the WN predictor way too seriously. They’re not projecting out starting pitchers and lineups. They’re coming up with an evaluation of team strength based on score/record/schedule to date and then randomizing some variables to come up with a prediction of scores for future games. On Monday it had us sweeping UNC and then getting swept by BC next weekend.

You think he’s analyzing matchups for 300+ teams and then posting it for free?

 

[FredJacket]

Some talk over on Auburn thread about moving CT to Fri. If CDH is to be believed, that's not happening this weekend. Either Xay or Willingham Friday.

I am onboard with moving CT to Fri. If not immediately... then soon. The biggest reason for me is looking ahead to post-season. CT is our best pitcher. That guy needs to start the 1st game of the regional. So...get him in that Fri rhythm asap.

 

[MWBATL]

Some talk over on Auburn thread about moving CT to Fri. If CDH is to be believed, that's not happening this weekend. Either Xay or Willingham Friday.

I am onboard with moving CT to Fri. If not immediately... then soon. The biggest reason for me is looking ahead to post-season. CT is our best pitcher. That guy needs to start the 1st game of the regional. So...get him in that Fri rhythm asap.

I agree on CT for precisely the reason you cited (playoffs). I also would like to see X go on Sundays in general. We all know CDH doesn't like to make such changes. Let's see what plays out.

I suspect we can only count on English one outing per weekend. That is why Gibson and Hughes being good is SO, SO critical for our future success. Then, anything we pick up from other guys like Jake Lee, Bartnicki, Brace, etc becomes gravy or situational and not crucial.

Does sound like Hall is hoping that whatever is going on with X is a this-week-only thing. He appears to be wanting to go back to the regular rotation with Willingham in midweek starts.

Seriously excited and that's ALWAYS a bad sign, or has been the last 5 plus years. Whenever I get excited, we find a way to dump me back into the blues. So, I am going to do my best to NOT get so excited and not get wrapped up in this UNC series. It won't work, but I'll try.

But, oh boy, if we can win this series.......man, we'll be rolling!

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Some talk over on Auburn thread about moving CT to Fri. If CDH is to be believed, that's not happening this weekend. Either Xay or Willingham Friday.

I am onboard with moving CT to Fri. If not immediately... then soon. The biggest reason for me is looking ahead to post-season. CT is our best pitcher. That guy needs to start the 1st game of the regional. So...get him in that Fri rhythm asap.

I'll have to disagree in the thinking that moving CT to Friday would be advantageous for us in a possible Regional, and here's my reasoning on that. Most likely we would be a 1,2, or 3 seed in any Regional, and in game #1, we would play the #2 seed as a 3 seed, the #3 seed as a 2 seed or the #4 seed as a 1 seed. In game #2, assuming we win game #1 with Curry, we would play either the 2 or 3 seed as a 1 seed or the 1 seed most likely as as a 2 or 3 seed for the more difficult matchup in game #2, and I'd like to save CT for the potentially more difficult matchup in game #2. Not to mention that there's just not that much drop off anyway from CT to Xavier. Heck, statistically speaking, Brandt is our second best pitcher right now, and you could just just about three names in a bag and draw one out each day on the weekends.

 

[FredJacket]

I'll have to disagree in the thinking that moving CT to Friday would be advantageous for us in a possible Regional, and here's my reasoning on that. Most likely we would be a 1,2, or 3 seed in any Regional, and in game #1, we would play the #2 seed as a 3 seed, the #3 seed as a 2 seed or the #4 seed as a 1 seed. In game #2, assuming we win game #1 with Curry, we would play either the 2 or 3 seed as a 1 seed or the 1 seed most likely as as a 2 or 3 seed for the more difficult matchup in game #2, and I'd like to save CT for the potentially more difficult matchup in game #2. Not to mention that there's just not that much drop off anyway from CT to Xavier. Heck, statistically speaking, Brandt is our second best pitcher right now, and you could just just about three names in a bag and draw one out each day on the weekends.

We can disagree. & we do in this one. Where we do agree is the 3 weekend guys we have used plus Willingham there is no huge dropoff. That's great!

However, I think you set your starter that gives you best chance to win THE NEXT game. Right now... that's CT for game 1. Once you start playing to beat a "tougher" opponent & "assuming you win game 1" (your words)... you can find yourself in loser's bracket before you've even played your best pitcher. You are now desperate (relatively) & a some other team in the regional has life & confidence.

Now. One caveat... the fact CT & ZAY are LHP & RHP respectively could mean you play matchups if your 1st opponent happens to really struggle v one or the other, then you factor that in too.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

We can disagree. & we do in this one. Where we do agree is the 3 weekend guys we have used plus Willingham there is no huge dropoff. That's great!

However, I think you set your starter that gives you best chance to win THE NEXT game. Right now... that's CT for game 1. Once you start playing to beat a "tougher" opponent & "assuming you win game 1" (your words)... you can find yourself in loser's bracket before you've even played your best pitcher. You are now desperate (relatively) & a some other team in the regional has life & confidence.

Now. One caveat... the fact CT & ZAY are LHP & RHP respectively could mean you play matchups if your 1st opponent happens to really struggle v one or the other, then you factor that in too.

I completely understand what you're saying and can agree to a point. However. There's really no difference in losing game 1 or game 2 regarding the number of games you have to win to get out of the Region so I think you just have to start the pitchers that you give you the best chance to win both games, not just the first one. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

Why not start Brant on Friday? Hes been reliable af so far this season

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

With that said, I have full faith in our starters. Any of the top 3 can pitch on Friday and be alright

 

[THWG]

With that said, I have full faith in our starters. Any of the top 3 can pitch on Friday and be alright

I would say that any of the starters could pitch on Friday. Willingham was a huge pickup this year. I trust all 4 guys to get the job done.

 

[Female Jacket]

Some talk over on Auburn thread about moving CT to Fri. If CDH is to be believed, that's not happening this weekend. Either Xay or Willingham Friday.

I am onboard with moving CT to Fri. If not immediately... then soon. The biggest reason for me is looking ahead to post-season. CT is our best pitcher. That guy needs to start the 1st game of the regional. So...get him in that Fri rhythm asap.

Something isn't right with pitching staff. Being coached as a collegiate athlete myself, Willingham not starting against Auburn is a sign to me. My opinion there are several pitching injuries that haven't been disclosed. Picking up clues from press releases, CDH audios, and watching the dugout from TV, Joe Mannelly arm was in a sling, Curry is some how now hurt, Chapman held his arm when walking off the mound last time I saw him, no sign of Roedig warming up in the bullpen, God only knows about the other freshman Barlow and Friedman, and where is Winborne?

 

[Female Jacket]

Let's hope Curry needs just a week off, Willingham, CT, and Hurter can go 5 innings then Hughes, Gibson, Bartnicki, Brace, and Lee and pick up where the starters left off.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Something isn't right with pitching staff. Being coached as a collegiate athlete myself, Willingham not starting against Auburn is a sign to me. My opinion there are several pitching injuries that haven't been disclosed. Picking up clues from press releases, CDH audios, and watching the dugout from TV, Joe Mannelly arm was in a sling, Curry is some how now hurt, Chapman held his arm when walking off the mound last time I saw him, no sign of Roedig warming up in the bullpen, God only knows about the other freshman Barlow and Friedman, and where is Winborne?

Time will tell. No reason to let the other team know what you have, even though in baseball I think there is far less advantage than football.

The MIAs you list are correct. We just don't know whether the cause is injury or in Hall's dwag house.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have had more pitching injuries than the average team. But I don't know since I don't follow other teams as closely. I do know there are a lot of pitching injures out there. But of course there are 296 other college baseball teams.

I would be surprised if we announce our Friday starter earlier than Friday afternoon when the cards are passed. Just because there is no reason to do so and a miniscule advantage in not doing so. Mostly to mess with UNC if X starts. X is about where he was on average last year http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=208056#OtherPitching

 

[GTRambler]

Somebody on The Hive said Curry has a bad back. I don’t know if this is true or not.

 

[THWG]

Somebody on The Hive said Curry has a bad back. I don’t know if this is true or not.

That's what it looked like on TV last Friday. It seemed like it was stiff and he just couldn't get it stretched out. I'm not too concerned and would rather have him miss one start than the rest of the year.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I said last week 2-2 against these teams would be acceptable. So I need to stick to that. 3-1 would be great. Since we beat the snot out of Auburn, that means in my arbitrary view, 1-2 is -okay-. So man, let’s win the first game unlike ND and take the pressure off. I still think we have no pressure on us. UNC has everything to lose. We still have BC, VT, and Pitt left to play...a much easier road IMHO.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

You’re taking the WN predictor way too seriously. They’re not projecting out starting pitchers and lineups. They’re coming up with an evaluation of team strength based on score/record/schedule to date and then randomizing some variables to come up with a prediction of scores for future games. On Monday it had us sweeping UNC and then getting swept by BC next weekend.

You think he’s analyzing matchups for 300+ teams and then posting it for free?

The Warren Nolan site is fun. Is is accurate in its predictions? Of course not. But is there anything else out there that is good? I haven't found it. The site has to be totally automated, no one is analyzing anything. Only letting the data run through an algorithm. (I think I could improve the algorithm though)

.......... Seriously excited and that's ALWAYS a bad sign, or has been the last 5 plus years. Whenever I get excited, we find a way to dump me back into the blues. So, I am going to do my best to NOT get so excited and not get wrapped up in this UNC series. It won't work, but I'll try.

But, oh boy, if we can win this series.......man, we'll be rolling!

I'm with you on this. We'll be rolling till the next game

I think I'll take Saturday/Sunday off and go hiking with no cell coverage. Pick up the Sunday game on the way home. It is what it is.

 

[OlaJacket]

We have control of our destiny! RPI of 18 and tied with UNC for the lead in Coastal. GT bumble bees have become wasps.

We are playing good baseball. Offense is there with hitting and patience at the plate. Defense is good overall; we have been making great plays with the exception of the third ND game (4 errors). Relief pitching is coming around. Still in shock from last night.

Concern is with X who is day to day. Looked like a stiff shoulder. Also with English. Anyone know what's up with him? He looked ok against ND to nail down the win but people have posted he looked uncomfortable.

UNC is a very good team returning most of their CWS players. They are 22-7 with an RPI of 22. The reason we have a higher RPI at 18 having lost two more games (20-9) is that our SoS is 13th while theirs is 45th.

Being at home, we *should* win two of three. I expect close games; we seem to play to the level of our competition sometimes (down to ND in two games and up to L'Ville in 3 games).

Nolan Warren has us winning Friday and Sunday and losing Saturday. How they can come up with that given CT Saturday pitching is interesting. The UNC Saturday pitcher must be really good. But I don's see it. UNC beat Duke 8-7 last Saturday; VT 7-5 the Saturday before and Miami 9-3 the Saturday before. The only ACC Saturday they lost was the first one against Clemson 3-17. But UNC is a much different team from when CLemson swept them.

Take out that Clemson series (can't do that I know) and UNC is 7-2. Take out our Miami series and we are 6-3. These are two good teams. We are playing big boy baseball; and belong.

Maybe Nolan is thinking CT will go in game 1 if Xza is a no go? But yeah, I feel if CT is our Saturday pitcher that we will win no matter who unc pitches.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Maybe Nolan is thinking CT will go in game 1 if Xza is a no go? But yeah, I feel if CT is our Saturday pitcher that we will win no matter who unc pitches.

I don't think there is any thought (tic). An algorithm is just running. Here is the page that I was referring to: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Georgia-Tech

This morning, Nolan Warren has us winning Friday 5-4, losing Saturday 4-5 and losing Sunday 0-2. Three close games make sense, I think we'll see a lot more runs. But I said that for the L'Ville series too and was wrong.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I just followed your link, and it's now showing a GT sweep. 7-5, 6-5, and 5-3. I'm curious about how he runs his predictor.