Thanks for starting a new thread on this. I'm posting here sort of as a continuation to the direction that the 2020 off-season thread was heading. This is long, gets pretty technical, and is also just one other idiot's opinion. So please feel free to ignore. I don't plan on posting many more times on this. So, I figured I'd try to get most of my thoughts out in one post.
Red, thanks for mentioning the model from the University of Washington. Here's a link for anyone that is curious
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs I first became aware of this site about a week ago and think it's pretty cool particularly for predicting hospital resource availability for individual states. I did read the part about 97% of the US population being susceptible after the first wave. I would be interested to know what data is being used to arrive at that 97%. Unfortunately, I couldn't figure it out from the website. My guess, however, is that they are likely making a projection about the number of people in the US who will have been exposed to the virus during the first wave using the current number of people that have tested positive and the pace at which this has occurred. This is not unreasonable because it is really the only hard data available, but it would almost certainly be a very large underestimate of exposure as there are many people who have minimal to no symptoms who aren't being tested.
It is probable that that there will be a second wave of the virus, and a third, etc. but these will likely be akin to aftershocks from an earthquake in that they will be significantly less severe. Our healthcare system will probably be able to manage this second wave without the shortages in supplies, beds, and staffing that we are seeing now. If this is indeed true, there will be no indication to implement the type of social restrictions we are seeing now whenever a second wave comes. I will say that once the first wave diminishes, we are likely to see intermittent local outbreaks for months to years that will need to be managed with isolation precautions, but nothing that will require sweeping nationwide isolation.
In thinking about the upcoming football season, I would like to share thoughts about the social isolation we are experiencing now. This type of isolation at the moment is absolutely necessary, but it is a marginally effective blunt instrument that carries with it a lot of collateral damage. I have generally not been happy with the response from our commander-in-chief, but I think he had a fair point when he said that, "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself." This isolation follows the law of diminishing returns, and I suspect that once we reach 8-12 weeks of it, we will have reached a point where its risks outweigh its benefits. Obviously, this doesn't mean that we will just return to life as usual, but the shelter-in-place rules are going to disappear and are unlikely to return on a nation-wide scale.
Hindsight is 20-20, but as a nation were caught off guard especially in regard to testing. However, we have a chance to catch up with immunity testing which is expected to be available in 3-5 weeks. It will be interesting to see how this is used, but for large groups of people that regularly meet together - such as a football team, for example - this type of testing may prove very valuable.
Lastly, why am I posting my opinion on COVID-19 on this message board? Basically, I see a lot of worry in the world and it's a legitimate response to what's going on. But what I don't want to see is unnecessary worry. Lets's be concerned about the elderly and chronically ill and try to protect them as best we can. Sadly, there's still risk for the young and healthy too, but exposure to COVID-19 is not something that is avoidable for long for the vast majority of people. Let's flatten this curve and then get back to work. Life will never be the same after this. Sporting events like football will look different particularly for the fans, but sports is undoubtedly of great benefit to our society and especially to us Hell of Engineers. I'm optimistic we will see the brave and bold on Grant Field September 3rd and hope there is a whole lot of white and gold in the stands watching.
