I am expecting a partial season but not a full one right now.
They are going to do everything possible to try to get games in due to the money involved but this is a unique situation.
It's just too early to know.
i think it is getting more unlikely that the season starts on time. You already have multiple schools and multiple states that have said no students on campus this summer (with some cancelling all summer camps and conferences) - I don't think you can make an argument it is not ok for students to be on campus but it is ok for SA's to be on campus.
If most schools across the country go to that route then there is almost no chance of starting on time. That would mean no students until August. You can't just line the football players up and play.
They have had almost no spring practice, no 'voluntary' summer workouts. No big time supervision. Kids are going to be coming into school this fall in worse shape physically than normal so it will take longer to get ready to play. I'm hoping maybe if all is well in terms of health that the season can start around mid-to-late September.
The single biggest key is this - there has to be extensive, rapid testing available. If there is not then this is all an academic discussion. And that testing cannot impact the ability of everyday citizens to get tested. The second big key is having a treatment for this, not a vaccine, but a working treatment. Right now, anybody who gets this is out 2 weeks and anybody they are in contact with is out 2 weeks without the extensive testing.
The first big sign will be decisions on whether students are on campus this fall. If that is a no then there will be no sports.
Also, keep a close eye on CA. What they do will have a huge impact on both college and professional sports. Right now there are multiple officials in CA saying they do not expect to allow sports before Thanksgiving at the earliest. Given how many professional and college teams are based in that state, they can almost single handedly keep the sports world at a stop. it was CA that forced the name, image, likeness issue to be addressed.
We just have no idea. A number of European countries are getting ready to slowly start to open back up - countries that had much fewer cases than the countries that struggled like US, Italy, Spain, UK and France. But their re-openings are being done very slowly and very cautiously. Denmark for example is not going to allow any large gatherings until at least August. All of them had restrictions more severe than the US, so their easing up and opening is bringing them to a level just slightly more open than the US is now. Some aren't allowing restaurants to re-open yet. All of them have restrictions of what businesses can open and how many people can be in contact with each other. Some are keeping cinemas, shopping centers and clubs closed. Some are requiring masks to be worn in public.
The AD of Ohio State had an interview with CBSSports a couple of days ago. He said it makes no sense to have sports being played without fans. If it is too dangerous for fans to be there, then it is too dangerous for SA's to be there. Has to be a both or neither. He is hoping to play but also is working on a plan on how to handle a $50M revenue loss (that is their revenue for 7 home games before any TV revenue).
When you read articles with quotes from AD's and administrators from across the country it is fairly consistent that the ones from the South tend to be the most optimistic about playing this fall, the ones in the West are the most pessimistic, and the ones in the Midwest and NE are sort of in the middle hoping to play but not expecting to yet.
The NCAA is setting up a committee whose purpose will be to look into all the issues and make the ultimate decisions on whether to allow college sports to proceed this fall.
I will say one thing though. College sports will not be the first sports back. There is no chance that college administrators with students and student athletes will take that risk. If there is no professional sports being played by mid-to-late July you can probably expect no college sports in the fall. Professional sports with paid players will play before college sports will. The one I am paying the most attention to right now is the PGA. if any sport in the US is likely to go first they make the most sense. It's an individual sport so its pretty easy to keep players separated. They play outdoors over a huge area. It is the one sport that could pretty easily play with no fans in person for at least a while. The first scheduled event up is the PGA Championship starting Aug 6. If that gets postponed, then trouble is a brewing in the sports world.
