Tech vs. Louisville

[TromboneJacket]

Further than that even, right? Most programs don't change that drastically year over year. Coach stays the same, roster evolves, lose some production, gain some production. Those are all fairly "modeling friendly" events.

Then there are the Deion's or the "wow maybe Geoff Collins really brought the whole thing down that much" rare events.

They're tougher to figure out how to quantify and they might not even make a big impact on your overall model quality evaluation. Are you testing more for "how accurate did this do on the largest number of teams" or "how accurate did this do on the most random one-off changes"? Or trying to weigh both somehow? From what I've seen, the majority of systems built out there right now are squarely in the first camp: predict well for the standard cases. So even if some of them do better on the wildcard cases, that doesn't mean that anyone necessarily can tell you which ones those are or has a good way of ranking for that.

No wonder the media always got predictions wrong when CPJ was here. Especially his last few years, we were really up and down! No wonder the talking heads hated us.

 

[Buzzbomb]

Fairly good preview, especially the quotes from both Head Football Coaches:

 

[forensicbuzz]

Further than that even, right? Most programs don't change that drastically year over year. Coach stays the same, roster evolves, lose some production, gain some production. Those are all fairly "modeling friendly" events.

Then there are the Deion's or the "wow maybe Geoff Collins really brought the whole thing down that much" rare events.

They're tougher to figure out how to quantify and they might not even make a big impact on your overall model quality evaluation. Are you testing more for "how accurate did this do on the largest number of teams" or "how accurate did this do on the most random one-off changes"? Or trying to weigh both somehow? From what I've seen, the majority of systems built out there right now are squarely in the first camp: predict well for the standard cases. So even if some of them do better on the wildcard cases, that doesn't mean that anyone necessarily can tell you which ones those are or has a good way of ranking for that.

None of this is relevant to what I'm saying. Yes, this is all true. However, with the portal the way it is and NIL, there's more movement between teams than there ever has been in the past. We're looking at 30-40% roster turnover year over year. Part of that roster turnover is with players that would have never left in the past. It's going to take 2-3 seasons for EVERYONE to really gain an understanding of how to handle all the portal movement. Right now, educated people are putting their best guess forward, but until we get actual data, it's still just a guess.

 

[78pike]

I'm pretty sure the smart people who run these models will be able to account for the portal, save for the extreme tail events like a Colorado. They already quantify a player's recruiting rating, their on the field rating, the player's value above replacement, a coaching staff's ability to coach talent up (or down in Clown's case), and the value of continuity on both offense and defense (and positional groupings).

Maybe the day will come when they just use each player's Madden rating like they do in the pros. Those ratings are a much truer depiction of a player's strengths and weaknesses than any arbitrary ratings system that biases the ratings for subscriptions. I haven't played Madden in a long time but I do know they have teams of people that attend practices and watch film on every player to come up with their ratings. Would be great if that could be done for every player in college like it is for the NFL.

 

[Tech Lawyer]

Tech 27 Louisville 14 Everyone must remember that the clock will not stop to move the chains after a first down except during the final two minutes of each half. I heard Mack Brown say he estimates this will shave off 8-9 offensive plays per team.

 

[Gtech50]

Tech 27 Louisville 14 Everyone must remember that the clock will not stop to move the chains after a first down except during the final two minutes of each half. I heard Mack Brown say he estimates this will shave off 8-9 offensive plays per team.

It sounds like Faulkner runs a pretty fast pace offense so that might honestly be a benefit to us. Teams with slower offenses will be forced to speed up

 

[UgaBlows]

Tech 27 Louisville 14 Everyone must remember that the clock will not stop to move the chains after a first down except during the final two minutes of each half. I heard Mack Brown say he estimates this will shave off 8-9 offensive plays per team.

Hurry-up offensives like Tennessee runs are going to become prominent

 

[AUFC]

Tech 27 Louisville 14 Everyone must remember that the clock will not stop to move the chains after a first down except during the final two minutes of each half. I heard Mack Brown say he estimates this will shave off 8-9 offensive plays per team.

You all will be glad to know the game length isn't any shorter though. They filled up all the time saved in Week 0 with additional commercials!

 

[lv20gt]

It sounds like Faulkner runs a pretty fast pace offense so that might honestly be a benefit to us. Teams with slower offenses will be forced to speed up

I don't think the playclock has changed at all, just the game clock keeps running so I don't think it'll have an impact on speeding teams up outside of end of half scenarios.

 

[CEB]

You all will be glad to know the game length isn't any shorter though. They filled up all the time saved in Week 0 with additional commercials!

And every fourth play gets replayed a half a dozen times, so it feels like you’re watching the same amount of football too

 

[awbuzz]

Fairly good preview, especially the quotes from both Head Football Coaches:

Well, I'd have been shocked if he came out and said "we're going to just run a half dozen plays and and make sure everyone gets to play and that win or lose it all 'bout the fun of playing. It's just a game"

 

[awbuzz]

You all will be glad to know the game length isn't any shorter though. They filled up all the time saved in Week 0 with additional commercials!

the "like" is because it's true, not because I like it... especially when sitting in the stands!

 

[yeti92]

It sounds like Faulkner runs a pretty fast pace offense so that might honestly be a benefit to us. Teams with slower offenses will be forced to speed up

Outside of the final 2 minutes of each half ( where the rule hasn't changed anyway), seems to me an offense that eats clock benefits from this change because they can eat even more clock. I would have loved to see CPJ stretch a drive 15+minutes while watching the other team panic.

 

[CEB]

Outside of the final 2 minutes of each half ( where the rule hasn't changed anyway), seems to me an offense that eats clock benefits from this change because they can eat even more clock. I would have loved to see CPJ stretch a drive 15+minutes while watching the other team panic.

Is it a 40 second play clock after a first down? Imagine running another 40 seconds on every conversion... yikes!

 

[forensicbuzz]

Outside of the final 2 minutes of each half ( where the rule hasn't changed anyway), seems to me an offense that eats clock benefits from this change because they can eat even more clock. I would have loved to see CPJ stretch a drive 15+minutes while watching the other team panic.

What it does is allows the hurry-up offense to also eat the clock.

 

[JacketFan137]

What it does is allows the hurry-up offense to also eat the clock.

it also allows for an extra 15 minutes of ads to fill up the allotted tv slot

 

[tmhunter52]

Hopefully ‘Ol Plummer has some itches from his allergic reaction to the turf.

 

[Root4GT]

Is it a 40 second play clock after a first down? Imagine running another 40 seconds on every conversion... yikes!

It’s a 40 second play clock on all plays where the clock is running. Incomplete pass stops the clock as do penalties. Out of bounds temporarily stops the clock until the official spots the ball. The rule change on not stopping the clock after 1st downs is expected to reduce the number of plays by about 8 or so per team. Also the hope is to cut about 15-20 minutes off the time to play the game.

 

[RamblinRed]

Honestly, Friday can't get here soon enough. Looking forward to the game.

I honestly have no clue about this game since there is so much turnover with both clubs. I could see GT win by 20, lose by 20 or anything in-between.
My gut is with it being a week 1 matchup between 2 teams with similar talent levels it will end up being a close game and TO's and penalties could play an outsize role.

 

[LargeFO]

Honestly, Friday can't get here soon enough. Looking forward to the game.

I honestly have no clue about this game since there is so much turnover with both clubs. I could see GT win by 20, lose by 20 or anything in-between.
My gut is with it being a week 1 matchup between 2 teams with similar talent levels it will end up being a close game and TO's and penalties could play an outsize role.

It would surprise me if it's wide gap either way.