There are calls every game where I can see it either way. This was one of them. If Key takes the penalty or not, I can see the rationale of both tactics.
And while analytics has its place, if a coach uses it to make all his decisions, perhaps we could save money by replacing him with an AI robot.
This is where I am too. We can analytic it to death and still be wrong in the moment.
Honestly, I think it’s a coin flip decision and the bottom line is you need a stop regardless.
Refuse penalty: Given how long we had been on the field defensively, making one play seemed like a good call to me. It had the added benefit of saving a time out and / or some clock. It was also 3rd and 10… not like they had a layup. Not to mention, if you give up the first down you still have all three TO and over two minutes left. There was another realistic shot at a stop (which we blew on a missed tackle). If they convert after accepting the penalty and burning the TO, you are toast.
Take penalty: yes, it probably forces them to become vanilla but they get two chances to pick up chunk yardage (which they ultimately did anyway). Also a chance that they take a shot on 2nd and we give it right back on a penalty.
Hot take: I think the decision was virtually irrelevant. We’re only analyzing because of a failure to execute defensively.
Other thoughts…
Middle 8: was a strength the first two games and we completely blew opportunities yesterday. We didn’t lose on the scoreboard but we squandered a great special teams play at the end of the half. I’m not sure what confusion we had on 2nd down after the short run by singleton but we wasted over 20 seconds of clock. I don’t fault being a little conservative on play calling, but we had two time outs and weren’t getting set. We really put all of our eggs in the long FG basket.
Then we follow that up with a 3 and out to start the third, and another short possession after the D got a rare stop. That was the difference in the game right there.
Toughness: everyone still focused on physical toughness. Not the problem yesterday. Mental toughness was lacking most of the day. Timing off, unforced errors, poor decisions… the good news? The fourth quarter. We found a little fire that had been lacking all day. It’s funny how “breaks” fall your way when you’re playing fast and confident. For 3 quarters, all of those breaks went to the Orange.