Statistics that give me hope about our offense

[forensicbuzz]

Ok, hate to be the downer here but you are doing stats on three games. And FSU is terrible. Let's see how we are after we add in Clemson, ND, Miami, Pitt etc. Uga alone last year , 18 punts, accounted for a lot of 3 and outs.

Here is the real stat we need to be concerned about 18 points, that is what we average per game when we include last year and this year.

That's a dumb stat. Last year's team is nothing like this year's team. What last year's team did has ZERO impact on this year's team.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That's a dumb stat. Last year's team is nothing like this year's team. What last year's team did has ZERO impact on this year's team.

Last year's offense averaged:
* 13 points per game in regulation against FBS teams (we had a safety, special teams TD, defensive TD, and overtime TD that shouldn't be included in our regular offense's data IMHO).
* 286 yards per game
* 41 yards of penalties per game
* 1.7 turnovers per game

This year's offense has averaged:
* 19 points per game in regulation against FBS teams
* 454 yards per game
* 78 yards of penalties per game
* 4.0 turnovers per game

We are significantly better in points and yardage. And you can see the extreme negative impact on both by our regression in penalties and turnovers.

Reducing turnovers and penalties is infinitely easier than overhauling your offense. We have the chance to be a good team if we can fix problems in these areas. We have significantly improved from last year.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Last year's offense averaged:
* 13 points per game in regulation against FBS teams (we had a safety, special teams TD, defensive TD, and overtime TD that shouldn't be included in our regular offense's data IMHO).
* 286 yards per game
* 41 yards of penalties per game
* 1.7 turnovers per game

This year's offense has averaged:
* 19 points per game in regulation against FBS teams
* 454 yards per game
* 78 yards of penalties per game
* 4.0 turnovers per game

We are significantly better in points and yardage. And you can see the extreme negative impact on both by our regression in penalties and turnovers.

Reducing turnovers and penalties is infinitely easier than overhauling your offense. We have the chance to be a good team if we can fix problems in these areas. We have significantly improved from last year.

Well we have got 4 games coming up that will tell us how and if our offense is a bit better than last year. Louisville defense may not be great, but the next three are.

 

[WreckinGT]

Last year's offense averaged:
* 13 points per game in regulation against FBS teams (we had a safety, special teams TD, defensive TD, and overtime TD that shouldn't be included in our regular offense's data IMHO).
* 286 yards per game
* 41 yards of penalties per game
* 1.7 turnovers per game

This year's offense has averaged:
* 19 points per game in regulation against FBS teams
* 454 yards per game
* 78 yards of penalties per game
* 4.0 turnovers per game

We are significantly better in points and yardage. And you can see the extreme negative impact on both by our regression in penalties and turnovers.

Reducing turnovers and penalties is infinitely easier than overhauling your offense. We have the chance to be a good team if we can fix problems in these areas. We have significantly improved from last year.

To be fair, the three teams we have played so far this year are probably in the lower tier of defenses we play this year. Comparing that to a data set that includes Clemson, UGA, and Pitt, all of which were in the top 15 in total defense last year is a little uneven. Our next 6 games is going to be a tougher test for our offense than what they have seen so far.

 

[Scubapro]

Last year's offense averaged:
* 13 points per game in regulation against FBS teams (we had a safety, special teams TD, defensive TD, and overtime TD that shouldn't be included in our regular offense's data IMHO).
* 286 yards per game
* 41 yards of penalties per game
* 1.7 turnovers per game

This year's offense has averaged:
* 19 points per game in regulation against FBS teams
* 454 yards per game
* 78 yards of penalties per game
* 4.0 turnovers per game

We are significantly better in points and yardage. And you can see the extreme negative impact on both by our regression in penalties and turnovers.

Reducing turnovers and penalties is infinitely easier than overhauling your offense. We have the chance to be a good team if we can fix problems in these areas. We have significantly improved from last year.

Three point increase in points is significant ?

 

[lv20gt]

Three point increase in points is significant ?

Math is hard.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Three point increase in points is significant ?

We went from 13 to 19. 19 - 13 = 6 / 50%.
Again, I am not saying we are good. I am saying we have a chance to be good if we fix some things.

 

[Scubapro]

Math is hard.

LOL...yes it is. I was thinking 16 last year. but still

 

[Deleted member 2897]

To be fair, the three teams we have played so far this year are probably in the lower tier of defenses we play this year. Comparing that to a data set that includes Clemson, UGA, and Pitt, all of which were in the top 15 in total defense last year is a little uneven. Our next 6 games is going to be a tougher test for our offense than what they have seen so far.

Here is our offensive yardage against some of the bad teams we played last year. Without exception, every game this year is higher than our high point last year, regardless of opponent.

Virginia Tech: 134 yards
South Florida: 257 yards
Citadel: 301 yards
Temple: 305 yards
Virginia: 372 yards
Duke: 379 yards
NC State: 395 yards

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

We went from 13 to 19. 19 - 13 = 6 / 50%.
Again, I am not saying we are good. I am saying we have a chance to be good if we fix some things.

I don't think its a terrible assumption to think we could be averaging points / game somewhere around 23 if our TO's and penalties were to regress back to last years amounts.

Not to say that it would be impressive output by itself, but that year over year increase in offensive production would be exceptional in the points column.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

LOL...yes it is. I was thinking 16 last year. but still

Well, you all should actually read my post before you laugh at it. . In the post I explained if we're comparing offense to offense, then we should only count offensive points. We averaged 13 points last year if you exclude non-offensive scores like safeties, special teams scores, and defensive scores.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I don't think its a terrible assumption to think we could be averaging points / game somewhere around 23 if our TO's and penalties were to regress back to last years amounts.

Not to say that it would be impressive output by itself, but that year over year increase in offensive production would be exceptional in the points column.

Hell, that's only like 3 points more. We'd be averaging more than that if we could just kick the ball. Looking at our points per drive when we don't have turnovers, it implies closer to 30 points per game if we could clean up say half our penalties and turnovers.

 

[Scubapro]

Well, you all should actually read my post before you laugh at it. . In the post I explained if we're comparing offense to offense, then we should only count offensive points. We averaged 13 points last year if you exclude non-offensive scores like safeties, special teams scores, and defensive scores.

Sorry...wasnt laughing at you but myself at not getting the numbers correct.

 

[WreckinGT]

Here is our offensive yardage against some of the bad teams we played last year. Without exception, every game this year is higher than our high point last year, regardless of opponent.

Virginia Tech: 134 yards
South Florida: 257 yards
Citadel: 301 yards
Temple: 305 yards
Virginia: 372 yards
Duke: 379 yards
NC State: 395 yards

Im just saying comparing a 3 game season against mostly mediocre defenses to a 12 game season that included some great defenses is a bit silly. Especially when we haven't yet played a team this year that we played last year for any kind of comparison. Im also not sure that total yards is quite as meaningful of a stat as you seem to think it is.

 

[SWATlien]

Even if we got rid of turnovers completely, our offense still needs to improve. That would probably take it from really bad to below average though.

An offense that’s averaging 400 plus yards is not bad.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Im just saying comparing a 3 game season against mostly mediocre defenses to a 12 game season that included some great defenses is a bit silly. Especially when we haven't yet played a team this year that we played last year for any kind of comparison. Im also not sure that total yards is quite as meaningful of a stat as you seem to think it is.

Well your point is valid about the fact that its early. But there's nothing silly about comparing our stats based on what we have available. The fact every single game has been more productive than our highest water mark last year matters. The fact that we put up significantly more production than even against the bad teams (in some cases 2-3x more) last year matters. When evaluating an offense, points yards turnovers and penalties are significant metrics. You can indeed also choose others, like time of possession, yards per play, and so on. Whatever floats your boat.

 

[InsideLB]

Agree in the 13 vs 19 ppg discussion the Ds you go up against matter.

Yet we must also admit we have garnered this ppg improvement despite missing a BUNCH of FGs and and having a 300% increase in turnovers

Just watching the O it passes the eyeball test in terms of moving the ball. They did not handle Cuse's 3-3-5 exotic pressure well, and that caused TOs and short fields that put us behind. Throw in some true frosh mistakes, a rash of penalties, giving up returns to create yet more short fields, and a D that (besides DNP Curtis Ryans) cant get pressure and there's your ballgame.

85% of the time teams that rush for 250+ win in CFB. We are a talented yet young, developing team that made too many mistakes and due to depth issues we can ill afford the loss of key starters, especially on the D line.

Think Sims would have benefitted from having a TE to throw to? Cuse did not have to defend the TE in the passing game, taking away a major safety valve from Sims (see FSU game). Coco is a bad *** blocking but as a converted OL is super raw as a receiver.

I think we are a better team this year but still super young and super thin. Lack of a kicker who can get the ball up quick on FGs is a tragic flaw.

Am I worried about penalties and lack of focus/discipline? Yes. With the pandemic, maybe we also needed to practice in total silence to prep for the empty Carrier Dome. However, we are very young so not completelt WTF to get a game like this.

With a bye week we will see if we can get some of this self-inflicted crap corrected. Guys gotta work hard.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Well, most of this is true, but its not necessarily a problem of once he gets inside the opponent's 30. 3 of Sims' 4 interceptions were between the 30s. Another interception that was called back for pass interference was also between the 30s. He also had some terrible luck with 2 deflected balls that landed right in the opponents' arms like a christmas present.

We have an incredible stable of running backs - rotating all 3 and keeping them all fresh should be a tremendous advantage to help take pressure off Sims. We know that our opponents aren't stupid - they're going to bring pressure against our freshman QB because it works. There are plays that counter that, many of which feature our running backs. I sure hope our coaching staff can take a step back, make some adjustments, and help us play cleaner football.

It's not just the INTs. Our red zone efficiency is 6th worst in the NCAA so far. His completion % drops there and he's been fortunate a few of those throws haven't been picked. But again, this is IMO an experience issue. He will get it ironed out and probably before the end of the season. I agree that all is not as bad as it looks. There has clearly been progress made with the offense. Maybe the Syracuse game was an anomaly and we will see a much improved product on the field in the near future. Either way, we are miles ahead of last year, but we have still got a ways to go. Gonna take time and some lumps along the way.

 

[WreckinGT]

Well your point is valid about the fact that its early. But there's nothing silly about comparing our stats based on what we have available. The fact every single game has been more productive than our highest water mark last year matters. The fact that we put up significantly more production than even against the bad teams (in some cases 2-3x more) last year matters. When evaluating an offense, points yards turnovers and penalties are significant metrics. You can indeed also choose others, like time of possession, yards per play, and so on. Whatever floats your boat.

Have we put up significantly more production? We had more points and yards per play against Citadel, UNC, UVA, and NC State last year than any game so far this year. See how easy that is to twist around?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Have we put up significantly more production? We had more points and yards per play against Citadel, UNC, UVA, and NC State last year than any game so far this year. See how easy that is to twist around?

You just quoted games where we had 150 yess offensive yards per game. Yes, it is easy to twist data. I can definitely go pick games where we got some turnovers with short fields and skew my arguments too. Against NC State, half our scoring drives started on their side of the field. Against UNC, we scored 22 points, so you're holding them up as someone who scored more points against, simply because it was 2 points and we made our kicks and a 2-point conversion - which is special teams. You included an FCS team to show how good our offense was last year, LOL.

At some point you just have to wonder why some people constantly work so hard to try and spin things as negatively as possible.