Statistics that give me hope about our offense

[Deleted member 2897]

If is a big word. Lots of things would be different if... We do have the turnovers so the data is factually correct. I agree that things aren't as bad as they seem, but they aren't good right now either. We are most likely at least another year away from being decent again.

Give it a rest. I told you what I disagreed with that wasn’t true, and it didn’t include those things. Stop bringing up things that weren’t part of the conversation just to create an argument.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Give it a rest. I told you what I disagreed with that wasn’t true, and it didn’t include those things. Stop bringing up things that weren’t part of the conversation just to create an argument.

I am not. I replied gotcha but then you stated that I was wrong for seeing that some of the post was factual. It was. You persisted in the argument, not me.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I am not. I replied gotcha but then you stated that I was wrong for seeing that some of the post was factual. It was. You persisted in the argument, not me.

False. And false.

 

[jgtengineer]

So now we are creating our own metrics? Geez Louise

Not really, an empty drive is an empty drive. I said I count it as the same thing. If you are explosive but careless it doesn't help. I mean look how many fumbles we had in 2017. Does it matter we put up over 500 yards on the ground against tenn? Nope we turned the ball over and lost the game.

 

[GTBandit22]

The false starts and procedural stuff is inexplicable. To the naked eye, it seems like we are guilty of iton most every play and not just even what we were actually flagged for. In an empty stadium.With a year's experience on the Ol and regression in this area, could it be adjusting to a new qb and his snap cadence? I know this is grasping at straws but these should be fixable and are clouding the perception of the very obvious improve statistically. Thanks to the OP for pulling that together. As my friend used to say..."in God I trust, all others must bring data!".

Well two of the starters weren’t on our team last season. The other three were but they are a new unit and one is a true freshman.
The OL isn’t where we want them but they are much better than last year.
And the stadium was empty but they were pumping in crowd noise, so it might as well have been full and rocking.
Gotta clean up the mistakes but I’m optimistic that barring major injury, we will have a good unit up front.

 

[JacketOff]

Not really, an empty drive is an empty drive. I said I count it as the same thing. If you are explosive but careless it doesn't help. I mean look how many fumbles we had in 2017. Does it matter we put up over 500 yards on the ground against tenn? Nope we turned the ball over and lost the game.

You do understand that a 3 and out and an empty drive are not the same things, right? Gaining positive yards and getting 1 or more first downs in a drive is very different than running 3 plays and punting.

 

[jgtengineer]

You do understand that a 3 and out and an empty drive are not the same things, right? Gaining positive yards and getting 1 or more first downs in a drive is very different than running 3 plays and punting.

Depends on the nature of the 3 and out and how quick you are running it. Last year we ran a lot of tempo. So a 3 and out was basically a turnover that ate no time of the clock resulting in a failed drive that still immediately turned the ball back over to the opposing team and lead to the defense tiring out. The main thing here is we at least look "prettier" i guess. I quesiton if the penalty rate is any different or if we simply have more opportunities for offense alignment penalties now.

 

[JacketOff]

Depends on the nature of the 3 and out and how quick you are running it. Last year we ran a lot of tempo. So a 3 and out was basically a turnover that ate no time of the clock resulting in a failed drive that still immediately turned the ball back over to the opposing team and lead to the defense tiring out. The main thing here is we at least look "prettier" i guess. I quesiton if the penalty rate is any different or if we simply have more opportunities for offense alignment penalties now.

This literally makes no sense. A 3 and out that eats up 1:40 of clock is no better than one than takes less than a minute. Gaining yards allows you to control the field, which is much more important than controlling the clock. A 40 yard drive that ends with an interception is not even close to being the same as a 3 and out.

 

[ibeattetris]

This literally makes no sense. A 3 and out that eats up 1:40 of clock is no better than one than takes less than a minute. Gaining yards allows you to control the field, which is much more important than controlling the clock. A 40 yard drive that ends with an interception is not even close to being the same as a 3 and out.

I agree in premise, but a three and out that takes less time means less time for the defense to rest, it could also mean giving an opponent more scoring opportunities. Otherwise, I tend to agree.

 

[ibeattetris]

I quesiton if the penalty rate is any different or if we simply have more op

Penalties per play is up almost 2x from last year over the first three games. 0.03 last year vs 0.07 currently.

 

[JacketOff]

I agree in premise, but a three and out that takes less time means less time for the defense to rest, it could also mean giving an opponent more scoring opportunities. Otherwise, I tend to agree.

Well, first of all that wasn’t the primary point of my post. My point was that a turnover or any other end to a drive that doesn’t result in points is not the same as a 3 and out, which is what jg is trying to say. Second of all, the defense gets the same amount of rest whether the game clock is running or not. 3 incomplete passes and running down the play clock doesn’t mean that there’s less actual time between plays or drives.

 

[ibeattetris]

Some more stats:
Average Yard Per Drive for all Teams:
34.27

Average Yards Per Play All Teams:
6.17

Average available yard percentage:
47%

Gt Respectively
33.12
5.98
41.7%

Given this, we are doing okay when comparing average yards per drive and per play. We just need to now find a way to convert some drives to points in the coming weeks.

 

[tech_wreck47]

3 and out and turnovers are the same.

Disagree, we aren't throwing many 40 plus yard Int’s and we have a putter who is consistently booming punts.

 

[WreckinGT]

The point of the thread was that if we clean up turnovers we can be a good team. He offered a bunch of data that are derivations of throwing 10 interceptions, to arrive at a conclusion that we suck even if we clean up turnovers. If we clean up turnovers, all the data you just quoted materially change.

It wasn’t derivations at all. Saying we have scored on 2 of our last 16 drives in the 2nd half only includes 6 turnovers. Even if you eliminate those drives, you still punted 4 times as much as you scored. It should be noted also that some of those turnovers were on third and long near mid field which would have likely resulted in a punt. Our QB being under last 50% passing the last two games isn’t really impacted much by the turnovers. I’m not sure how that is a derivation. The red zone numbers I guess can be argued as a derivation. Although there isn’t much evidence that we would have scored had we not turned the ball over.

I also wonder why an offense cant be judged by turnovers and penalties as well, but maybe that is just me. Some of us are pretending that those are just going to vanish soon when they seem to be getting worse.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

It’s not just turnovers, it’s piss poor red zone execution and the worst kicking game in college football. Holding onto the ball doesn’t guarantee more points.

 

[JacketOff]

It’s not just turnovers, it’s piss poor red zone execution and the worst kicking game in college football. Holding onto the ball doesn’t guarantee more points.

Statistically, yeah it does...

 

[ibeattetris]

I also wonder why an offense cant be judged by turnovers and penalties as well, but maybe that is just me. Some of us are pretending that those are just going to vanish soon when they seem to be getting worse.

At least for me, this thread was what stats give me hope, not which ones give me nightmares
The fact that our penalty rate is up by 2x and our turnover rate is historically high is incredibly bad. I also assume that we are in severe outlier territory and a regression towards the mean is more likely than not. I have nothing to base this on though other than no team last year had as many penalties per play as we do currently. This just seems to indicate a regression towards the mean.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It wasn’t derivations at all. Saying we have scored on 2 of our last 16 drives in the 2nd half only includes 6 turnovers. Even if you eliminate those drives, you still punted 4 times as much as you scored. It should be noted also that some of those turnovers were on third and long near mid field which would have likely resulted in a punt. Our QB being under last 50% passing the last two games isn’t really impacted much by the turnovers. I’m not sure how that is a derivation. The red zone numbers I guess can be argued as a derivation. Although there isn’t much evidence that we would have scored had we not turned the ball over.

I also wonder why an offense cant be judged by turnovers and penalties as well, but maybe that is just me. Some of us are pretending that those are just going to vanish soon when they seem to be getting worse.

He was 13/28 Saturday with 4 interceptions. It’s not a stretch to assume if he doesn’t throw 4 interceptions that 1 of those 4 balls is caught by us and he’s 14/28.

“I also wonder why an offense cant be judged by turnovers and penalties as well, but maybe that is just me.”

This makes no sense, it’s exactly what we’re doing.

The point of contention is that you said even if we didn’t have so many turnovers and penalties, we’d still be a below average offense. That was the sticking point. Nobody is happy with the turnovers and penalties. But there’s no reason to be irrationally negative about it and say we’d still be bad anyway.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I've said it before, and it bears repeating, but we are likely to see lots of great offensive numbers without a lot of scoring this year. Freshman QBs often excel between the 30s when the entire playbook is open and the field is less congested, but often struggle when the field tightens up and defenses get the boost of a short field. Sims is a consummate freshman QB, and he will likely continue to make a fair amount of mistakes. It's not like we have an option of a non freshman QB on our roster (excepting Graham, who was not ATL last week) so IIWII. As the season progresses, I think we will see him begin to settle in more, and we will probably end up winning at least one game we shouldn't because of him. The talent is there, it just needs to gain experience.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I've said it before, and it bears repeating, but we are likely to see lots of great offensive numbers without a lot of scoring this year. Freshman QBs often excel between the 30s when the entire playbook is open and the field is less congested, but often struggle when the field tightens up and defenses get the boost of a short field. Sims is a consummate freshman QB, and he will likely continue to make a fair amount of mistakes. It's not like we have an option of a non freshman QB on our roster (excepting Graham, who was not ATL last week) so IIWII. As the season progresses, I think we will see him begin to settle in more, and we will probably end up winning at least one game we shouldn't because of him. The talent is there, it just needs to gain experience.

Well, most of this is true, but its not necessarily a problem of once he gets inside the opponent's 30. 3 of Sims' 4 interceptions were between the 30s. Another interception that was called back for pass interference was also between the 30s. He also had some terrible luck with 2 deflected balls that landed right in the opponents' arms like a christmas present.

We have an incredible stable of running backs - rotating all 3 and keeping them all fresh should be a tremendous advantage to help take pressure off Sims. We know that our opponents aren't stupid - they're going to bring pressure against our freshman QB because it works. There are plays that counter that, many of which feature our running backs. I sure hope our coaching staff can take a step back, make some adjustments, and help us play cleaner football.