Statistics that give me hope about our offense

[ibeattetris]

Partial list of teams behind us in total offense per game this year:

Alabama
Notre Dame
LSU
Louisville
Texas Tech
Georgia
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Auburn
There are 46 more......and only 72 FBS teams have played. We are 19th.

At least a third of the posters on this board need to stop showing their ignorance. The "play calling" complainers the worst. I've listened to that stuff from fans of all teams for 40 years, and every time I hear it I think how stupid it sounds. As if there is some play that is magically going to score a touchdown if the OC would just call it. Such complaints show a complete lack of understanding of the complexities of college football.

Since you listed them first, I’ll look at Alabama.

They had 10 drives. Scored 38. 414 total yards

Their average points per drive was 3.8 and average yards per drive was 41.4. Considering we are averaging less than 30 yards per drive, I think we should relax before comparing ourselves to them.

Gt is currently averaging over 13 drives per game. We *should* be leading total stats due to the sheer number of drives. This is also why in my OP I was ignoring things like “total yards” because the stat is completely irrelevant in football

 

[WreckinGT]

We are nearly 100% in agreement we’d prefer to have our current offense without so many turnovers. LOL.

Even if we got rid of turnovers completely, our offense still needs to improve. That would probably take it from really bad to below average though.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Even if we got rid of turnovers completely, our offense still needs to improve. That would probably take it from really bad to below average though.

If we had no turnovers, you think our offense would be below average? We’d probably be averaging around 500-550 yards per game and 30+ points per game. I get your disgust with our turnovers and penalties, but let’s not be irrationally negative.

 

[WreckinGT]

If we had no turnovers, you think our offense would be below average? We’d probably be averaging around 500-550 yards per game and 30+ points per game. I get your disgust with our turnovers and penalties, but let’s not be irrationally negative.

Our QB is completing less than 50% of his passes the last two weeks. We are near the bottom in FBS in red zone conversions and TD conversions. We have scored twice in our last 16 2nd half possessions. We aren’t the well oiled scoring machine that you seem to think we are. Our awful scoring offense can’t simply be blamed on turnovers that we are going to fix any day now.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Our QB is completing less than 50% of his passes the last two weeks. We are near the bottom in FBS in red zone conversions and TD conversions. We have scored twice in our last 16 2nd half possessions. We aren’t the well oiled scoring machine that you seem to think we are. Our awful scoring offense can’t simply be blamed on turnovers that we are going to fix any day now.

Stop making things up.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Stop making things up.

What is he making up?

Edit: 50% completion vs UCF but under 50% for the last two games collectively.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

What is he making up?

What is he not making up? I never said our offense was a well oiled machine. If you take away our turnovers and penalties and think our offense would still be below average, you need to look at what average college offenses look like right now. The average offense is 410 yards per game right now. The average scoring is 29.5. I get his frustration, but it’s not an excuse to be irrationally negative.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

What is he not making up? I never said our offense was a well oiled machine. If you take away our turnovers and penalties and think our offense would still be below average, you need to look at what average college offenses look like right now. The average offense is 410 yards per game right now. The average scoring is 29.5. I get his frustration, but it’s not an excuse to be irrationally negative.

Gotcha. I was referring to the stats. He was right about those unfortunately.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Gotcha. I was referring to the stats. He was right about those unfortunately.

No, he’s wrong. He said if you could wipe away our turnovers, we’d still be a below average offense. We’re already above average in yardage. So we’d even be farther above average. So the question then is if we had no turnovers, would we be scoring more than 29.5 points a game. When we’re scoring 20 while having 5 turnovers,I don’t see how you look at these numbers and still say no. He’s irrationally negative. The points per possession predict otherwise too. Kind of weird to be having these discussions with our own fans.

 

[Scubapro]

Partial list of teams behind us in total offense per game this year:

Alabama
Notre Dame
LSU
Louisville
Texas Tech
Georgia
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Auburn
There are 46 more......and only 72 FBS teams have played. We are 19th.

At least a third of the posters on this board need to stop showing their ignorance. The "play calling" complainers the worst. I've listened to that stuff from fans of all teams for 40 years, and every time I hear it I think how stupid it sounds. As if there is some play that is magically going to score a touchdown if the OC would just call it. Such complaints show a complete lack of understanding of the complexities of college football.

Now take that list and see how many points they scored...thats what matters. AND yes ... putting your FRESHMAN QB in a play that requires multiple pass reads is a bad idea....dont belive me? How many INTs do we have?

 

[slugboy]

Even if we got rid of turnovers completely, our offense still needs to improve. That would probably take it from really bad to below average though.

That seems like something worth thinking about. With 8 interceptions, Sims’ passer rating is at 108, which ain’t great. If you take the interceptions out and just turn them into incompletions, it goes up to 124, which is still well below average. In the NCAA’s a QBR of 140 is respectable, and 150 or above is getting pretty good.
Trevor Lawrence leads the NCAA with a QBR of 234.

		Pass
Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Jeff Sims	55	99	55.6	695	7.0	4.0	3	8	108.4
2	Jordan Yates	2	4	50.0	4	1.0	1.0	0	0	58.4

[thead] [/thead]


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2020.


Here are the overall offensive stats. We’re giving up 4 turnovers per game and getting two back, for a net of 2 in the wrong direction. Conservatively, I might value a turnover at a 2-point swing. If that was the case, then we’d be scoring 8 more points per game, and we’re currently averaging 19 per game. That would put us at 27 points per game, which is pretty darn good and above average.

A more statistical view of the value of a turnover is in this 5 Factors write up at Football Study Hall. It values a turnover at a 5 point swing each (some points for you, some points your opponent doesn’t score. Just being even with our competition brings us a positive 10 point swing. If you think half of that is on offense, we’d be at 24 points. Eliminating them entirely would have us around 29 points, if half was on offense. Eliminating the turnovers entirely would also take about 10 points off of our opponent’s scores.

So, if we eliminate the turnovers entirely, do we win against UCF? We probably still lose by less than a touchdown. But we’d be 2-1 right now, and would have beaten Syracuse by about a field goal.

Do the stats justify a change in our play calling? To me, it looks like they do—more running, more “safe” passes”, finding a way to maintain our yards per play and keep control of the ball.

		Pass					Rush				Tota			Firs				Pena		Turn
Split	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	Pass	Rush	Pen	Tot	No.	Yds	Fum	Int	Tot
Offense	3	19.0	34.7	54.8	233.0	1.0	45.3	221.0	4.9	1.7	80.0	454.0	5.7	10.3	12.3	0.7	23.3	10.7	77.7	1.3	2.7	4.0
Defense	3	21.0	36.7	57.3	269.7	2.3	42.3	171.7	4.1	1.7	79.0	441.3	5.6	11.0	10.0	1.0	22.0	7.7	63.7	1.0	1.0	2.0
Difference		-2.0	-2.0	-2.5	-36.7	-1.3	+3.0	+49.3	+0.8	0.0	+1.0	+12.7	+0.1	-0.7	+2.3	-0.3	+1.3	+3.0	+14.0	+0.3	+1.7	+2.0

[thead] [/thead]

I recommend the 5 Factors article as a good read. Field goals are basically a failure (a lesser one) because you’re leaving too many points on the table.

Also, Sims has a 55% completion percentage, which is high for us. It’s not going to be in the top tier of the ACC, but it’s moving in the right direction. Move that up a notch and we’re in good shape.

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2020.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

No, he’s wrong. He said if you could wipe away our turnovers, we’d still be a below average offense. We’re already above average in yardage. So we’d even be farther above average. So the question then is if we had no turnovers, would we be scoring more than 29.5 points a game. When we’re scoring 20 while having 5 turnovers,I don’t see how you look at these numbers and still say no. He’s irrationally negative. The points per possession predict otherwise too. Kind of weird to be having these discussions with our own fans.

Turnovers are not the only reason we are not completing drives and scoring. I mark a good bit of that up to bad play calling.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Turnovers are not the only reason we are not completing drives and scoring. I mark a good bit of that up to bad play calling.

You’re right, it’s not. We have a lot of work to do. But if we clean up most of our turnovers and most of our penalties, we are not a bad team. Big if, but IIWII. We know what we need to work on.

 

[Scubapro]

But that’s the whole point. The play calling, offensive execution, and so on isn’t the problem. Turnovers is the singular problem right now (with a slight assist to penalties). If we have a 0-2 turnover game, we’re going to put up 500 yards and 30+ points. I’m hoping we do it against Louisville.

Play calling has much to do with it and what I mean is putting our young QB in a bad spot. Cuse was telling their ends and tackles to run straight up field in a bull type rush to disrupt timing of the QB. If I can spot that then Patenaude can certainly see it. in that situation the last thing you want is a long developing pass play...look at the interceptions...what was happening in most of them?
Long developing pass plays. This is what I mean by play calling. Their bull rush is also why we broke off some big runs bc the end lost contain by rushing up the field or the tackle left a large void.
Play calling...dont ask a freshman to make senior reads and decisions.

 

[Milwaukee]

This gives me hope. Can’t wait to watch next year’s bad offense, then in 2022 a really mediocre offense & finally the 2023 coup de gras- unveiling of the middle of the road mediocre offense. We’re going to be ecstatic!

You’re laughing but that’s literally the plan that the athletic department signed on for. This is chess gentlemen, not checkers. Those with no foresight are the ones bitching like idiots, 4 or 5 of them here that keep posting in every thread only when we lose .

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Also, Sims has a 55% completion percentage, which is high for us. It’s not going to be in the top tier of the ACC, but it’s moving in the right direction. Move that up a notch and we’re in good shape.

Like many Freshman, he comes and goes. He was 3/14 In the first half Saturday, and Syracuse had 3 completions of our passes LOL. In the second half he was 10 of 14 (72%). As others have mentioned, we should be calling plays which play to his youth and skill set. The more we do, the better we can be. It’s okay to pull the ball down and run. It’s okay to throw the ball away. It’s okay to punt. Sometimes it’s a good defense over there or sometimes the right defensive call.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

No, he’s wrong. He said if you could wipe away our turnovers, we’d still be a below average offense. We’re already above average in yardage. So we’d even be farther above average. So the question then is if we had no turnovers, would we be scoring more than 29.5 points a game. When we’re scoring 20 while having 5 turnovers,I don’t see how you look at these numbers and still say no. He’s irrationally negative. The points per possession predict otherwise too. Kind of weird to be having these discussions with our own fans.

" Our QB is completing less than 50% of his passes the last two weeks. We are near the bottom in FBS in red zone conversions and TD conversions. We have scored twice in our last 16 2nd half possessions. "

These are all factually correct.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

" Our QB is completing less than 50% of his passes the last two weeks. We are near the bottom in FBS in red zone conversions and TD conversions. We have scored twice in our last 16 2nd half possessions. "

These are all factually correct.

The point of the thread was that if we clean up turnovers we can be a good team. He offered a bunch of data that are derivations of throwing 10 interceptions, to arrive at a conclusion that we suck even if we clean up turnovers. If we clean up turnovers, all the data you just quoted materially change.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

You’re laughing but that’s literally the plan that the athletic department signed on for. This is chess gentlemen, not checkers. Those with no foresight are the ones bitching like idiots, 4 or 5 of them here that keep posting in every thread only when we lose .

It's not often I agree wholeheartedly with @Milwaukee but this is spot on. We aren't a good team right now, but I don't think the people in charge were expecting us to be one yet. We should have beaten Syracuse, but we are barely into our second year under completely new staff and system. This is going to take time.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

The point of the thread was that if we clean up turnovers we can be a good team. He offered a bunch of data that are derivations of throwing 10 interceptions, to arrive at a conclusion that we suck even if we clean up turnovers. If we clean up turnovers, all the data you just quoted materially change.

If is a big word. Lots of things would be different if... We do have the turnovers so the data is factually correct. I agree that things aren't as bad as they seem, but they aren't good right now either. We are most likely at least another year away from being decent again.