Season Predictions

[sidewalkGTfan]

6-7 regular season wins. We're slow starters usually, and we have a new defense, and a good chance to lose a game in Pitt or USF. I hope I'm underestimating us.

Just curious, why do you say this? Are you talking from an offensive standpoint? Are you talking wins and losses?

 

[slugboy]

Just curious, why do you say this? Are you talking from an offensive standpoint? Are you talking wins and losses?

Typically offense. One of the quotes, I think from CPJ, is "when the leaves start turning, the option starts churning". My own recollection is that our timing and decision making gets better as the season goes along--if have enough depth to withstand injuries, especially on the offensive line, or enough luck to avoid critical injuries.

UT looked horrible against us last year in game 1, but that seems like it may have been mostly UT. When else did we run roughshod over a team like that last year?

I'm assuming we'll start slow on defense this year too. Yes, practice reports have been good, but those aren't games. This is a new defense, and our starters haven't had 2 years of reps in the system. I don't think they've had enough time for their reactions to be second nature to them. App State improved a lot after the first year or two (from the stats I saw), but they didn't improve drastically on game #1.

 

[orientalnc]

Typically offense. One of the quotes, I think from CPJ, is "when the leaves start turning, the option starts churning". My own recollection is that our timing and decision making gets better as the season goes along--if have enough depth to withstand injuries, especially on the offensive line, or enough luck to avoid critical injuries.

UT looked horrible against us last year in game 1, but that seems like it may have been mostly UT. When else did we run roughshod over a team like that last year?

I'm assuming we'll start slow on defense this year too. Yes, practice reports have been good, but those aren't games. This is a new defense, and our starters haven't had 2 years of reps in the system. I don't think they've had enough time for their reactions to be second nature to them. App State improved a lot after the first year or two (from the stats I saw), but they didn't improve drastically on game #1.

Admittedly, I had to look this up. Total yards in our first six games last year:

UT 655
Jax 322
Pitt 484
UNC 456
Miami 281
Wake 495

We were pretty bad against Jax, but what is it about the slow start by our offense?

The second half of the season we really peaked just in time for our bowl game:

Clemson 230
UVA 399
VT 401
Duke 359
uga 226

The quality of the competition had a lot to do with our success, or lack of same, last year. But, we did not get off to a slow start on offense.

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

Admittedly, I had to look this up. Total yards in our first six games last year:

UT 655
Jax 322
Pitt 484
UNC 456
Miami 281
Wake 495

We were pretty bad against Jax, but what is it about the slow start by our offense?

The second half of the season we really peaked just in time for our bowl game:

Clemson 230
UVA 399
VT 401
Duke 359
uga 226

The quality of the competition had a lot to do with our success, or lack of same, last year. But, we did not get off to a slow start on offense.

It's hard to really know if we "start slow" on offense every year and as you say, a lot of it has to do with the competition level, but I think this is more of a myth than actual reality...JMO

 

[AE 87]

Typically offense. One of the quotes, I think from CPJ, is "when the leaves start turning, the option starts churning". My own recollection is that our timing and decision making gets better as the season goes along--if have enough depth to withstand injuries, especially on the offensive line, or enough luck to avoid critical injuries.

UT looked horrible against us last year in game 1, but that seems like it may have been mostly UT. When else did we run roughshod over a team like that last year?

I'm assuming we'll start slow on defense this year too. Yes, practice reports have been good, but those aren't games. This is a new defense, and our starters haven't had 2 years of reps in the system. I don't think they've had enough time for their reactions to be second nature to them. App State improved a lot after the first year or two (from the stats I saw), but they didn't improve drastically on game #1.

We'll see about slow start on D.

We have to remember that 2014 was AppSt's first year in FBS.

From the 2nd half of 2014 thru the end of 2017 they averaged allowing less than 20 pts/game.

 

[BCJacket]

Great post, thanks for sharing and I see a similar quiet optimism from CPJ this year. Hopefully it will translate to a strong team.

Agree that UGA will take a step back on D, the SEC East will be better, and that their schedule setup perfect for them a year ago and it won’t be as easy this year. Their 2017 schedule was a gift from the football gods. Smh. But Fromm played really well as a true freshman. He was top ten in passing efficiency and their offense really hit their stride mid season. Their backs will be solid, their oline is strong, their receivers are good, and play action will be there again. Fromm can hit back shoulders and isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket. Unfortunately I think UGA will be good on offense this year. How good I don’t know, but I’m not getting my hopes up that they’ll be down.

Source? Brought this up to an old friend whose brother was on the UGA staff, and he said "no way." And it seems he is right from all the efficiency measures I could find.

I got that from ESPN 2017 Stats. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ very open to the possibility they are wrong. Be interested to see a source where he was statistically a top 10 QB.

Not saying he's a bad QB. Just more average than great last year. True that was as a Freshman. But also, they were "ahead in the count" so-to-speak a lot of the time when he was passing. I doubt he'll get as much of a cushion from the running game this year. Breakout or sophomore slump, this year I don't know.

 

[iceeater1969]

I got that from ESPN 2017 Stats. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ very open to the possibility they are wrong. Be interested to see a source where he was statistically a top 10 QB.

Not saying he's a bad QB. Just more average than great last year. True that was as a Freshman. But also, they were "ahead in the count" so-to-speak a lot of the time when he was passing. I doubt he'll get as much of a cushion from the running game this year. Breakout or sophomore slump, this year I don't know.


View attachment 3996

Thanks for number facts.
I just watched replay of uga verses ou. He made a great scramble . He Kept head up and eyes down field and made a quick throw hutting Michel on the run.

I know he won't have backs that passed on draft to try to win NC. So we will have lots if film in him . I hope they melt down just before we play them.

 

[BCJacket]

I got that from ESPN 2017 Stats. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ very open to the possibility they are wrong. Be interested to see a source where he was statistically a top 10 QB.

Not saying he's a bad QB. Just more average than great last year. True that was as a Freshman. But also, they were "ahead in the count" so-to-speak a lot of the time when he was passing. I doubt he'll get as much of a cushion from the running game this year. Breakout or sophomore slump, this year I don't know.


View attachment 3996

Went to Sports-reference.com and ran my own calculations on the NCAA Passer Efficiency calculation [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ]. ESPN's # appears to be correct.

 

[incognito]

Rating is right according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

 

[BCJacket]

Went to Sports-reference.com and ran my own calculations on the NCAA Passer Efficiency calculation [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ]. ESPN's # appears to be correct.

Found the issue, has to do with how you filter out who's "qualified" Lots of people above him on ESPNs list with <10 attempts. Among regular starters he was much higher on the list. So, I was partly wrong. Still don't think he's that great, but I'm biased. THWG amirite?

 

[UpperNorth]

I hope you are correct, but I think I am OK with this pick.

Went to Sports-reference.com and ran my own calculations on the NCAA Passer Efficiency calculation [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ]. ESPN's # appears to be correct.

I found this on ncaa.com https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/2018/individual/8

I don’t see how a quarterback with a 62% completion percentage and 24/7 TD/Int ratio is ranked 119. I noticed that a wide receiver who went 2 for 2 passing is ahead of Fromm on that list so maybe it doesn’t have a minimum attempt filter? Either way, I don’t think you’re bashing Fromm, you just feel like he benefited from some factors last year and is closer to average than great. I actually feel like he’s a special quarterback (unfortunately) but you never know how things will pan out. He could breakout or slump this year like you said.

 

[UpperNorth]

Found the issue, has to do with how you filter out who's "qualified" Lots of people above him on ESPNs list with <10 attempts. Among regular starters he was much higher on the list. So, I was partly wrong. Still don't think he's that great, but I'm biased. THWG amirite?

THWG ALL. DAY. LONG.

 

[sgreer]

Acorn St W
USF W - The Bulls are weak in the middle of their DL. That is the key spot for defending the TO. Their offense could be trouble for us.
Pitt W
Clemson L - not close. I hope we do not suffer too many physical or emotional injuries.
BG W
UL W - Closer than we might want
Duke W - Why are the Dookies so much trouble for us?
VT L - The VT offense is loaded.
UNC W
Miami L - Mark Richt knows how to beat us when he's got the horses. He does this year.
UVA W
UGA L - I think the uga intangibles at home are way over the top positive after losing to us 2x in a row at home.

I am predicting 8-4 with my "subjective" standard deviation calculated at 2.0.

I hope the fact that Tech has lost 9 in a row to uga at BDS helps the Jackets next season!

 

[CuseJacket]

This thread needed a poll. Time to vote.

 

[Jmonty71]

Can go anywhere from 5-7 and 9-3. Really depends on how we do in the games that are winnable. UNC, Duke, VT, Louisville and Miami are all games that will be close. I think Clemson will be the toughest team we play. UGag? May...just may throw the upset. This also means we don't come out flat against teams like USF, Alcorn, UVA and Bowling Green. Because, if we sleep on some of these teams, we'll have a rude awakening. But here are my realistic expectations.

Alcorn State - Win and big win
South Florida - Win, but not as much as we may think
Pitt - Win... Should win. Pitt is awful
Clemson - Lose.. Just hope we keep it respectful
Bowling Green - Win... Another big win
Louisville - Win... Louisville is depleted.. However; if we come out flat.. We lose
Duke - Lose... We just cannot seem to beat them
Virgina Tech - Lose... I think the VT magic does not happen
North Carolina - Win... I think we manage to scrape by UNC, but barely
Miami - Lose I think Duh U beats us... We make too many mistakes against UM
Virgina W - Win UVA and Pitt are both bad.
Georgia W - Lose... Would love to say Win and get proved wrong.

So, 7-5 overall.

 

[RamblinCharger]

I think we lose close games to Clemson and UGA because their defenses will shut us down for the most part. I think we also lose a game we shouldn't (Duke, UVA, UNC), and lose one of VT, Miami, or Louisville, and win the rest. 8-4, and win a solid bowl game win to get to 9-4. I think it will be a fun season. Go Jackets!