I was thinking of our roster the last few years in terms of how many established players we had vs our results.
In 2017-18, we had Lammers as an established player, and Okogie had a monster season. Alvarado and Wright were brand new. Okogie was our big scorer, but not enough on his own and we only won 13 games.
In 2018-19, we lost Lammers and Okogie, but got Banks. Aside from Banks, the team was raw. No one scored much, and we won 14 games.
In 2019-20, Devoe, Wright, and Alvarado were seasoned, and were our scoring leaders. We still had Banks, and we still looked at him as the anchor of the team. Usher and Parham came over that season, and Usher played the back half. We won 17 with no ACC tournament. Alvarado only played 24 games. We had three established players, and were a bubble team. If we’d been healthier at the beginning of the season and not under NCAA penalties, we’d have been a tourney team.
Last year, we stayed pretty healthy (considering), and won 17 games (17-9) in a shortened season. We lacked experienced depth at center, and had to work around that. Usher stepped up, and we had four established players—Usher, Devoe, Alvarado, and Wright. We shifted the roster and played Usher at the 4 and Wright at the 5. We got old at a lot of positions, but were young at a couple and had to cover.
This upcoming season, we lose our #1 and #2 players in terms of minutes played and points per game with Alvarado and Wright going pro. In minutes played, 3 through 7 are Devoe, Usher, Parham, Moore, and Sturdivant. So the good news is we kind of got old and stayed old. Bad news is that we lost our two leading players. Good news (again) is that we had one of the higher ranked recruiting classes we’ve seen in years.
2019-20 had some issues with injuries and depth. This upcoming season, we should have more depth. We especially have depth at 2-3-4.
Next season still looks foggy to me. We have Smith and Sturdivant at PG. We’ll need some points and really good distribution from that position and the 2-3. I think we’ll see a lot of a Sturdivant-Devoe-Parham-Usher-Howard/Saba lineup and maybe a small-ball lineup with Khalid or Meka if Howard and Saba are still growing into the 5. If Sturdivant or Smith grow into the PG position, then we’re in great shape, but I’d guess we’ll share some of the load to Parham and Devoe.
Going back, last year started the season looking strong 1-4 (Alvarado,Devoe,Usher,Wright) and needed a new player to grow into the 5. That didn’t happen, so we put Parham into the 3 and shifted Usher and Wright to the 4 and 5. This year, we’re filling in the 1 and 5 and have a lot of depth 2-4. While we have more depth, this is a bigger stretch than we had after Banks left. It’s more like what we had when Lammers and Okogie left.
Next year could be a really good season, but a couple of things from this list would need to happen:
- One or more of the new players (Kelly, Moore, Smith, Hill, Coleman) has a good 3 point % and provides an outside threat to compliment Devoe
- Meka fills in where Wright left off
- Howard or Saba adjust to the pace and physicality of P6 basketball and become a solid starter at the 5. (I think this can happen)
- Either Sturdivant or Smith picks up where Jose left off at PG, or the coaches tweak the offense to shoulder some of the ball distribution to multiple players. I think we probably give Smith and Sturdivant a little time to grow into the role this year.
Howard and Saba have had a year here to train and learn and grow. One or both of them have a shot to be solid this year. It’s still a question mark for me, but there should be progression from last year.
PG is a bigger question mark for me. It’s hard to take over from a four year starter. We could use some luck or magic there.
