Prognostication after Virginia Tech

forensicbuzz

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It's Thursday after the big win against VPI in Blacksburg. I've been enjoying the victory (unfortunately I don't work with any VPI grads any more). We're going into a bye week, and I thought it's a good time to reflect on what we've done to-date and what we need to do to get where we want us to be. Here's my summary of what I've seen and what I expect.

Our season so far has been against what appears to be a strong FCS team in Wofford, followed by a pumped up Tulane team opening a new stadium, then a Georgia Southern team, who we've never played, out to prove they're the real deal, and finally a Virginia Tech team that always plays well at home. Obviously, we won each game, but none in resounding fashion. In my opinion, each team we have played has been a progressively tougher opponent, and we've done what it has taken to win each game. We've also given out opponents reason to think they could play with us each game.

Our performance thus far has been one of fits and starts. In each game we've shown dominance on the offensive side of the ball, but we've also shown we can be completely shut down. I think some of this is youth at QB and other key positions, but it's also about execution from the experienced guys. To me, it's not a talent thing, it's a mental thing and a coaching thing. If we don't have the physical skills to do what the coaches are asking us to do, we need to either get players on the field who can or alter our scheme to allow the players we have to be successful. This is an underlying tenant of management that anyone on this board who has ever had managerial duties will be able to relate to.

Enough with the pretense, here are my thoughts:

1. We really don't know what we are yet. Are we good? Are we bad? Somewhere in the middle? I don't think anyone can answer that question yet. We are young at some key positions, thin at some key positions, but in the end, we've been able to get done what must get done to win. There is something important about being able to say that. We haven't always been able to say that.

2. Our competition appears to have gotten better each week. If we play against Tulane like we did against Wofford, we lose to Tulane. If we play Georgia Southern like we played against Tulane, we lose to Georgia Southern. If we play against VPI like we did against GSU, we lose to VPI. I can't tell is this is because we're improving each week and becoming more comfortable in our own skin or if we're simply playing to the level of our competition. Either can be an answer.

I'd rather believe we're improving each week and that we will continue to improve for each game. To me, that question remains to be answered.

3. Is our competition for the first 4 games good or did we just scrape by some pretty bad teams. Tulane lost to Tulsa and Duke, beating a directional LA team; and VPI lost to ECU, but beat tOSU. What does that mean? At this point, I think this is also an unaswered question. tOSU is without their starting QB, but they should have the talent on that team to compete with anyone in the Nation with their back-up QB. ECU appears to be a pretty good team, and the game came down to the wire.

4. During the first 4 games, I saw missed tackles, blown coverages, missed assignments, piss-poor blocking, bad reads, bad throws...bad decisions all around. That's part of a young team growing up, but we're not young everywhere, and there are instances where these lapses are coming from upperclassment that are in their 5th year in the program. As a player, I was always taught that a physical error is correctable, but that a metal error is unacceptable because I should always know what to do in a given situation. That's a combination of my game knowledge and the coaches coaching properly. I have seen an awful lot of metal mistakes these first 4 games.

5. During the first 4 games I have seen a young QB start to grow up. Some of the mistakes JT was making in the earlier games were corrected for the latter games. To me, he has exhibited a tremendous football IQ, adjusting to what the defense is giving him and a tremendous athletic ability. He is tough and fearless. There was much talk about his ability to stay healthy over the course of the season. From what I've seen so far, JT hasn't backed down from contact and when he has gotten crushed, he's popped up and went back for more. Can he maintain that through the season? Don't know, but I can't wait to find out.

6. Our receiving corps has really impressed me. This includes the AB's as well as the WR's. Not only have I not seen a true drop, but I've seen some spectacular catches. The pass down the sideline to Waller is first to mind. I thought JT was throwing that ball away, but DW went up and pulled in down, maintaining contact with the playing field before going out. Wow! That was impressive.

7. I hate the bend-don't-break philosophy on defense. I want an aggressive defense that takes the game to the offense. I think that's what VPI does, and we could be a much better team with an attacking defense. I've been disappointed with our defensive efforts so far. We shouldn't be giving up the points we have in the first 4 games, and this scares me for the remaining games we have. I hope that CTR has a solid plan that words. I hate seeing the CB's giving 10-12 yard cushions and our opponents have converted way too many 3rd and longs.

Bottom line is I don't know what to really think about this team, both offensively and defensively. Somehow I think that we won't be shut down on offense, but I'm not really sure how much we've really been tested yet. Likewise, I'm not sure our defense is capable of keeping our opponents out of the endzone or getting the ball back for our offense.

After 4 games, I'm still as unsure as preseason. I think the next 4 games will be the true test for this team. If we're 4-4 or 8-0, we'll know what we have. If we're 6-2, it'll still be a question. As has been said many times this past week, we need to take this season one game at a time and reassess each week. Personally, I think Miami is a much different team than VPI, so I am very interested (and apprehensive) to see how we perform. I am optimistic, but there's always a lingering doubt.

If we get to game 9 with an 8-0 record, I think the worst we'll do is go to the Orange Bowl.
 

gtg936g

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I think we are improving. We have a team with character that believes in each other. Our record could not be any better at this point than it is currently. Miami is going to be really tough for us to beat because they have speed at the skill positions, but I wouldn't swap our team or coaches for theirs.
 

Boomergump

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Thanks Forensic, there was some good stuff in there. Personally, I think we are going to struggle this year. I think most games are going to be that way. I also think we are going to win more than our share. By now, you guys are aware of the metaphors I like to use. I see GT FB 2014 as being like one of those relief pitchers, in the closer's role, who used to drive Earl Weaver (Orioles manager in years gone by) to smoke half a pack in the ninth inning. You know what I am talking about? He gets out of most of the innings alive (preserving the win), but manages to walk a couple batters, throw a wild pitch, and make it really difficult on himself in the process. He looks electric and all that, but has these nagging deficiencies that keep everybody on the edge of their seat.

Have we played better every game as you suggest? I am not so sure. Possibly in areas, but we have been our own worst enemy in several different ways each game too. I guess my favorite characteristic of this team is that we have overcome straight bald-a$$ bad luck several times already. That first TD by Tulane was probably a pick, and certainly a break up, if Nealy doesn't deflect the ball. That loose fumble scoop and score by VT after Milton let the recovery get away was like a shot to the cajones right after we had taken the lead. We have missed chippy FGs. We have whiffed on pass deflections multiple times resulting in huge plays for the opposition. We have screwed ourselves with ridiculous penalties after getting teams stopped( GSU, VT).

This should be fun for the rest of the fall, but I feel sure it ain't gonna be relaxin.

One thing I appreciate you mentioning is the lack of drops coming out of the passing game. Remember a few short years ago how frustrating it was to watch all the drops? The only one I can remember this year was Smelter on a back shoulder lob vs VT a couple days ago. We have come a long way in this area.
 

bravejason

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Offensively, the question I have is can the apparent emergence of a legitimate passing game be maintained? If the pass protection continues to show promise and if Thomas, Smelter et al can continue to make plays in passing game, then the offense should be as good as usual. In the ground game we're seeing plays that we haven't seen in a long time (e.g., speed option). I hope that means that the offense will have more tools at its disposal to reduce the ability of opposing defenses to cause the offense to stall out. How opposing DC deal with Thomas will be an interesting question. If I were them, I would look to keep him bottled up by defending the keep on the option. The QB-AB pitch relationship has been difficult to maintain and Thomas doesnt look particulaly smooth pitching the ball. I'd look to exploit that with the hopes of generating turnovers.

Defensively, I have my concerns. I think the team is vulnerable to a power running game and the pass rush remains a unicorn. We know that the option game is problematic too. Obviously, that is an undesirable state of affairs and I think it leaves the team vulnerable to the classic offensive strategy of run, run, run, play action pass. For the pass-happy offenses, I would expect a lot of dink-and-dunk to draw the corners in tight and force the linebackers to play in coverage followed by a long pass that takes advantage of the minimal pass rush and drawn in pass defenders. The opponents to date ran their usual stuff either for lack of knowledge or ability to do otherwise. At four games in, the opposing OC ought to have seen enough to develop a game plan tailored to the GT defensive weaknesses.
 

AlabamaBuzz

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Offense will probably win some we should not win, but defense will probably allow us to lose 1 or 2 that we should not lose. That is my very simple prediction.

I still think our best record is 8-4, with 6-6 still a remote possibility. Hopefully, we will do better than I think, since I did not think we could win in B-burg. You cannot be as weak as we seem to be in our front 7 on D (combining both talent and depth) and expect to play in the Orange Bowl. If we do, some coaches need to receive some major accolades.......
 

00Burdell

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My short version of the rest of the season is that each of our remaining 8 opponents is capable of whoopin our butt.

I'd say we are good enough to stop 3 of them from doing it, 3 could go either way and 2 ... well, can't win 'em all.

I think that means we can win 8 or 9 games or 6 or 7 depending on how determined we are not to lose when we shouldn't and win when we aren't supposed to.
 

txsting

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I think, simply, we will win the games where we hold the opponent under 30 points.

Last year we put up at least 30 on Miami, Clemson, and UGA, and took an 0-fer. We have evidence now that we are better on offense, look at our 6.1 ypp against VT. Realize that is our best production against them in years.
 

takethepoints

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As I've said before, we remind me a lot of Navy. Good on O, questionable on D, leading to a lot of games that are just too exciting. I hope we get over that but it is way too early to tell if we will. If we continue incremental improvement, we'll do quite well this year, barring a spate of injuries. The game with da U should tell us a lot; no doubt they'll be trying to corral JT, as was said above. Then we'll see what happens. Good reads and the Thugs will pay, big time; the easiest way for Tech to beat you silly is by toss sweeps and options where the AB beats the D.

I think the key to the season, as usual, is OL blocking and the dive. So far we've been doing well there. If we can get Laskey going for 90 - 100 ypg against the weaker Ds we'll face for the rest of the season (I don't care where they're ranked; VT was probably the most talented D we'll face all year), then opposing DCs will be wailing and gnashing their teeth directly.
 

GT Man

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Even at 4-0 it's nice to see that the team still isn't happy. They clearly want to get better, and they have a desire to prove themselves. They've got some issues to iron out but they have the right attitude.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Good job forensic, thanks.

Before the season, I said we wouldn't know what we have until after the Miami game. And I still feel that to a certain extent. We don't know what VT really is - beats OSU and loses to ECU. Before the season I felt that we would easily beat VT because of their fall off in talent (it's in the stars) and when the beat OSU the emergence of a VT offense (rarer than a unicorn LMAO) scared me.

We do know that we have a good team - should win 6-9 games as others have said. But do we have a really good team in the making? Like 10 win good? We'll have a better gauge of that after we play Miami and then Duke. I am really looking forward to watching the Miami/Duke game to see the relative strengths and weaknesses of each. And then being able to compare each to us when we play.
 

Animal02

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My short version of the rest of the season is that each of our remaining 8 opponents is capable of whoopin our butt.

I'd say we are good enough to stop 3 of them from doing it, 3 could go either way and 2 ... well, can't win 'em all.

I think that means we can win 8 or 9 games or 6 or 7 depending on how determined we are not to lose when we shouldn't and win when we aren't supposed to.

Of our our remaining 8 opponents....we are capable of winning in each game. Will we.....probably not......the difference between a 9-3 team and one that play for a NC is a few lucky bounces (Auburn last year).
Unfortunately, I think we will need to run the table on lucky bounces instead of just a couple of games. I will remain hopeful and optimistic throughout the season.
 

awbuzz

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Thankfully GSU handled App St last night and the game was really never in question.

In somethings i expect more of the same that GT fans have become accustomed - Being good enough to break our heart in some games and pulling a rabbit out the hat in others (GSU and VPI this year).

Biggest concern is the D. Can they gel and stop the run or 3rd and long? If we can have the D move into the top 60 in 3rd down conversion percentage we do well. If we remain out of the top 100 in that category we're playing fire and will get burned.

Look forward to winning on the 4th!
 

Vespid

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One thing I think we know for sure, we have elite talent and improving execution at the most important and outcome influencing position on the field...QB. With that, we will be in the game with a chance to win at the end more often than not. Imho
 

collegeballfan

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Great discussion. Thanks forensic.

My 2 cents: I really believe that this team is a year away from being a Really Good Team. Next season the QB & OL should be much better if they remain relatively injury free.
The defense should be better next season with the young DB's having a year in the bank.

This season? In early August I listed us, with a full glass of kool-aid in hand, at 7 wins, 2 losses and 3 to close to call. VT was one of the "to close" teams and we won that game.
That puts us in the 8 win column. That is a lot for this team.

I would agree with Coach, the QB is simply going to get better and better. This will be one of the more interesting GT seasons in many years just because we get to watch
the young JT mature in front of our eyes. He is going to need a broad set of shoulders.
 

Animal02

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Great discussion. Thanks forensic.

My 2 cents: I really believe that this team is a year away from being a Really Good Team. Next season the QB & OL should be much better if they remain relatively injury free.
The defense should be better next season with the young DB's having a year in the bank.

This season? In early August I listed us, with a full glass of kool-aid in hand, at 7 wins, 2 losses and 3 to close to call. VT was one of the "to close" teams and we won that game.
That puts us in the 8 win column. That is a lot for this team.

I would agree with Coach, the QB is simply going to get better and better. This will be one of the more interesting GT seasons in many years just because we get to watch
the young JT mature in front of our eyes. He is going to need a broad set of shoulders.

I have said since before the start we would be minimum 8 wins, 9 possible, 10+ with we get all the bouncing balls our way. The schedule this year really aligned in our favor.......none of our problem teams getting an extra week, and no Thursday night game to muck up the rhythm of the season. Next year, NCST is replaced by FSU (though who knows if Winston will still be there) ND also appear on the schedule. Definitely a step up wrt SoS.
 

Mack

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Thanks Forensic, there was some good stuff in there. Personally, I think we are going to struggle this year. I think most games are going to be that way. I also think we are going to win more than our share. By now, you guys are aware of the metaphors I like to use. I see GT FB 2014 as being like one of those relief pitchers, in the closer's role, who used to drive Earl Weaver (Orioles manager in years gone by) to smoke half a pack in the ninth inning. You know what I am talking about? He gets out of most of the innings alive (preserving the win), but manages to walk a couple batters, throw a wild pitch, and make it really difficult on himself in the process. He looks electric and all that, but has these nagging deficiencies that keep everybody on the edge of their seat.

Have we played better every game as you suggest? I am not so sure. Possibly in areas, but we have been our own worst enemy in several different ways each game too. I guess my favorite characteristic of this team is that we have overcome straight bald-a$$ bad luck several times already. That first TD by Tulane was probably a pick, and certainly a break up, if Nealy doesn't deflect the ball. That loose fumble scoop and score by VT after Milton let the recovery get away was like a shot to the cajones right after we had taken the lead. We have missed chippy FGs. We have whiffed on pass deflections multiple times resulting in huge plays for the opposition. We have screwed ourselves with ridiculous penalties after getting teams stopped( GSU, VT).

This should be fun for the rest of the fall, but I feel sure it ain't gonna be relaxin.

One thing I appreciate you mentioning is the lack of drops coming out of the passing game. Remember a few short years ago how frustrating it was to watch all the drops? The only one I can remember this year was Smelter on a back shoulder lob vs VT a couple days ago. We have come a long way in this area.
 

Mack

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I agree no big blowouts th is yr and what looks like weak pass rush and coverage ..Most games are fairly even.....
 

Cheesehead Jacket

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I still see 7 wins. I know everyone thinks we " own " Duke. I'm not so sure. If they are healthy , especially at the QB position, they have enough talent now to beat us. And they will be motivated. IMO, with this team being so young, we don't have any sure wins the rest of the year. And I hope the team is thinking the same way.
Next year should be a step up for sure, barring serious injuries. But I still think 7-5 plus a bowl will be the end result this year. ( I hope , I'm surprised though ! )
 

GTJake

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I agree that, based on who we've played it is still too early to make any conclusions about the remainder of the season.
I think this team has great chemistry so if we keep an improving trend with our young defense and JT continues to improve, especially throwing the ball, I could see us competing for a spot in the ACCCG.
 
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