Postseason Chances?

mstranahan

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You never know with the NCCAT selection cabal, but I think if we win out at home, play respectably at ND & Cuse, and win one in ACCT, we are in good bubble position. Do that and win 2 in ACCT, we are in very good bubble position.

9-9 in the toughest conference
road win at VCU
wins against UNC, FSU, ND

With any bubble team, a lot rides on what happens in other conference tourneys (esp the mid majors), but at least we would be solidly in the discussion

If we lose any of the three home games and don't win at ND or Cuse, we're out of the discussion and heading to NIT. We are in NIT even if we go 1-4 from here and lose in first round of ACCT.
 

BigDaddyBuzz

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mstranahan said:
You never know with the NCCAT selection cabal, but I think if we win out at home, play respectably at ND & Cuse, and win one in ACCT, we are in good bubble position. Do that and win 2 in ACCT, we are in very good bubble position.

9-9 in the toughest conference
road win at VCU
wins against UNC, FSU, ND

With any bubble team, a lot rides on what happens in other conference tourneys (esp the mid majors), but at least we would be solidly in the discussion

If we lose any of the three home games and don't win at ND or Cuse, we're out of the discussion and heading to NIT. We are in NIT even if we go 1-4 from here and lose in first round of ACCT.
Click to expand...

Agree
 

YlJacket

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The context right now is that everything I am reading/hearing is that this is going to be an extremely weak year for bubble teams. Multiple mid major conferences down. Big I down. ACC up.

End of the day our OOC schedule/results still sucks. That may rule the day at 9-9 which I see as our ceiling. But there is a bit of hope beyond that.
 

RamblinRed

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Good sense of just how tight the bubble is

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

This was updated this morning.
Miami and Syracuse are in the last 4 byes, Clemson in the Last 4 in
GT is the first team out, Wake is the 6th team out.

The strength of the ACC is keeping these teams afloat, it also helps that the PAC12 and SEC have little depth (SEC went 1-22 against RPI Top 25 in OOC - KY beating UNC was the only win, and 8-36 against the RPI Top 51).

A10 after RI loss last night is likely a 2 bid league. The American is a 2-3 bid league. Wichita State has exactly 1 Top 100 win (at home vs Ill St). San Diego St doesn't have a bubble worthy resume this year.
You combine a lack of good mid majors with 2 of the 6 big leagues having little depth and that means the others are going to gobble up bids, even with so-so records.
 

RyanS12

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Just killing time so I did a bracketology google search. USA Today has us in as an 11 playing Georgetown in Dayton with the winner going to Greenville to play S Carolina. FWIW
It also appears these predictions are pretty adamant about the ACC getin 10 teams in. As they also had Clemson in Dayton as well.
 

bke1984

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If we don't get to 9-9 in conference it doesn't matter...we'll be headed to the NIT (if we're lucky). 9-9 is key + probably one ACCT win. Gotta win the rest of our home games

Oh, and if we DO get in...I expect us to be in the first four as like a 12 seed.
 

Deleted member 2897

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RyanS12 said:
Just killing time so I did a bracketology google search. USA Today has us in as an 11 playing Georgetown in Dayton with the winner going to Greenville to play S Carolina. FWIW
It also appears these predictions are pretty adamant about the ACC getin 10 teams in. As they also had Clemson in Dayton as well.
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That would be a great matchup if we were able to play a team in the SEC. As we know, the ACC is by far the best sports conference in the country, and owns the SEC. I'll point to our game against South Carolina in basketball last year as exhibit A.

The tournament selection committee has a pretty long history of weighing the second half of a team's season much more than the first. There are always bubble teams who look good on paper, but went like 3-7 down the stretch and don't get in. And you'll see RPI 50 teams get in who went good down the stretch. Or teams that have an RPI of 30 but get a seed of 4 or 5.

1 more win baby and we're guaranteed of a 0.500 season!
 

ramblinwreck1378

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As Red has mentioned before, the committee does not look at conference record. They truly look at body of work - the thing floating Clemson is their strength of schedule, particularly out of conference, coupled with the fact that they won a few of them. Of their 5 top 50 wins, 3 are against OOC teams, and the other two are against the same team (Wake). No doubt they still have work to do, but it's totally feasible for them to finish sub .500 in the conf and make the tourney.
 

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ramblinwreck1378 said:
As Red has mentioned before, the committee does not look at conference record. They truly look at body of work - the thing floating Clemson is their strength of schedule, particularly out of conference, coupled with the fact that they won a few of them. Of their 5 top 50 wins, 3 are against OOC teams, and the other two are against the same team (Wake). No doubt they still have work to do, but it's totally feasible for them to finish sub .500 in the conf and make the tourney.
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I don't see in a million years that Clemson gets into the tournament. They're in 12th place in the ACC. They are 0-7 against top 25 teams and in fact have not won a single solitary game against a ranked team in 10 years. TEN YEARS. Their RPI is > 50. If all you can finish ahead of is Boston College, coach-less NC State, and Pittsburgh, that's poor. They haven't beaten a single ACC team in the top half, much less a ranked one. They finish @ Miami, @ Virginia Tech, Florida State, NC State, and Boston College. They will likely be 4-12 in the conference, 14-14 overall heading into their last 2 games. If they screw 1 of those up, they won't even make the NIT. They are horrible and aren't getting in.

They started off 11-2 playing the usual non-conference schedule. They have since gone 3-9. The committee weights what you do the second half of the season more than the first. Its why they will keep not getting into the tournament.
 

ramblinwreck1378

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bwelbo said:
I don't see in a million years that Clemson gets into the tournament. They're in 12th place in the ACC. They are 0-7 against top 25 teams and in fact have not won a single solitary game against a ranked team in 10 years. TEN YEARS. Their RPI is > 50. If all you can finish ahead of is Boston College, coach-less NC State, and Pittsburgh, that's poor. They haven't beaten a single ACC team in the top half, much less a ranked one. They finish @ Miami, @ Virginia Tech, Florida State, NC State, and Boston College. They will likely be 4-12 in the conference, 14-14 overall heading into their last 2 games. If they screw 1 of those up, they won't even make the NIT. They are horrible and aren't getting in.

They started off 11-2 playing the usual non-conference schedule. They have since gone 3-9. The committee weights what you do the second half of the season more than the first. Its why they will keep not getting into the tournament.
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I guess I, along with literally every "bracketologist" out there, will have to disagree with you.
 

RamblinRed

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Note that when you play teams is not part of what is provided to committee members. Dates are not included in the nitty gritty report, neither is conference record.

Now if a committee member feels like looking that up on their own they can, but they are not part of the official information provided.
Last 10 record was discontinued as a metric over a decade ago
 

Deleted member 2897

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ramblinwreck1378 said:
I guess I, along with literally every "bracketologist" out there, will have to disagree with you.
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I have been wrong before. About 1,000 times. I said the same thing last year and was vindicated. I guess we will see. This could be 1,001.
 
orientalnc

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Just in case you are wondering, this is the selection committee:

Mark Hollis, Committee chair and director of athletics at Michigan State University

Mitch S. Barnhart, director of athletics, University of Kentucky
Janet Cone, director of athletics, University of North Carolina at Asheville
Tom Holmoe, director of athletics, Brigham Young University
Paul Krebs, vice president and director of athletics, University of New Mexico
Bernard Muir, director of athletics, Stanford University
Bruce Rasmussen, director of athletics, Creighton University
Peter Roby, director of athletics, Northeastern University
Jim Schaus, director of athletics, Ohio University
Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University
 

mstranahan

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Thanks @orientalnc Also, White has to step out of the room whenever an ACC team is discussed, so he will have no direct input on whether we are in or out (or seed / location / opponent if we are in)
 
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