Post-Spring game season win total poll

[boger2337]

The best way I've seen to do a record prediction is to come up with a probability of winning for each game, then add all of those probabilities up for your expected win total. So, if the probability of winning every game in a 12-game season were 1/2, then the expected win total would be 6. So, what is your best guess at the probability for winning each game on our schedule?

Team Probability of winning
Clemson: _________
USF: _________
Citadel: _________
Temple: _________
UNC: _________
Duke: _________
Miami: _________
Pitt: _________
UVA: _________
VT: _________
NCSt: _________
Ugag: _________

Team Probability of winning
Clemson: _________ 10%
USF: _________ 65%
Citadel: _________99%
Temple: _________70%
UNC: _________70
Duke: _________60%
Miami: _________40%
Pitt: _________75%
UVA: _________45%
VT: _________60%
NCSt: _________50%
Ugag: _________15%

Average of about 55%. So 6-7 games.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So, if our recruiting ranking goes from 40'ish to 20'ish, does that still keep us in that "bunch" with most of our competitors and still far behind our 2 biggest rivals?

I think a 40 to 20 makes 3-5 games a year locks to win. It means we should start beating UNC/Virginia/Duke/Pitt more regularly than we do. And it means our odds of beating Clemson and uGA go from 5% to 25%.

Team Probability of winning
Clemson: _________ 10%
USF: _________ 65%
Citadel: _________99%
Temple: _________70%
UNC: _________70
Duke: _________60%
Miami: _________40%
Pitt: _________75%
UVA: _________45%
VT: _________60%
NCSt: _________50%
Ugag: _________15%

= 6.6

 

[boger2337]

So, if our recruiting ranking goes from 40'ish to 20'ish, does that still keep us in that "bunch" with most of our competitors and still far behind our 2 biggest rivals?

Yes. We need to get a top 15-10 recruiting class. We need minimum of 5 four star guys a year and 1 five star a year. Otherwise they are too flush with talent.

 

[boger2337]

I think a 40 to 20 makes 3-5 games a year locks to win. It means we should start beating UNC/Virginia/Duke/Pitt more regularly than we do. And it means our odds of beating Clemson and uGA go from 5% to 25%.



= 6.6

Yup. 6-7 games. Hopefully odds all fall in our favor on anything over 50% and we sneak out a lower than 50% odds game or two.

 

[Ibeeballin]

@Clemson-L may lose by 2 TD’s but we give them a lot more than they want
USF-W Could be close through 3qtrs but pull away late
Citadel-W. They run the 3O. We’ve seen it a few times before..... lol
@Temple-W. We better be ready because they will be fired up for this one. This could be a big one as far as how much of the season goes. 3-1 is a lot better than 2-2
UNC-W. They were terrible last year. I don’t see much improvement with Old man Brown
@Duke-W. Close game but they lost a lot. The loss of Jones is gonna hurt
@Miami-L Back to back road games catches up to us and they’re fast and talented.
Pitt-W. Narduzi is a good coach but they lost quite a bit too
@UVA-L. Perkins is gonna give us problems and we suck in Hooville
VT-W This will be interesting. Bud has had problems with the 3O. I’m curious how he defends CDP now. They’ve lost a lot on both sides.
NCST-W Short week but it’s at home and at night. Should be electric at BDS.
UGA-L. Unfortunately they’re just deeper than we are. I guarantee we won’t lay down and I won’t be surprised to see some fights during the game. We lose but Kirby and crew are gonna be nervous from here on out.
That’s 8-4 5-3 in ACC.

7-5 is more likely with a loss to VT.
We just have to close the season strong with VT, State and Uga. 1-2 or worse will be hard to swallow...

Pretty much all this. UVA will be replacing some talent on the OL and at WR and IDK what’s going in VT. They don’t appear to be a good football team.

Loss of Adams will sting a lot and may cause me to say 7-5 but ima roll with 8-4

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We should do a prediction prediction. Despite almost never having a losing record in ACC play, and finishing 4th last year, do we once again get picked to finish like 10th-12th in the pre-season ACC power rankings?

 

[vamosjackets]

247 team recruiting rankings in 2019:
GT 52
ugag 2
clemson 10
vt 26
mia 28
ncst 29
unc 32
uva 34
duke 47
pitt 55
usf 76
temple 104
citadel 214

I'm trying to think of a way to produce an "objective" record prediction based on the talent as measured by recruiting rankings. This is just one year's ranking, but I'm going to assume (perhaps erroneously - feel free to point that out if you believe it is) that last year was pretty typical for us and our opponents. I'm going to have to put more thought into this. Maybe somebody else has already done it (Seem certain they have). Maybe putting these into a normal distribution with a corresponding probability or something like that.

A formula I came up with just messing around on excel is (Opp Rec Rank/ GT Rec Rank)/2. That gave us a 50% chance of beating ourselves. I have no logical basis for this formula, but it seemed to come out with numbers that were right on target (except for temple and citadel which were 100% and 206%, but it worked well for the rest). Again, gotta think about this more, though I doubt I will have time. The numbers excel came up with are:

ugag .02
clem .1
vt .25
mia .27
ncst .28
unc .31
uva .33
duke .45
pitt .53
usf .73
temp 1
cit 1

So, our expected win total, based on recruited talent alone would be 5.27. Seems that could be about right.

 

[tech_wreck47]

So, what most of y'all (@85Escape , @AUFC , @RyanS12 , @bwelbo , @tech_wreck47 , @boger2337 ) are saying is that either
A.) Recruiting doesn't really matter.
Or, B.) Our coaching/scheme is superior to theirs.
Or, maybe even C.) The recruiting rankings for our team have been wrong.

Every Power5 team on our schedule has recruiting rankings superior to ours year-over-year. Even USF and Temple are probably close to us in those rankings (I haven't looked it up).

I don’t think there is a big difference in recruiting classes from 25-50 or so. If you look at those teams in the 25-50 range their average star rankings aren’t even that far off except for a few. For instance, I’ll use the 2017 class because those are now juniors and I’m assuming they are the bulk of guys with playing time (I could be wrong).

GT: 2.96
VT: 3
UNC: 3.15
UVA: 2.6
Duke: 2.91
Pitt: 3.04
NC State: 2.85
South Florida: 2.29
Temple: 2.19

Now, of course the teams closer to the 25 range have some bigger time recruits, and that can make a difference, but not always. Multiple teams I listed had good years and are well away from the mid 20’s in recruiting rankings.

 

[RyanS12]

I can see Vegas setting our O/U at 5.5. I will be on the over. I think 6 is our floor and obtainable. Our side of the conference is really a hot mess. Us, Miami and NC with a staff changes, so there’s gonna be a learning curve. VT (A mess) Duke and UVA lost a lot. Pitt is somewhat like us under PJ, over looked but can come out of nowhere and win a game/division any given year. I think the Coastal winner will be 5-3 again.

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

I can see Vegas setting our O/U at 5.5. I will be on the over. I think 6 is our floor and obtainable. Our side of the conference is really a hot mess. Us, Miami and NC with a staff changes, so there’s gonna be a learning curve. VT (A mess) Duke and UVA lost a lot. Pitt is somewhat like us under PJ, over looked but can come out of nowhere and win a game/division any given year. I think the Coastal winner will be 5-3 again.

This is one of the reasons I'm more optimistic about our season this year and believe going 7-5 is very doable. The Coastal division is a mosh pit of mediocre teams.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Seems like there's going to be a logic/consistency problem for a lot of people when predicting records for the next 2-3 years or more.

Will we have more talent than the other team?
Will our scheme/coaching be superior to the other team?

If the answer to those two questions is no, then how can you logically believe we will win? I'm not talking about fan-logic.
If the answer to one or both of those questions is yes, I'd be curious as to your justification for that answer.

Not enough studs in the trenches = small chance of winning titles. The hope is that more studs will be coming than previously.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

This is one of the reasons I'm more optimistic about our season this year and believe going 7-5 is very doable. The Coastal division is a mosh pit of mediocre teams.

But it’s not full of easy wins either.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

The best way I've seen to do a record prediction is to come up with a probability of winning for each game, then add all of those probabilities up for your expected win total. So, if the probability of winning every game in a 12-game season were 1/2, then the expected win total would be 6. So, what is your best guess at the probability for winning each game on our schedule?

Team Probability of winning
Clemson: __10%_______
USF: ___60%______
Citadel: ___95%______
Temple: ___60%______
UNC: ____50%_____
Duke: ____50%_____
Miami: ____50%_____
Pitt: ____50%_____
UVA: ___50%______
VT: ____55%_____
NCSt: ____50%_____
Ugag: ____20%_____

My numbers inserted

 

[Technut1990]

There really isnt any reason we cant win 8. Yes we are adjusting but overall, this is the year in the ACC to be adjusting our offense, several on our schedule are down this year or adjusting like us.

We fall to Clemson, Georgia, Miami and Duke or Virginia, my guess would be Virginia up there.

 

[00Burdell]

So we have superior coaching (if part of coaching is player development) to most every team on the schedule.

Ok, I'll bite. Did we have a superior roster/coaching in 2008? Nope. What did we have? Two things - confidence and a playbook from another universe. Coaching and talent are obviously important but they aren't all there is to it.

Who knows if our playbook will surprise anyone or not (I doubt it will on offense but it might on defense). I'll go out on a limb and say we will be supremely confident as a team - I don't think our team has believed in itself in several years. If this were the NFL, I'd throw those intangibles out the window as worthless. But in college, you can get pretty far with confidence and no film history.

 

[smathis30]

Ok, I'll bite. Did we have a superior roster/coaching in 2008? Nope. What did we have? Two things - confidence and a playbook from another universe. Coaching and talent are obviously important but they aren't all there is to it.

Who knows if our playbook will surprise anyone or not (I doubt it will on offense but it might on defense). I'll go out on a limb and say we will be supremely confident as a team - I don't think our team has believed in itself in several years. If this were the NFL, I'd throw those intangibles out the window as worthless. But in college, you can get pretty far with confidence and no film history.

We also had 10 NFL draft picks, the most returning All-ACC players and the most period in the ACc in 2007, and two FCS teams on the schedule due to confusion about a 9 team conference schedule but hey, it was definitely the triple option

 

[vamosjackets]

I don't think our team has believed in itself in several years.

We're two years removed from winning 9, beating Ugag in Athens, and a ranked SEC team in a bowl.
Last year, we were one bone-headed fumble and a bad fake-punt call away from winning 8.

 

[vamosjackets]

Don't you guys believe that VT, Miami, NCSt, UNC, and UVA are all a good bit more talented than us right now ... or at least somewhat more talented than us? Every one of them was around 20-30 spots ahead of us in the recruiting rankings (or another way to say it, we were about twice as bad as all of them in the recruiting rankings). How is that supposed to be overcome so that most of you have all of those games as 50/50?

 

[boger2337]

Don't you guys believe that VT, Miami, NCSt, UNC, and UVA are all a good bit more talented than us right now ... or at least somewhat more talented than us? Every one of them was around 20-30 spots ahead of us in the recruiting rankings (or another way to say it, we were about twice as bad as all of them in the recruiting rankings). How is that supposed to be overcome so that most of you have all of those games as 50/50?

If VT, and UNC are more talented how did we best them both at their place??? Maybe our coaches are better at scouting players for their system than other coaches. It's not completely based on 4 and 5 stars. As some 4 and 5 stars may play like 3 stars in some systems and 3 stars can play like 4 stars in others. Take Juanyeh Thomas for example. He was a low 3 star and he has potential to be a 1st rounder with Collins at the lead. Tariq was an even lower 3 star and he can be a day 1 or day 2 draftee

 

[vamosjackets]

If VT, and UNC are more talented how did we best them both at their place??? Maybe our coaches are better at scouting players for their system than other coaches. It's not completely based on 4 and 5 stars. As some 4 and 5 stars may play like 3 stars in some systems and 3 stars can play like 4 stars in others. Take Juanyeh Thomas for example. He was a low 3 star and he has potential to be a 1st rounder with Collins at the lead. Tariq was an even lower 3 star and he can be a day 1 or day 2 draftee

I completely agree with you.

So, are we not supposed to believe in recruiting rankings? Is there no difference between a 52 ranking and a 26 ranking (twice as good/bad numerically)? If there is no difference, why should we be excited about the possibility of higher ranked recruiting classes?

Was it just that the coaching for the 52'nd ranked recruiting class was so superior to that of the 26'th ranked class so that the 52'nd ranked class blew out the 26'th ranked class last year? Will that be the case going forward?