Post-Spring game season win total poll

[tech_wreck47]

This will come down to coaching imo, can they put the guys in the best possible position to succeed. We also could get more transfers which could change things up. We have just as much or more talent than UNC, Duke, Pitt, Temple, South Florida, Citadel, NC State, Virginia, and VT. Thats 9 games right there that we have as good as or better chance to win, just going off talent.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We have 1 single sub 0.500 season in ACC play in the last 25 years. No other ACC school can say that. That’s through several different coaches and schemes. I see about two-thirds voted for 6-7 games. When you have a good base of talent but have to play uGA, Clemson, Miami, NC State, etc, that seems like a level headed guess.

2020 we play 10 teams that were ranked last year. 2021 the CGC recruits will have had time to absorb the system, and we’ll have an easier schedule. I’m hoping we can hit 9-10+ wins that year.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

This will come down to coaching imo, can they put the guys in the best possible position to succeed. We also could get more transfers which could change things up. We have just as much or more talent than UNC, Duke, Pitt, Temple, South Florida, Citadel, NC State, Virginia, and VT. Thats 9 games right there that we have as good as or better chance to win, just going off talent.

I am not convinced that we have more talent per se than UNC and Duke but the loss of Daniel Jones for Duke will be significant. To have a shot at a good season, we absolutely must win all three games following Clemson and two of the three involving Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pitt. Unfortunately, Virginia is at the House of Horrors aka Scott Field. Also, if we could sweep UNC and Duke, that would set us up nicely for an excellent season. A tough row to hoe for sure but it gets worse next year, a whole lot worse. First things first, beat Temple, USF, and the Citadel to go into the remainder of the conference schedule 3-1 and all three of those games should be "gimmes" Absolutely, no excuse for losing to South Florida last year. In a lot of years, this would be considered a reasonably challenging to easy schedule but next year is not an ordinary season. We will see. Full disclosure: I voted 4 to 5 wins but I can see us winning as many as 8. If Coach Collins manages more than that, he ought to be Coach of the Year in the ACC at the very least.

 

[RyanS12]

I am not convinced that we have more talent per se than UNC and Duke but the loss of Daniel Jones for Duke will be significant. To have a shot at a good season, we absolutely must win all three games following Clemson and two of the three involving Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pitt. Unfortunately, Virginia is at the House of Horrors aka Scott Field. Also, if we could sweep UNC and Duke, that would set us up nicely for an excellent season. A tough row to hoe for sure but it gets worse next year, a whole lot worse. First things first, beat Temple, USF, and the Citadel to go into the remainder of the conference schedule 3-1 and all three of those games should be "gimmes" Absolutely, no excuse for losing to South Florida last year. In a lot of years, this would be considered a reasonably challenging to easy schedule but next year is not an ordinary season. We will see. Full disclosure: I voted 4 to 5 wins but I can see us winning as many as 8. If Coach Collins manages more than that, he ought to be Coach of the Year in the ACC at the very least.

Agree. The 3 games after Clemson will be or could be key for the season. 3-1 going into the UNC game is huge. We have the potential to be 5-1 the first half of the year.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Agree. The 3 games after Clemson will be or could be key for the season. 3-1 going into the UNC game is huge. We have the potential to be 5-1 the first half of the year.

Yep. Being 3-3 at the midpoint is not where we want to be. 5-1 would be outstanding and render my characteristically pessimistic prediction moot.

 

[AUFC]

Honestly, predicting totals at this point is an exercise in futility. This formula is fairly consistent in recent years: you can basically mark 2 games down as losses (@Clem, v. UGA), FCS game down as a win (vs. The Citadel). Hopefully we can sweep our last 2 OOCs and then pretty much every Coastal game is a toss up. Playing law of averages, I'll say we go 2-2 OOC and 4-4 ACC for a 6-6 record.

 

[iceeater1969]

Honestly, predicting totals at this point is an exercise in futility. This formula is fairly consistent in recent years: you can basically mark 2 games down as losses (@Clem, v. UGA), FCS game down as a win (vs. The Citadel). Hopefully we can sweep our last 2 OOCs and then pretty much every Coastal game is a toss up. Playing law of averages, I'll say we go 2-2 OOC and 4-4 ACC for a 6-6 record.

I took longer to reach same conclusion in post above.
Seems like it's been for never that were pretty sure we would win 8 of 12.

Wonder if in my lifetime even 7 wins will expected as Matter of fact

 

[85Escape]

I picked 8 because I think that would be a fantastic year. And you are never better than you think you are, so let's think we are fantastic. I won't be disappointed with 5, but less than that is a bit of a letdown. Now, if I was betting on an Over/Under of 6 I would go Under using my rational brain. But that's boring and soooo ISTJ. Instead my ENTPness will say 8

 

[knoxjacket]

I took longer to reach same conclusion in post above.
Seems like it's been for never that were pretty sure we would win 8 of 12.

Wonder if in my lifetime even 7 wins will expected as Matter of fact

Did you miss the Chan Gailey Era and the Chan Gailey Equilibrium?

 

[jacketup]

Did you miss the Chan Gailey Era and the Chan Gailey Equilibrium?

He also missed 98-02 when we finished with 5 AP top 25 rankings in a row. Expectations seem to have declined over the past few years.

 

[vamosjackets]

So, what most of y'all (@85Escape , @AUFC , @RyanS12 , @bwelbo , @tech_wreck47 , @boger2337 ) are saying is that either
A.) Recruiting doesn't really matter.
Or, B.) Our coaching/scheme is superior to theirs.
Or, maybe even C.) The recruiting rankings for our team have been wrong.

Every Power5 team on our schedule has recruiting rankings superior to ours year-over-year. Even USF and Temple are probably close to us in those rankings (I haven't looked it up).

 

[boger2337]

So, what most of y'all (@85Escape , @AUFC , @RyanS12 , @bwelbo , @tech_wreck47 , @boger2337 ) are saying is that either
A.) Recruiting doesn't really matter.
Or, B.) Our coaching/scheme is superior to theirs.
Or, maybe even C.) The recruiting rankings for our team have been wrong.

Every Power5 team on our schedule has recruiting rankings superior to ours year-over-year. Even USF and Temple are probably close to us in those rankings (I haven't looked it up).

I think what we are saying is our players are better developed.

 

[AUFC]

So, what most of y'all (@85Escape , @AUFC , @RyanS12 , @bwelbo , @tech_wreck47 , @boger2337 ) are saying is that either
A.) Recruiting doesn't really matter.
Or, B.) Our coaching/scheme is superior to theirs.
Or, maybe even C.) The recruiting rankings for our team have been wrong.

Every Power5 team on our schedule has recruiting rankings superior to ours year-over-year. Even USF and Temple are probably close to us in those rankings (I haven't looked it up).

I just looked at 247 team rankings for the Classes of 2016 and 2017 and every ACC team is pretty much bunched up with similar classes except Florida State, Miami, and Clemson. When the class rankings are that tight, a win versus a loss is gonna come down to other factors like coaching, development, home field advantage, etc.

I do not think recruiting this year matters for results this year, no. You hardly ever see true freshmen starting unless it's a skill position I guess.

 

[lv20gt]

The spring game did a lot of things, but it didn't shed much light into how good we will be next year to me. Part of that is just the inherent nature of playing against yourself in what amounts to a zero sum situation. The other part is we don't really have any previous reference points to go by. If we knew we had a strong DL then an OL not allowing pressure would be good. But changing both sides of the ball means we don't even have that guide.

Going by the schedule. There are two games, UGA and Clemson, that are most likely losses and one game, Citadel, that is most likely a win. If we were to have a 50% chance in each of the remaining that would put the expected win total at 5.5. Due to us completely changing both the offense and defense, I think 5 is more likely than 6.

The interesting thing next year is that our schedule sets up to be very momentum based. It's a very back loaded schedule beyond game 1. To me this makes the seson much more volatile than it would be otherwise. I could see us losing to clemson, winning the next 4 to build up some momentum and then do well against the back half with the time to develop and get used to the new schemes. I could also see us losing 3 of the first 4, having some doubts set in and then struggle in the back half if it becomes apparent that we have holes that we don't have the pieces to fill in this year, and possibly players having late doubts/recognizing they don't fit in the new scheme . I don't think you can really say which is more likely to occur, but I think the variance is a bit higher than it might be with a different order.

Ultimately though I think it's just too early to get a good read on the year yet.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So, what most of y'all (@85Escape , @AUFC , @RyanS12 , @bwelbo , @tech_wreck47 , @boger2337 ) are saying is that either
A.) Recruiting doesn't really matter.
Or, B.) Our coaching/scheme is superior to theirs.
Or, maybe even C.) The recruiting rankings for our team have been wrong.

Every Power5 team on our schedule has recruiting rankings superior to ours year-over-year. Even USF and Temple are probably close to us in those rankings (I haven't looked it up).

Not sure I meant to say any of those things.

 

[vamosjackets]

The best way I've seen to do a record prediction is to come up with a probability of winning for each game, then add all of those probabilities up for your expected win total. So, if the probability of winning every game in a 12-game season were 1/2, then the expected win total would be 6. So, what is your best guess at the probability for winning each game on our schedule?

Team Probability of winning
Clemson: _________
USF: _________
Citadel: _________
Temple: _________
UNC: _________
Duke: _________
Miami: _________
Pitt: _________
UVA: _________
VT: _________
NCSt: _________
Ugag: _________

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I see 10 toss ups and two definite wins. Two would be major upsets if we win. So throw out those four and if we break even, we’ll be 6-6 or maybe 7-5. A lot of breaks for us to get to 9 or 10.

 

[vamosjackets]

I think what we are saying is our players are better developed.

So we have superior coaching (if part of coaching is player development) to most every team on the schedule.

 

[boger2337]

So we have superior coaching (if part of coaching is player development) to most every team on the schedule.

With CPJ yes we did. Now we definitely do on defense and Oline.

 

[vamosjackets]

I just looked at 247 team rankings for the Classes of 2016 and 2017 and every ACC team is pretty much bunched up with similar classes except Florida State, Miami, and Clemson. When the class rankings are that tight, a win versus a loss is gonna come down to other factors like coaching, development, home field advantage, etc.

I do not think recruiting this year matters for results this year, no. You hardly ever see true freshmen starting unless it's a skill position I guess.

So, if our recruiting ranking goes from 40'ish to 20'ish, does that still keep us in that "bunch" with most of our competitors and still far behind our 2 biggest rivals?