Path to the Coastal

Ramblin_Rick

Georgia Tech Fan
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Must win this weekend, win all but one of the remaining ACC games, and that should get it done. Not Easy.

Go Jackets! THWG
 
305jacket

305jacket

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bke1984 said:
The problem is that the tiebreaker still might not be enough. Even if we beat them I can realistically see them winning the rest of their conference games...which means we'd have zero room for error if we assume a loss to Clemson.

It's a huge game, no doubt...but with them beating FSU, it's going to be really tough for us to win the division...even if we win Saturday.
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Agree 100%. A win for them gives them a better chance than a win gives us. But if we want any shot at all, we must win. Then just win 1 of VT or Clemson.
 

bke1984

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305jacket said:
Agree 100%. A win for them gives them a better chance than a win gives us. But if we want any shot at all, we must win. Then just win 1 of VT or Clemson.
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Yep. As much as I'd love to beat Clemson, the VT game is the bigger of the two...division record comes into play with tiebreakers...plus we could always beat Clemson the second time we played them :whistle:
 

Deleted member 2897

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bke1984 said:
The problem is that the tiebreaker still might not be enough. Even if we beat them I can realistically see them winning the rest of their conference games...which means we'd have zero room for error if we assume a loss to Clemson.

It's a huge game, no doubt...but with them beating FSU, it's going to be really tough for us to win the division...even if we win Saturday.
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Well they got blown out by Virginia Tech last year and lost to a pretty bad Notre Dame team. So I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again. (Obviously the Notre Dame doesn't factor into ACC standings, but just sayin...) Once Miami loses once, they typically crap the bad several times after.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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bke1984 said:
Yep. As much as I'd love to beat Clemson, the VT game is the bigger of the two...division record comes into play with tiebreakers...plus we could always beat Clemson the second time we played them :whistle:
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You've discovered the secret plan.
It's could be prime time from now on for the ga tech yellow jackets. All we need is A, B, C to make it happen.
 
tech_wreck47

tech_wreck47

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GT still has a chance to make it. It's not an easy task and will need some bounces our way, but it can happen with even 1 more loss (Clemson if I had to guess) what needs to happen? Well, the easiest/hardest way would be GT winning out. That would insure the acccg with Miami losing two games. Next option would be a three way tie. We beat VT but lose to another ACC team. VT beats Miami. And Miami losses to VT and one of their other conference games. Syracuse could possibly beat Miami with their passing attack and imo would be the team with the best chance to beat Miami outside of VT. You never know though, weird things happen and you might just see Virginia, Pitt, or UNC beat Miami, we just need two of them to beat Miami. I'm not betting my money on it though, because it is no longer in our hands, we now need help. But let's support the team and trust that they still have a chance.
 
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Southpaw13

Southpaw13

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On paper, GT is very much in the mix for the coastal race, only 1 loss out of 1st... but the path forward to actually winning the coastal is pretty crazy.

First, Miami has to have 2 losses in conference, since they have the H2H tie breaker on us. In other words, if we won out in ACC play and Miami only lost to, say, VT... we'd both be 7-1 and they would go to the ACCCG. So... that means to even entertain the conversation of playing for the ACCC, Miami must also lose a 2nd conference game. I doubt UNC can beat anyone... so that leaves it up to either Pitt or UVA to pull an upset.

If that upset occurred, and Miami lost to VT, Miami would be 6-2. One path at that point would be to win out (requiring wins over both VT at home and Clemson on the road.) Possible, but unlikely. The next scenario would require us to beat VT, so a Clemson loss could be allowed and maybe we can move forward.

If we beat VT and they win their remaining conference games, we would have a 3-way division tie at 6-2.

If you go to the tiebreaker rules, I'm not sure how it gets prioritized. We all would be 6-2, with Miami's losses both being division losses. I think that would eliminate them. That would leave us beating VT in a head to head.... but I'm really not sure if that's the way the tiebreakers get layered. We may actually get penalized for having a lower overall win% since we missed out on the UCF game.

If we could find a way to beat Clemson, that would go a LONG way to making the coastal seem feasible.
 

bke1984

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Southpaw13 said:
On paper, GT is very much in the mix for the coastal race, only 1 loss out of 1st... but the path forward to actually winning the coastal is pretty crazy.

First, Miami has to have 2 losses in conference, since they have the H2H tie breaker on us. In other words, if we won out in ACC play and Miami only lost to, say, VT... we'd both be 7-1 and they would go to the ACCCG. So... that means to even entertain the conversation of playing for the ACCC, Miami must also lose a 2nd conference game. I doubt UNC can beat anyone... so that leaves it up to either Pitt or UVA to pull an upset.

If that upset occurred, and Miami lost to VT, Miami would be 6-2. One path at that point would be to win out (requiring wins over both VT at home and Clemson on the road.) Possible, but unlikely. The next scenario would require us to beat VT, so a Clemson loss could be allowed and maybe we can move forward.

If we beat VT and they win their remaining conference games, we would have a 3-way division tie at 6-2.

If you go to the tiebreaker rules, I'm not sure how it gets prioritized. We all would be 6-2, with Miami's losses both being division losses. I think that would eliminate them. That would leave us beating VT in a head to head.... but I'm really not sure if that's the way the tiebreakers get layered. We may actually get penalized for having a lower overall win% since we missed out on the UCF game.

If we could find a way to beat Clemson, that would go a LONG way to making the coastal seem feasible.
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Tiebreaker resets after a team is eliminated, so we’d win the thing in your three way tie scenario with a loss to Clemson and all other Ws.
 
Coloradojacket

Coloradojacket

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We would need to run the table in the ACC as the Clemson games does count against us. The problem is I don't see anyone left on Miami's schedule except Va Tech that can beat them. And right now I am not buying Va Tech.
 

Josh H

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Worry about Clemson. If we can win out, even if Miami wins out we'll still have a chance to ruin UGA's season. There are worst fates than a New Year's Six invite.
 
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