Path to the Coastal

[WreckedbyWhiskey]

Ok... We will finish this coming weekend with an "untested" 2-0 record in ACC play.

Here is the Coastal action for Sat, Oct 7th:

Va Tech (0-1) at BC: GO Damn Yankee Eagles!!!
Duke (1-1) at UVA (0-0): Go Wahoos! I'm partial to UVA...but I think we want Duke to be dead when we meet Duke in our (not Duke's) final ACC game.
Pitt (0-1) at Syracuse: Go Cuse! This game is a non-factor as Pitt is a non-factor.
Miami (1-0) at FSU: Go Noles! ...on the other hand, if would be nice to beat an undefeated Miami next week... but for purposes of hedging to win the Coastal... need Miami losses.
ND at UNC (0-3): this is a non-conference game for ACC purposes... so, GO HEELS!!

I think for the sake of our ranking, we actually want the following:

• VT over BC - we need them ranked when we play them
• Duke over UVA - doesn't matter as much here but I think it looks better for us if Duke wins here
• Pitt over Syracuse - we already beat Pitt, they can keep on winning for all I care - def doesn't help our case if Syracuse wins
• Miami over FSU - this is obvious, we need Miami to be as highly ranked as possible when we play them next week
• UNC over ND - we just beat UNC, they can win from now on

 

[FredJacket]

I think for the sake of our ranking, we actually want the following:

• VT over BC - we need them ranked when we play them
• Duke over UVA - doesn't matter as much here but I think it looks better for us if Duke wins here
• Pitt over Syracuse - we already beat Pitt, they can keep on winning for all I care - def doesn't help our case if Syracuse wins
• Miami over FSU - this is obvious, we need Miami to be as highly ranked as possible when we play them next week
• UNC over ND - we just beat UNC, they can win from now on

The path to the Coastal & what improves our ranking will usually be in conflict. I prefer winning the Coastal over the ranking.

 

[Jmonty71]

We just need to beat Miami and go from there. Beating Thug U, will contribute to tie breakers also.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

We just need to beat Miami and go from there. Beating Thug U, will contribute to tie breakers also.

Step by step, inch by inch.

 

[iceeater1969]

You guys do all understand we have played three games, right? For the life of me, I do not understand how boards like this get so far ahead of themselves. How about this, we win Saturday and then regroup and try to figure a way to win the next one? What is the point of all the rest of this? For me, this Saturday is a season all to itself. I want to win so badly. If we are lucky enough to win, then the next game matters a little more, and so on....

If we are lucky enough after week 9 to be in the coastal discussion, then have at it. Until then, I am trying to figure in my mind how we maintain momentum against the T'holes. Sorry.

Recount, we have played 4 games.

 

[UgagSucks]

Haha, I love the optimism on this board. I can't believe y'all are seriously having an actual debate about running the table and wondering if we get in the playoffs or not.
Please give me a double shot of the gold colored kool-aid y'all are punch drunk on......this conversation is pointless and absurd. Cart before the horse gents....

We lose a minimum of two more games, which would still be an amazing and rare season here on the flats.

Seriously, we lost to UT at the start of the season. They are a team that just got drilled by ugag at HOME.

 

[deeeznutz]

Seriously, we lost to UT at the start of the season. They are a team that just got drilled by ugag at HOME.

Honestly, we dominated our game with UT more than uga did (which is crazy to say), we just happened to gift them the game because of some dumb mistakes we made. I'm not trying to claim it as a win or anything, but if we played that game 10 more times we would win all 10 games. It was just a perfect storm of perfectly mistimed mistakes that gift wrapped the game for them. I've always felt that they're going to look back on that game as a 6 or 7 win team and think "how the hell did we ever beat 10-1 (or 9-2) GT?" I'm as pissed as anyone about that game, but what's done is done and we can't unring the bell. What we CAN do is go out and rip through the rest of our schedule so that game is looked back on in the correct light...a GT domination that we gave away.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

If there is a way, in that scenario, you can bet that ESPN and the NCAA will find a way to keep us out.

A trip to the Peach Bowl against San Diego State would be nice also

 

[bke1984]

I think for the sake of our ranking, we actually want the following:

• VT over BC - we need them ranked when we play them
• Duke over UVA - doesn't matter as much here but I think it looks better for us if Duke wins here
• Pitt over Syracuse - we already beat Pitt, they can keep on winning for all I care - def doesn't help our case if Syracuse wins
• Miami over FSU - this is obvious, we need Miami to be as highly ranked as possible when we play them next week
• UNC over ND - we just beat UNC, they can win from now on

Miami needs to lose to FSU. It's not 1997...the rankings don't really matter. The coastal teams need to lose whenever possible in the crossovers...wins and losses in conference is what determines the winner of the division. If Miami loses and we beat them the next week they are virtually eliminated. Same with VT...they lost to Clemson, another loss puts them at 2 losses. We are probably going to lose to Clemson, so that doesn't leave us a ton of room for error.

 

[hwdgeplague]

The thing about 'what if' scenerios is that only one scenerio actually happens. In 1990 we had the most unlikely road to win the thing and...guess what it happened. Any discussion short of 2 games in 2018 (for this season ) belongs in the other topics forum.

 

[CuseJacket]

MyAJC article
Sugiura: Can Georgia Tech win the Coastal Division?

“I’m a Paul Johnson Kool-Aid drinker, especially when he has the right pieces of the puzzle,” Bowden said. “I like that quarterback. If (Johnson) has an average guy in there, I wouldn’t say (Tech has a good chance), but in that offense, he’s a difference maker.”

Archer sees improvement in the Jackets’ limiting big plays. Tech is tied for ninth in FBS in plays of 20 yards or more allowed from scrimmage with 11. It is evidence of the team’s improvement in tackling.

“That seems like what’s plagued Georgia Tech, is they play really good defense for 50 minutes, but there’s 10 minutes where they lose their minds and don’t tackle anybody,” Archer said.

 

[ibeattetris]

Being tied for 9th in plays over 20 yards is silly when we've played a game less than everyone and are about to have another bye.

I love that people have positive things to say about us, and I hope we continue to live up to, then exceed expectations moving forward.

 

[FredJacket]

MyAJC article
Sugiura: Can Georgia Tech win the Coastal Division?

Not sure I agree that winner of Coastal may need to be 7-1. That would do it. Certainly. But lately (without looking back) seems the Coastal winner typically has 2 (often 3) losses. With 2 of the 3 favs playing Clemson (VT & GT), it could be another year where a 5-3 Coastal team goes to Charlotte. Upsets will occur.

Really drives home how critical this Miami game is for Ga Tech. ...& I choose to be ignorantly blissful regarding the difficulty of our remaining schedule.

Just win the next one. & somebody will knock off Clemson... might as well be us!!

 

[AE 87]

Being tied for 9th in plays over 20 yards is silly when we've played a game less than everyone and are about to have another bye.

I love that people have positive things to say about us, and I hope we continue to live up to, then exceed expectations moving forward.

I like this kind of post that questions whether use of statistic is legitimate. Fwiw, here's the data:

1st w/8 plays of 20+: Washington (5 games) and Wisconsin (4 games)
3rd w/9 plays of 20+: Oklahoma (4 games) and UCF (3 games)
5th w/10 plays of 20+ K State (4 games); Miami, FL (3 games); Michigan State (4 games); and Washington St (5 games)
9th w/11 plays of 20+ GT (4 games); Minn (4 games); UTSA (3 games); and W Kent (4 games)​

On the other hand, we've played 3 power 5 teams, and most of these haven't. In games against Pwr5 competition, we're tied with Auburn at 24th, allowing 3.33 20+yd/game. However, if we round the 20+yd plays allowed to single digit, 3 plays/game, then we'd be tied at #9.

 

[FredJacket]

Really not a long list of "critical" games with Coastal ramifications.
Our game (Ga Tech @ Miami) is by far... the biggest game on the slate for the Coastal Division this weekend. It seems obvious, the Coastal is coming down to VT, Miami, Ga Tech, or UVA. The winner of GT/Miami will be the only undefeated Coastal team of those "top 3". I like UVA... but still cannot bring myself to take them seriously regarding the Coastal. Will be fun (for me) if I'm wrong about that.

Other games:
UVA @ UNC
UVA is developing into the 'surprise' of the division so far. They actually have relatively easy schedule until they meet us on Nov 4th. (at UNC; BC; at Pitt). I don't like to pull against UVA; but frankly, that's what I 'should' do.

FSU @ Duke
NC State @ Pitt
Both of these cross-divisional games involve teams essentially eliminated from the Coastal race.

Gotta make hay this weekend!! GO YELLOW JACKETS!!!

 

[bke1984]

I think we're going to have to finish at 7-1 in conference to have a real chance at the coastal this year...especially if we can't get a W this weekend. We really needed Miami to lose to FSU...I can't believe they won that damn game...

The only way I see 6-2 getting it done is if we beat both Miami and VT and then VT beats Miami. Then I guess we'd lose to Clemson and one of UVA/Wake/Duke.

6-2 with a loss to VT or Miami would be a killer for us...I just don't see who's going to beat either of those guys but us or one of those two in their head-to-head.

I guess you could end up with a three-way tie where each team is 1-1 in that trio....but then it goes to division record for the tiebreaker and CFP ranking if that doesn't settle it...that most likely ouldn't bode well for us.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

We beat dahU we have the inside track on the coastal. If not we will probably need some help to get there. So just win baby.

 

[Sideways]

I think we're going to have to finish at 7-1 in conference to have a real chance at the coastal this year...especially if we can't get a W this weekend. We really needed Miami to lose to FSU...I can't believe they won that damn game...

The only way I see 6-2 getting it done is if we beat both Miami and VT and then VT beats Miami. Then I guess we'd lose to Clemson and one of UVA/Wake/Duke.

6-2 with a loss to VT or Miami would be a killer for us...I just don't see who's going to beat either of those guys but us or one of those two in their head-to-head.

I guess you could end up with a three-way tie where each team is 1-1 in that trio....but then it goes to division record for the tiebreaker and CFP ranking if that doesn't settle it...that most likely ouldn't bode well for us.

The road to the Coastal championship for Georgia Tech ALWAYS runs through Miami and Virginia Tech. Always has, always will for a while anyway. Have to beat both of them. Easy to say, hard to do. Right now, I see Miami as the favorite to win with us as a dark horse. As bke stated "We really needed Miami to lose to FSU" That is the crux of the problem. They won their big cross divisional rivalry game and we will be a heavy underdog in ours.

 

[305jacket]

Miami is the biggest game on the schedule, no doubt. They won their tough crossover game vs FSU, VT lost theirs vs Clemson, and we will realistically likely lose to Clemson (You are insane if you would pencil in a W against the defending champs on the road).

If we lose to Miami, the Coastal is going to Miami unless something radical happens. They will then NEED to lose to VT, and we will have to beat Clemson and VT. Then after that, Miami will need to lose to UVA, Pitt or UNC, very unlikely.

This is a must-win if we want to go to Charlotte. Mainly just to hold the crucial tie-breaker.

 

[bke1984]

Miami is the biggest game on the schedule, no doubt. They won their tough crossover game vs FSU, VT lost theirs vs Clemson, and we will realistically likely lose to Clemson (You are insane if you would pencil in a W against the defending champs on the road).

If we lose to Miami, the Coastal is going to Miami unless something radical happens. They will then NEED to lose to VT, and we will have to beat Clemson and VT. Then after that, Miami will need to lose to UVA, Pitt or UNC, very unlikely.

This is a must-win if we want to go to Charlotte. Mainly just to hold the crucial tie-breaker.

The problem is that the tiebreaker still might not be enough. Even if we beat them I can realistically see them winning the rest of their conference games...which means we'd have zero room for error if we assume a loss to Clemson.

It's a huge game, no doubt...but with them beating FSU, it's going to be really tough for us to win the division...even if we win Saturday.