Path to the Coastal

[a5ehren]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

A 11-1 P5 champion probably gets in with that resume, yes.

Clemson would have two+ losses in that scenario (either they missed ACCCG or lost to us twice) and wouldn't get the OSU treatment.

 

[FredJacket]

Gents... if we go 11-1 with our schedule and ACC champions. The loss is a Game 1 OT loss that all will acknowledge we dominated (still hurts...too soon). There is ZERO chance we miss playoffs. Would love to see this happen.

 

[a5ehren]

I would love it too, but yeah. It isn't going to happen.

 

[Jmonty71]

Gents... if we go 11-1 with our schedule and ACC champions. The loss is a Game 1 OT loss that all will acknowledge we dominated (still hurts...too soon). There is ZERO chance we miss playoffs. Would love to see this happen.

I disagree... I think the NCAA / ESPN find a way to not include us. A one loss Penn St. or one loss Ohio St would get a nod over us. Plus, if they have any chance to place 2 SEC schools into the playoffs, they will. The media and ESPN will protect their investment. NCAA Football is all about money and not much else.

 

[Buzztheirazz]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

Nm

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I disagree... I think the NCAA / ESPN find a way to not include us. A one loss Penn St. or one loss Ohio St would get a nod over us. Plus, if they have any chance to place 2 SEC schools into the playoffs, they will. The media and ESPN will protect their investment. NCAA Football is all about money and not much else.

No way the keep a one loss P5 conference champion, the very conference that won the whole shebang last year and produced the Heisman winner, out of the playoff. Especially with the win resume we'd have earned.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Nm

nope. With two losses, not gonna happen. Unless one of the other P5 Champions has a worse record.

 

[a5ehren]

I disagree... I think the NCAA / ESPN find a way to not include us. A one loss Penn St. or one loss Ohio St would get a nod over us. Plus, if they have any chance to place 2 SEC schools into the playoffs, they will. The media and ESPN will protect their investment. NCAA Football is all about money and not much else.

1) The CFP has nothing to do with the NCAA. It is run by ESPN and the P5 conferences.

2) The records almost never shake out to where putting two teams in from the same conference would be feasible. The only scenario where it might be possible is a 13-0 conference champ and an 11-1 team from the same division...and even then you'd have to be looking at the other 4 P5 champions being 11-2 or worse to avoid the PR hit.

3) Yes, it is about the money, as it has always been and always will be.

 

[FredJacket]

I disagree... I think the NCAA / ESPN find a way to not include us. A one loss Penn St. or one loss Ohio St would get a nod over us. Plus, if they have any chance to place 2 SEC schools into the playoffs, they will. The media and ESPN will protect their investment. NCAA Football is all about money and not much else.

Even if I give you a 1 loss B1G champ and 2 SEC schools (I don't see that happening...but it could)... that still leaves a 4th team for the playoff. 11-1 ACC champion would fit.

...not sure why I'm engaging in this back/forth; but while we're a one loss team, I may as well "hope".

I suppose you could have a scenario we've never seen before (never will IMO) with P5 conference champions all undefeated (except us at 11-1). In that case, we may be the odd team out.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Even if I give you a 1 loss B1G champ and 2 SEC schools (I don't see that happening...but it could)... that still leaves a 4th team for the playoff. 11-1 ACC champion would fit.

...not sure why I'm engaging in this back/forth; but while we're a one loss team, I may as well "hope".

I suppose you could have a scenario we've never seen before (never will IMO) with P5 conference champions all undefeated (except us at 11-1). In that case, we may be the odd team out.

Oklahoma, Washington, Southern Cal, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State. Quite a few to jump over as of today, even if by some miracle we were 11-1. And like CPJ said, the canceled game kinda feels like a loss.

 

[MountPGT1990]

Oklahoma, Washington, Southern Cal, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State. Quite a few to jump over as of today, even if by some miracle we were 11-1. And like CPJ said, the canceled game kinda feels like a loss.

Haha, I love the optimism on this board. I can't believe y'all are seriously having an actual debate about running the table and wondering if we get in the playoffs or not.
Please give me a double shot of the gold colored kool-aid y'all are punch drunk on......this conversation is pointless and absurd. Cart before the horse gents....

We lose a minimum of two more games, which would still be an amazing and rare season here on the flats.

 

[FredJacket]

Haha, I love the optimism on this board. I can't believe y'all are seriously having an actual debate about running the table and wondering if we get in the playoffs or not.
Please give me a double shot of the gold colored kool-aid y'all are punch drunk on......this conversation is pointless and absurd. Cart before the horse gents....

We lose a minimum of two more games, which would still be an amazing and rare season here on the flats.

Thank you. For a second there, I thought we had a chance!!

 

[Jmonty71]

Even if I give you a 1 loss B1G champ and 2 SEC schools (I don't see that happening...but it could)... that still leaves a 4th team for the playoff. 11-1 ACC champion would fit.

...not sure why I'm engaging in this back/forth; but while we're a one loss team, I may as well "hope".

I suppose you could have a scenario we've never seen before (never will IMO) with P5 conference champions all undefeated (except us at 11-1). In that case, we may be the odd team out.

Well us being 10-1 and left out of the playoffs would, I guess, be a good issue to happen. Means we whipped up on the Da U and the puppies. Not to mention Clem and son.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

FSU this year is not a terrible draw for any coastal team. Not as good as getting BC but not as bad as most years.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Ok, so here is the way I see it.
1. VT vs Clemson will tell us a lot because right now I have no idea if VT is good. They haven't played anybody
2. I think it all comes down to our game with Miami. If we beat Miami then we are a pretty darn good football team and the rest will take care of itself.
3. Let's just beat UNC this weekend and get the ball rolling.

 

[Sideways]

Goes through Atlanta.

On the contrary, the road to the Coastal title always goes through Blacksburg. Beat Virginia Tech and well, Miami, and you have got something cooking. Easy to say, tough to do in the best of times.

 

[Sideways]

Agree with most of this. VPISU and Miami appear to be the two teams we would struggle with the most to beat. So until proven otherwise, we want those 2 to lose as many games as possible. Ultimately, we control our own destiny, so we if we just beat them all, we win. Even if we lose to Clemson, if we win the rest, we'd win any 7-1 head-to-heads.

Miami: @Florida State, home vs VPISU, and possible trap games @Duke.
VPISU: Clemson, @Miami, and possible trap games against Duke and @Virginia.
Duke: Miami, Florida State, @Virginia Tech, and possible trap games @Virginia and @Wake.

Duke seems to me the least likely to win the division based on their schedule alone. So I would lean towards wanting Duke to beat Miami and VPISU. Of those 3, I think Duke is the best chance for a win for us too. Duke to beat Miami/Virginia Tech and still lose to at least Florida State, Wake, etc.

If Miami loses to Florida State and Duke, that is a good thing.
If VPISU loses to Clemson and Duke, that is a good thing.

That puts both with 2 losses. If we lose to Clemson and lose to either of them and they only had 2 losses, we'd lose the head-to-head. Or said in the reverse, we just need to beat those teams, because the head-to-head makes up so much ground. Even if those teams have a shock win against FSU or Clemson and we don't, we still get the head-to-head by beating them.

So I'll say I want Miami to lose to FSU, Duke, and VPISU.
I'll say I want VPISU to lose to Clemson and Duke, and to beat Miami.

Because I think beating VPISU at home is easier than beating Miami on the road.

Of course, it would also be nice if those 3 teams lost brainfart games to folks like Virginia or Wake or whoever.

I agree with all of that but the very last. You must understand that losing those kind of games is a job reserved for Tech. I would love for Miami to lose two of the three that they have but I don't see it happening. We are just going to have to beat them and lose only one game. It is a miracle that UNC and the Tobacco Road Mafia haven't figured out a way for the Tarheels to have a schedule that looks like this:

Duke oops they already lost
Wake
BC
Syracuse
Pitt
GT
Western Carolina (designated conference opponent)
Sisters of the Poor (designated conference opponent and homecoming)

 

[Sideways]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

Nah, UNC would get our spot by virtue of coming within, say 30 points of us in their loss. We would be then be, in your scenario, odds on favorite to play Tulane in the Liberty Bowl.

 

[Sideways]

No way the keep a one loss P5 conference champion, the very conference that won the whole shebang last year and produced the Heisman winner, out of the playoff. Especially with the win resume we'd have earned.

If there is a way, in that scenario, you can bet that ESPN and the NCAA will find a way to keep us out.

 

[Sideways]

Ok, so here is the way I see it.
1. VT vs Clemson will tell us a lot because right now I have no idea if VT is good. They haven't played anybody
2. I think it all comes down to our game with Miami. If we beat Miami then we are a pretty darn good football team and the rest will take care of itself.
3. Let's just beat UNC this weekend and get the ball rolling.

Makes sense but I think you can count on VT being at least pretty good and more than likely a very tough row for us to row. It just seems like every year, (I am exaggerating for effect but bear with me) Tech always has the hardest or second hardest schedule in the conference. I suppose a lot of it is having Clemson as our designated cross divisional rival but some of these teams get easier schedules than we do every year. The only thing in our favor is that we have not played Louisville and seldom play NC State.