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Please confess that you are just trolling with this comment. You know that's not the truth.
Use a quit internet search, don't forget to go back to 1989 to encompass 30 years.
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New regime goal posts
- Thread starter Whiskey_Clear
- Start date
Use a quit internet search, don't forget to go back to 1989 to encompass 30 years.
ibeattetris
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I was told I think we have “some incredibly achieving team returning” because I said I expect us to go 6-6. Some people are always glass half empty I guess.
Boaty1
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Fact is, you cannot address a point, you move to something to in order to maintain your narrative.
Just because I’m a glutton for punishment I will try to engage you in a civil discussion. What point am I not addressing?
LibertyTurns
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I think we have enough talent to win 6 easily, 7 with some decent coaching & 8 with that plus a few extras (key recruit or 2, etc).
We may or may not have enough of a passing QB to win enough. Well for example Buffalo has a better than average grad transfer & guess what our S&C coach is from there. The kid’s mobile and has a good enough arm to get us thru 1 year.
We need a WR. We’ve got some. No idea how good they really are but we can’t recruit 1-2 decent WRs in Feb to bolster what we have?
We have 2 new TEs. What the hell these guys do is beside me but winning teams have them so we should too.
Damn we’re flooded with potential slot receivers. RBs are stacked a mile high.
The OL is a strength. Shaq demonstrated you can learn to bear hug block in about a month. Crap, hire someone that knows how to bear hug block & let the guys work out with him in their spare time in the spring.
Defense. How could it be worse? Well I guess there are ways but you almost have to try to go down from 110 to farther down the ladder. Not likely.
S&C. Everyone says this guy is insanely good. Well, we should get insanely good results then. No more being outmuscled like crazy.
Did I miss anything? Punting & kicking are good. KO returns are way above average. Return coverage looked better after USF.
We won 7 games this year. Does the above look like a 5 win scenario to you all?
OldJacketFan
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But but but this is the least talented team in the ACC according to some dontyaknow??????? The cupboard is SO bare that CGC will next 4-5 years to restock it, amirite???????
Sarrick
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Oh boy. We are already getting into the personal attacks on this thread. Poor mods that have to deal with us.
In reality, personally I think we were successful due to the scheme and think we will struggle without it. But to be honest, We can’t really say for sure without knowing all the pieces in place. We have heard rumors of the rest of the staff, rumors of the type of offense/defense we will run, and rumors of who will stay and who will leave.
Speculation is all fun and grand, but at the end of the day, our expectations can’t be truly set until we understand all the pieces involved.
Our forum has been bickering this entire month and i’m just sick of it. Let’s all just take a step back and just wait a few weeks and see what happens. We can reevaluate around national signing day part two and during spring practice.
In reality, personally I think we were successful due to the scheme and think we will struggle without it. But to be honest, We can’t really say for sure without knowing all the pieces in place. We have heard rumors of the rest of the staff, rumors of the type of offense/defense we will run, and rumors of who will stay and who will leave.
Speculation is all fun and grand, but at the end of the day, our expectations can’t be truly set until we understand all the pieces involved.
Our forum has been bickering this entire month and i’m just sick of it. Let’s all just take a step back and just wait a few weeks and see what happens. We can reevaluate around national signing day part two and during spring practice.
iceeater1969
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Yes.
The last 6 q from last year and the last 8 quarters have left a giant blob of negativity on my spirit. Not sure if we are watching the same teams.
Ok defense - back to 4 3
We are going back to 4 man dl with tight man coverage by cb.
Where does the huge but returning nose tackle fit. Listing the possible dl starters I see returners little experience and r freshmen w none. Do we go back to their qb sitting in the pocket for 7 seconds like before last year? Also, do we blitz 2 lb in same gap like last year. Remember we went to the 3 4 since we didnt have big lb and we had plenty of safeties. Now add on the CB in man coverage and I see some long passes against us unless we blitz.
So *** CGC we are going to Attack. I hope we dont take a f n year to get the defense installed.
I think this guy is going to bring the high risk high reward defense to bds.
We will do good against the fcs, temple and really bad teams ( unc) and by end of year we could have 1 or2 good games, but prepare for us giving up some big plays.
But next year we will be lots better. Mb
The third year I expect cgc will recruit some freshman starters. We should be winning with good defensive play .
Offense- we will be putting in an offense no one gas played in at college level. I acknowledge this, but to be more then 5 wins the players and coaches will be doing good.
It's possible our ol and backs can be a surprise but I feel the opponents will crowd us and make us pass.
No qb or wr on our team have passed and run any routes in college.
Our young ol needs to beef up
Our schedule will be brutal in 20.
I am targeting the ND as the game when the transition should be complete. In 15 we were EMBARRASSED at nd ( w scored 14 at end). This was right after the historic 14 ob.
After ND 20 its crunch time for cgc.
Play every game tough.
deeeznutz
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He also just got done playing some of their best teams of the past 30 years, so that kind of balances things out. I don’t deny there were a few times we managed to snatch a defeat from what should have been a win, though.
smathis30
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I am on team struggle bus next season, and would be surprised if we do well next year.
Fact of the matter is that returning starters, schedule, and recruiting rankings are some of the better no-games-involved prediction indicators out there.
Paul Johnson inherited a 2008 team that sent 9 people to the NFL. His recruiting classes sent 10 people in the 8 years after, and with no one projected to get picked this year, it will make it 10 in 10 years. Which is... not good. or in simpler terms, the talent that CPJ inherited in 2008 is roughly the same as the all-star team that Paul Johnson got in his following 8 years at Georgia Tech. This isnt a slight on the current team, but speaks volume about the teams that went 9-4, 7-5, 9-4, and 11-3 that 4 year stretch that sandwiches both coaches tenures. One of the best 4 year stretches in GT history. that speaks wonders to both his coaching ability and Gaileys coaching ability IMO. But it is definitely important in showing that
1. There is potential to recruit better.
2. Paul was an excellent gameday coach
3. Paul Johnson is inherited a roster that was one of the best in GT history, as far as # of NFL draft picks go with the exception of the 2006-2009 window, which sent 11 people to the league. (2005-2008 seasons had 1 more draft pick).
4. Geoff Collins is inheriting a team that had seniors live through a losing record while they were here, and have had 1 draft pick in the last 3 years. That's..... bad.
So he's inheriting a worse roster than his previous predecessor. Which moves on to schedule.
Whats changed since the beginning of Paul's tenure?
Same games we have every year is always the best place to look.
Pitt replaced maryland, and they are a better team
Duke is infinitely better
UNC is about the same
UVA is way better
VT is way worse
Jury is out on miami
Clemson is unstoppable
UGA is unstoppable
So 6/8 opponents we play annually are in way better shape in 2018 then they were in 2008. Adding Notre Dame , who is in better shape as well compared to a G5 team we would schedule instead also makes things interesting with their partial membership in the ACC. Schedule is harder. 2020 especially.
And finally, returning starters.
I argued with countless people last summer about the fact that Syracuse was going to have a great team after underachieving last year and returning a ton of starters on both sides of the ball. Looks like I was right. Also argued about returning snaps in the defensive backfield being one of the highest indicators of success for college football. With a 119th rated pass defense, it looks like having good recruits that weren't good enough to start means graduating people will usually leave a team in worse shape. Whodathunk? Apparently not many people here tbh. Graduating 8 people on defense will hurt.
The average team that returned just 3 starters on defense had an efficiency that was 6% worse than the previous year, and only 1/7 teams that had that many starters lost came back with a better defense than the previous year. Bump it up to 4 returning starters and 4/12 improved at -4% change in YTY efficiency.
The defense struggled last year and will get better in the backfield, but losing basically the entirety of the front 7 will hurt.
Returning 6 starters on offense usually results in a 1% increase in efficiency on average, and 9/18 teams that returned 6 starters last year had a more efficient offense the next year.
So lets look at who is returning on offense:
Only lose 1 of the OL. Which is good, but its a tackle. Part of the success of Oliver this year was his ability to be a downhill runner, which was using out Strong GCG to his advantadge. TQM is a wide runner, which our weakness at tackles (relatively speaking) wasn't playing into his favor. Having a strong GCG will help downhill running, and especially the B block running through A gap reads (and potentially zone reads in a RPO style offense).
However, with the new rules in college football (and the NFL really) being more friendly to passing style offenses, tackles are WAY more important. As seen in the blindside, having a good LT outweighs a good GCG combo in most modern offenses. This will be the toughest transition for GT. Its been our weakness, and will need to be fixed. CPJ had one tackle make it to the NFL (who he inherited).
The position transition is a horse beaten to death a second time.
I don't really care bout results until 2021. It will be tough. There's a lot of potential on the roster, but year 1 will lose way too much production on both sides of the ball and year 2's schedule is a form of cruel and unusual punishment. Year three should be interesting and can make some noise.
In short:
Paul Johnson blew everyone out of the water with the roster Gailey horrifically under performed with. Since then, the overall Talent on the roster has decreased, and the competition in conference has gotten tougher, which puts CGC in a far worse situation that what CPJ has inherited. Add to having to install a 3rd scheme in 3 years on D and losing 8 starters, and the next few years will potentially be very rough.
Fact of the matter is that returning starters, schedule, and recruiting rankings are some of the better no-games-involved prediction indicators out there.
Paul Johnson inherited a 2008 team that sent 9 people to the NFL. His recruiting classes sent 10 people in the 8 years after, and with no one projected to get picked this year, it will make it 10 in 10 years. Which is... not good. or in simpler terms, the talent that CPJ inherited in 2008 is roughly the same as the all-star team that Paul Johnson got in his following 8 years at Georgia Tech. This isnt a slight on the current team, but speaks volume about the teams that went 9-4, 7-5, 9-4, and 11-3 that 4 year stretch that sandwiches both coaches tenures. One of the best 4 year stretches in GT history. that speaks wonders to both his coaching ability and Gaileys coaching ability IMO. But it is definitely important in showing that
1. There is potential to recruit better.
2. Paul was an excellent gameday coach
3. Paul Johnson is inherited a roster that was one of the best in GT history, as far as # of NFL draft picks go with the exception of the 2006-2009 window, which sent 11 people to the league. (2005-2008 seasons had 1 more draft pick).
4. Geoff Collins is inheriting a team that had seniors live through a losing record while they were here, and have had 1 draft pick in the last 3 years. That's..... bad.
So he's inheriting a worse roster than his previous predecessor. Which moves on to schedule.
Whats changed since the beginning of Paul's tenure?
Same games we have every year is always the best place to look.
Pitt replaced maryland, and they are a better team
Duke is infinitely better
UNC is about the same
UVA is way better
VT is way worse
Jury is out on miami
Clemson is unstoppable
UGA is unstoppable
So 6/8 opponents we play annually are in way better shape in 2018 then they were in 2008. Adding Notre Dame , who is in better shape as well compared to a G5 team we would schedule instead also makes things interesting with their partial membership in the ACC. Schedule is harder. 2020 especially.
And finally, returning starters.
I argued with countless people last summer about the fact that Syracuse was going to have a great team after underachieving last year and returning a ton of starters on both sides of the ball. Looks like I was right. Also argued about returning snaps in the defensive backfield being one of the highest indicators of success for college football. With a 119th rated pass defense, it looks like having good recruits that weren't good enough to start means graduating people will usually leave a team in worse shape. Whodathunk? Apparently not many people here tbh. Graduating 8 people on defense will hurt.
The average team that returned just 3 starters on defense had an efficiency that was 6% worse than the previous year, and only 1/7 teams that had that many starters lost came back with a better defense than the previous year. Bump it up to 4 returning starters and 4/12 improved at -4% change in YTY efficiency.
The defense struggled last year and will get better in the backfield, but losing basically the entirety of the front 7 will hurt.
Returning 6 starters on offense usually results in a 1% increase in efficiency on average, and 9/18 teams that returned 6 starters last year had a more efficient offense the next year.
So lets look at who is returning on offense:
Only lose 1 of the OL. Which is good, but its a tackle. Part of the success of Oliver this year was his ability to be a downhill runner, which was using out Strong GCG to his advantadge. TQM is a wide runner, which our weakness at tackles (relatively speaking) wasn't playing into his favor. Having a strong GCG will help downhill running, and especially the B block running through A gap reads (and potentially zone reads in a RPO style offense).
However, with the new rules in college football (and the NFL really) being more friendly to passing style offenses, tackles are WAY more important. As seen in the blindside, having a good LT outweighs a good GCG combo in most modern offenses. This will be the toughest transition for GT. Its been our weakness, and will need to be fixed. CPJ had one tackle make it to the NFL (who he inherited).
The position transition is a horse beaten to death a second time.
I don't really care bout results until 2021. It will be tough. There's a lot of potential on the roster, but year 1 will lose way too much production on both sides of the ball and year 2's schedule is a form of cruel and unusual punishment. Year three should be interesting and can make some noise.
In short:
Paul Johnson blew everyone out of the water with the roster Gailey horrifically under performed with. Since then, the overall Talent on the roster has decreased, and the competition in conference has gotten tougher, which puts CGC in a far worse situation that what CPJ has inherited. Add to having to install a 3rd scheme in 3 years on D and losing 8 starters, and the next few years will potentially be very rough.
Oldgoldandwhite
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Can we get a great QB? And can we get a really good front 7 on defense? That’s basically the difference in mediocre vs our good teams in the past. Or in CFB.
Animal02
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Lots of words to make excuses for the new coach to do crap for two years. Saying the next two years are throw away is not acceptable. Anyone that does has their head in the sand.
Vespidae
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Hard to say. Lots of mistakes on the field too.
Look at Jeremy Pruitt. He inherited a true dumpster fire and coached them! Position by position ... he also declared if you don’t wanna play 60 min, he’ll recruit somebody who can.
UT wins agains asupeeior Auburn team. Beats a ranked KY team, and almost beatsUni S Carolina.
Attitude matters. I don’t think it’s as grim as you might feel.
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If Collins wants the recruiting engine humming along, I think his goal is at least to go bowling in year one.
The year after is a harsh schedule, but with a good first year, I think he can recruit to a good (bowling at least) second year. In the second year, that means knocking down VT, UVA, Duke, and the beatable division opponents.
I don’t know about Clemson, but what I’ve always heard about Saban and Meyer is that the time with the coaches is unbelievably efficient. You have to be perfect and engaged, or you repeat and start over. Collins has a reputation as a fun coach, but I’d like to hear how effective the process is too. That’s one of my goalposts.
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The year after is a harsh schedule, but with a good first year, I think he can recruit to a good (bowling at least) second year. In the second year, that means knocking down VT, UVA, Duke, and the beatable division opponents.
I don’t know about Clemson, but what I’ve always heard about Saban and Meyer is that the time with the coaches is unbelievably efficient. You have to be perfect and engaged, or you repeat and start over. Collins has a reputation as a fun coach, but I’d like to hear how effective the process is too. That’s one of my goalposts.
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I think Smathis's post is quite realistic and filled with good points and legit numbers.
I actually think those who believe we should have won 9 games under Johnson this year or in 2019 are being unrealistic. 7 wins is right about what this team should have won. It was a horrible defensive team - the worst in ypp, ppg and 3rd down % allowed against P5 opponents in Johnson's 11 seasons. Then you lose 7 starters off of it and expect to be better the following season. That is not rational.
On offense this year's team's metrics are so skewed by a couple of games, it was so bi-modal. What do you think the OFEI for L'ville, VT and UNC is vs the OFEI for all the other P5 games GT played this year. I'd bet it was Top 10 for the first three and in the bottom half for the other 7. Offensively this team struggled to score more than 20 points against everyone that wasn't a sub 100 defense.
Offensively the team has been less than avg (From a Johnson at GT perspective) since the 2014 season. Looking at performance relative to the Johnson at GT avg, this past season's team was better than only the 2015 squad in terms of ypp and ypg and bottom half in 3rd down %. The L'ville game basically messes with the avg and makes the ppg higher than Johnson's avg GT offensive squad. Take out that game and it was the third worst scoring team of his tenure. The 2017 season was bottom 3rd in ppg, was below avg in ypp and right around avg in ypg and 3rd down %. 2016 was a year with a below avg offense in ppg, ypg and 3rd dwon %, but above avg in ypp and TO's. Looking only at comparison's to his full tenure GT hasn't had an above avg Johnson offense since 2014. Now Johnson's offenses were always by far the best part of his program, but they have struggled against P5 opponents more in the last 4 years than at any other time in his tenure.
If you think they should have won Pitt and Duke then you also have to allow they they coulda/shoulda lost UVA and Miami.
Ironically there is a stronger correlation between the defense and our best seasons under Johnson than the offense. Our 4 best seasons included our 2 best offenses (2009, 2014) but also 2 of ours 4 worst. But those 4 seasons were also the four best defensive squads we fielded under Johnson.
With the exception of the outlier 2014 season this has basically been a .500 program for the last 7 years. To expect it to vary too much from that for the next couple of years doesn't feel reasonable to me.
I think both ends of the spectrum are being unfair. No one should accept a 3-4 win team the next couple of seasons. That would be a sign of a bad transition. But no one should be expecting 8-9 wins either. That is too high based on what this team has done the last 4 seasons. 5-7 wins is the likely area of performance for the next 2 years based on past performance and what is returning.
I actually think those who believe we should have won 9 games under Johnson this year or in 2019 are being unrealistic. 7 wins is right about what this team should have won. It was a horrible defensive team - the worst in ypp, ppg and 3rd down % allowed against P5 opponents in Johnson's 11 seasons. Then you lose 7 starters off of it and expect to be better the following season. That is not rational.
On offense this year's team's metrics are so skewed by a couple of games, it was so bi-modal. What do you think the OFEI for L'ville, VT and UNC is vs the OFEI for all the other P5 games GT played this year. I'd bet it was Top 10 for the first three and in the bottom half for the other 7. Offensively this team struggled to score more than 20 points against everyone that wasn't a sub 100 defense.
Offensively the team has been less than avg (From a Johnson at GT perspective) since the 2014 season. Looking at performance relative to the Johnson at GT avg, this past season's team was better than only the 2015 squad in terms of ypp and ypg and bottom half in 3rd down %. The L'ville game basically messes with the avg and makes the ppg higher than Johnson's avg GT offensive squad. Take out that game and it was the third worst scoring team of his tenure. The 2017 season was bottom 3rd in ppg, was below avg in ypp and right around avg in ypg and 3rd down %. 2016 was a year with a below avg offense in ppg, ypg and 3rd dwon %, but above avg in ypp and TO's. Looking only at comparison's to his full tenure GT hasn't had an above avg Johnson offense since 2014. Now Johnson's offenses were always by far the best part of his program, but they have struggled against P5 opponents more in the last 4 years than at any other time in his tenure.
If you think they should have won Pitt and Duke then you also have to allow they they coulda/shoulda lost UVA and Miami.
Ironically there is a stronger correlation between the defense and our best seasons under Johnson than the offense. Our 4 best seasons included our 2 best offenses (2009, 2014) but also 2 of ours 4 worst. But those 4 seasons were also the four best defensive squads we fielded under Johnson.
With the exception of the outlier 2014 season this has basically been a .500 program for the last 7 years. To expect it to vary too much from that for the next couple of years doesn't feel reasonable to me.
I think both ends of the spectrum are being unfair. No one should accept a 3-4 win team the next couple of seasons. That would be a sign of a bad transition. But no one should be expecting 8-9 wins either. That is too high based on what this team has done the last 4 seasons. 5-7 wins is the likely area of performance for the next 2 years based on past performance and what is returning.
smathis30
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I'm or saying they are throwaways just that the situation he Is inheriting is much different. Pruitt had several good recruiting classes he Inherited. With them all being at worst 3rd in the SEC east. Potential was there, it just needed coaching. Geoff Collins best recruiting class he will inherit will be 5th in the coastal. That's a big difference, especially with the loss of 13 starters, which I pointed out usually leads to worse teams historically. 2020 should be a good season had we not played what looks to be the entirety of the college football playoff in the regular season. The last 4 years (this year's senior class) have a sub 500 record. We aren't exactly tearing it up either. We have room to grow and a roster that wasn't as good as it was 10 years ago. Both are facts. Odd years schedules are also harder. Average fan here expected a 9-3 regular season on the poll. So expect white and gold glasses to give a 2 game curve. I expected 6-6, so I'm basically as negative as the hive mind is positive. From a historical and statistical POV, it's going to be rough
Animal02
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Seems like everyone likes to cherry pick around the 2015 season which was obviously an injury marred anomaly.
.500 season is acceptable....there are several here suggesting 3 wins, which to me is unacceptable barring a injury marred season like 2015.
smathis30
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It's literally using the senior class, which is a standard metric for football. Next year's senior class will be different obviously, but we haven't made two seasons without a nfl draft pick there we're only 10 teams in the NFLSeems like everyone likes to cherry pick around the 2015 season which was obviously an injury marred anomaly.
.500 season is acceptable....there are several here suggesting 3 wins, which to me is unacceptable barring a injury marred season like 2015.
Animal02
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I don't measure success as NFL draft picks. And 4 years discounts a whole lot of redshirts.
TampaGT
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I was reading these comments last night at the Orange Bowl and poor signal kept me from getting in the discussion last night. For those that say we have poor talent/dumpster fire, we won 7 games with that talent. If you say this is only 4 or 5 win talent next year, then you are saying CPJ is a great coach and is worth 2 or 3 wins a season? Reading some of the post, I can clearly see that some will not say CPJ was a great coach. Next years schedule doesn’t change that much there are only three games that are different. But let’s break the schedule down to just our conference games. We were 5-3 and we should be at least .500 next year. The way some of y’all are talking we are only winning between 1-3 conference games. If we miss back to back bowl games, that seat will be very hot year three.
deeeznutz
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Yeah I don’t get the instinct to trash our current players as if we are the worst team in the conference (and if you’re using the bowl game example, what about Miami or ND or any of the other bowl teams that got thrashed for whatever reason?). We have good players recruited toward a specific scheme, but they are still football players who played in different systems up til GT anyway. It’ll be “fun” watching these posters turn around and praise the same guys they’re trashing when some of them break out in the new scheme.
Also, I have yet to hear a solid answer from these guys about whether they’ll consider a 6-8 win season a huge success by Collins or a sign that we weren’t really as bad as they’re claiming.