NCAA denies waivers for Clayton, Ezzard; Sims granted immediate eligibility

boger2337

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MacJacket said:
If that's the case, maybe Clayton and/or Sims gets the waiver this year. I don't have much hope though. I think @33jacket's money trail/betting lines take is pretty accurate. Clayton could swing a game for us if he as good as advertised.
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I just noticed the GT over under on season wins was taken down by 3 online books.... this may be a good sign. I think Clayton and Simms give us an extra win, if not 2.
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gtrower

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forensicbuzz said:
As I understand it, the committee that does the initial assessment strictly follows the rules, as they are written. They reject the waiver application. The player/school appeals, and a separate committee hears the appeal and rules to confirm or overrule the rejection of the waiver application. It is my understanding that most of these guys you all are belly-aching about appealed their rejection and had it overruled, granting them immediate eligibility. I think people are not hearing all the middle stuff that's going on.
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Yeah but what’s the timeline of the appeals. We’ve got a game in 7 days and we’ve got potentially our best DL unaware of he’ll be able to play. It’s horse**** if you’re stealing games from these kids b/c you either didn’t start the process early enough or don’t have the manpower to properly enforce the rules you made in a timely manner.

They’re dragging their feet while making season-altering decisions.
 

33jacket

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@boger2337 the line still shows on my betting line; but if was taken down another sign of how fixed all this is. If they reset it at 3.5 or 3 holy crap am I going all in on the over.

since the waivers denied more money went to the under lol. -165 now. WOW. So much so they may have to move the line to -3.5

Vegas is going to make a killing now on the over. Early on, the money started moving to the over with a 40% payout +140. Vegas needed GT to finish the under to not get whacked. After these denials it went from -135 on the under to -165 that is EYE OPENING.

Vegas now, as of today, wants GT to win more than 4. The line dropped so low to -165 that typically they reset the over under to match. Probably 3.5 now.

But this is big news. Because now as of this morning vegas wants GT to win more.

now there is a change the appeals are approved. Watch
 
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boger2337

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stech81 said:
Sorry I don't understand how this helps with the Appeals of our players, unless you are telling me that Vegas is paying off people in the NCAA.
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Saying Vegas moves lines to make money. They usually know information way before we hear. When I say way before I mean a day or 2.
 

33jacket

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stech81 said:
Sorry I don't understand how this helps with the Appeals of our players, unless you are telling me that Vegas is paying off people in the NCAA.
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no, vegas is not paying off the NCAA, they are the same organization. (not really of course, but decisions by the NCAA are bounced off vegas for a myriad of reasons, the least being active game fixing)

yes, its tin hat, conspiracy stuff. Unfortunately, enough game fixing has happened with some of it being caught, and the timing is often unreal. For instance you watch lines move before the public ever knows one thing, but vegas and the whales somehow knew and caught wind.

the reason is due to that relationship. NFL has it, NBA too...its bad...its dirty. Its all an active organization, the sport organization, the tv and ratings, and vegas.

of course, thats what I kinda believe and for me its fun to watch this stuff happen

Right now this is undeniable. The GT betting line moved BIG in the last 24-48 hours. Big to alot of money going now to the under after the initial waivers were denied. Vegas stands to make money as of this morning if GT wins more than 4 games. 5 days ago, vegas stood to lose money if GT won more than 4 games. So; my prediction, and I will probably be TOTALLY wrong but thats the fun of conspiracies, by my prediction is I can see the appeals being approved now. Before, there is no way they would have been. But alot of money moved to the under to affect a odds repost in 24 hours is a huge indication of why now vegas his interest to get more talent on our roster.

you can't take any of this stuff seriously. Its a dumb game, with dumb betting and it unfortunately has become money entertainment....and big money. Whenever there is big money...it becomes unpure. It becomes stained...its kinda a thing with human history
 
boger2337

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33jacket said:
no, vegas is not paying off the NCAA, they are the same organization. (not really of course, but decisions by the NCAA are bounced off vegas for a myriad of reasons, the least being active game fixing)

yes, its tin hat, conspiracy stuff. Unfortunately, enough game fixing has happened with some of it being caught, and the timing is often unreal. For instance you watch lines move before the public ever knows one thing, but vegas and the whales somehow knew and caught wind.

the reason is due to that relationship. NFL has it, NBA too...its bad...its dirty. Its all an active organization, the sport organization, the tv and ratings, and vegas.

of course, thats what I kinda believe and for me its fun to watch this stuff happen

Right now this is undeniable. The GT betting line moved BIG in the last 24-48 hours. Big to alot of money going now to the under after the initial waivers were denied. Vegas stands to make money as of this morning if GT wins more than 4 games. 5 days ago, vegas stood to lose money if GT won more than 4 games. So; my prediction, and I will probably be TOTALLY wrong but thats the fun of conspiracies, by my prediction is I can see the appeals being approved now. Before, there is no way they would have been. But alot of money moved to the under to affect a odds repost in 24 hours is a huge indication of why now vegas his interest to get more talent on our roster.

you can't take any of this stuff seriously. Its a dumb game, with dumb betting and it unfortunately has become money entertainment....and big money. Whenever there is big money...it becomes unpure. It becomes stained...its kinda a thing with human history
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Honestly. With the way the line moved I now expect us to win 4 games. It opened at 4.5, now dropped to 3.5. Vegas would lose a lot if it went under, but could gain a lot if it pushed at 4.
I wish I could bet on the exact number.

What's crazy if you could take a prop bet for the spread to hit, you would more than likely be rich. At least for the spread to hit within 1 point. It's odd how often they hit random over unders and spreads.

I tracked 2 weeks of NBA basketball and in 50 games they hit the over unders (within 1 point) 19 times.... that's scary good. Showing little room for mistake on judging a game. Also, they we were within 3 points 27 times(including within 1 point) that means over 50% of the games were almost dead on the money for their odds. The spread was closing spread.
Of those 27 games, the opening over/under moved by 2-3 points.

I'm simply amazed at their statistics and algorithms to get them that close.... that or it's rigged. Because 9/10 you'll see a team up 15 with 10 seconds left and happen to turn the ball over and give up an easy layup to push the game over.

Tin hats or not, it is extremely fishy. Their is little to no edge with Vegas. They basically know the outcome before us the majority of the time.
 
AE 87

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33jacket said:
no, vegas is not paying off the NCAA, they are the same organization. (not really of course, but decisions by the NCAA are bounced off vegas for a myriad of reasons, the least being active game fixing)

yes, its tin hat, conspiracy stuff. Unfortunately, enough game fixing has happened with some of it being caught, and the timing is often unreal. For instance you watch lines move before the public ever knows one thing, but vegas and the whales somehow knew and caught wind.

the reason is due to that relationship. NFL has it, NBA too...its bad...its dirty. Its all an active organization, the sport organization, the tv and ratings, and vegas.

of course, thats what I kinda believe and for me its fun to watch this stuff happen

Right now this is undeniable. The GT betting line moved BIG in the last 24-48 hours. Big to alot of money going now to the under after the initial waivers were denied. Vegas stands to make money as of this morning if GT wins more than 4 games. 5 days ago, vegas stood to lose money if GT won more than 4 games. So; my prediction, and I will probably be TOTALLY wrong but thats the fun of conspiracies, by my prediction is I can see the appeals being approved now. Before, there is no way they would have been. But alot of money moved to the under to affect a odds repost in 24 hours is a huge indication of why now vegas his interest to get more talent on our roster.

you can't take any of this stuff seriously. Its a dumb game, with dumb betting and it unfortunately has become money entertainment....and big money. Whenever there is big money...it becomes unpure. It becomes stained...its kinda a thing with human history
Click to expand...

Why did the line move after the waivers were denied? I thought you were saying the waivers were denied to protect the line.
 
boger2337

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AE 87 said:
Why did the line move after the waivers were denied? I thought you were saying the waivers were denied to protect the line.
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Public betting moved the line. Plus they lowered it to make people assume they will barely win 3 games. Right now the odds are over 3.5 -130, under 3 games +110. You stand to make more on a $100 bet on the under than over. I'd say public bet continues to take the under. Before kickoff next week I can see the juice flipping and we see over 3.5 even money, and under 3.5 games -115. Meaning you'd stand to make more on the over.

Again, I think we win 4 games. We should win 5-7. But 4 is our ceiling. This is Vegas enticing the public to take the under so they make more money.
If I can find a book to give me over 4 games at plus money I'm taking it for 1k.
 

33jacket

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AE 87 said:
Why did the line move after the waivers were denied? I thought you were saying the waivers were denied to protect the line.
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No not what i said. The waivers were denied not to protect the line, to protect vegas money.

So. Money was almost 50/50 on the over to the under at 4 games. But the over paid out 40 percent more or bonus. +140 on a 100 dollar bet. So if the over hits. Vegas loses alot. 40 percent more than the under money covers. Thats a big deal. So to protect gt from winning more than 4 games you want to hamper them as much as possible. Hence waiver denial.

Now. The waivers get denied.

Everyone last two days jumps back and bets the under so hard it goes to -165 on a bet. Meaning you have to bet 165 to win 100. Now the money is so far on the under, that the line had to move down to 3.5 and all the OLD bets on the +140 with a 4 game over bet are more than covered by all the recent bets to the under.

Now vegas makes more money ensuring the over on all the 4 over bets since more went under.

Hence, why now the appeals need to be approved. From their eyes. And probably will be. Lol
 

33jacket

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boger2337 said:
Honestly. With the way the line moved I now expect us to win 4 games. It opened at 4.5, now dropped to 3.5. Vegas would lose a lot if it went under, but could gain a lot if it pushed at 4.
I wish I could bet on the exact number.

What's crazy if you could take a prop bet for the spread to hit, you would more than likely be rich. At least for the spread to hit within 1 point. It's odd how often they hit random over unders and spreads.

I tracked 2 weeks of NBA basketball and in 50 games they hit the over unders (within 1 point) 19 times.... that's scary good. Showing little room for mistake on judging a game. Also, they we were within 3 points 27 times(including within 1 point) that means over 50% of the games were almost dead on the money for their odds. The spread was closing spread.
Of those 27 games, the opening over/under moved by 2-3 points.

I'm simply amazed at their statistics and algorithms to get them that close.... that or it's rigged. Because 9/10 you'll see a team up 15 with 10 seconds left and happen to turn the ball over and give up an easy layup to push the game over.

Tin hats or not, it is extremely fishy. Their is little to no edge with Vegas. They basically know the outcome before us the majority of the time.
Click to expand...

see thats the thing, if you actively gamble like I do for fun, you don't know or see daily how crazy good vegas is. Sports are supposed to be by chance. And this is not at all.

I contend, one reason the NBA uses instant replay review from a central location in New Jersey, vs by site review like ncaa football, is so that jersey (gambling is legal) can easily work with vegas and how the money moves during in game betting as well. And they can coordinate with vegas centrally very easy. The NBA is for sure the most fixed of them all.

Did NFL move to a central review too? If so...beware....
 
boger2337

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33jacket said:
see thats the thing, if you actively gamble like I do for fun, you don't know or see daily how crazy good vegas is. Sports are supposed to be by chance. And this is not at all.

I contend, one reason the NBA uses instant replay review from a central location in New Jersey, vs by site review like ncaa football, is so that jersey (gambling is legal) can easily work with vegas and how the money moves during in game betting as well. And they can coordinate with vegas centrally very easy. The NBA is for sure the most fixed of them all.

Did NFL move to a central review too? If so...beware....
Click to expand...
I sent you a message
 

Enuratique

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Thanks for the line explanations. As someone who doesn't ever gamble, it's a bit of a counterintuitive (to me at least) way of thinking (betting $165 to win $100? I'm used to thinking of things like a straight up bet: I wager $100 GT wins 4 or more games, I get $100, if not I lose $100). But yes, I can totally buy what @33jacket is selling.
 
boger2337

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Enuratique said:
Thanks for the line explanations. As someone who doesn't ever gamble, it's a bit of a counterintuitive (to me at least) way of thinking (betting $165 to win $100? I'm used to thinking of things like a straight up bet: I wager $100 GT wins 4 or more games, I get $100, if not I lose $100). But yes, I can totally buy what @33jacket is selling.
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Yeah it was confusing for me at first.

You'd bet 165 to win 100 so in total you'd have 265.
 
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