NCAA Baseball Tournament

FredJacket

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Some clarity. Ok.... for postseason purposes, peak in April.

I assume this means if you are awarded to "host" ... your team will be part of field at that site. I suppose there is chance you could flop in May & be a #2-#4 seed at your home site.??? Not sure.

This also means it is pretty much inevitable some super-regionals sites will "host" after the home team was eliminated in regional round.



 

FredJacket

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D1 Baseball has more on this. D1B calls it a "hybrid" approach.


The hosting criteria has not yet been finalized by the NCAA. Schools will not be required to submit a financial guarantee, and it’s believed that the hosting criteria will consist of a hybrid approach, combining merit, location and other factors.

One of the factors is the ability to test & lead time explained shows why decisions must be made in May.

The NCAA, in a memo released over the weekend, said that a full week is needed to make sure the facility at an individual school can bet setup as a testing site. Meanwhile, a minimum of three weeks is needed to ensure that the site is functioning efficiently.
 

FredJacket

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There are 6 weekends left in regular season. Only 4 before regional sites are awarded on May 10th. For Ga Tech, that's...

at VT x3
at Ga State (midweek)
v FSU x3
at UGA (midweek)
v Kennesaw St x3 (2 home 1 road)
v Clemson x3

If Ga Tech leads division after all that, they get to host .. maybe even in line for super regional. I think the ACC is only going to get 3 (maybe only 2) top 16 seeds. I'm posting this now (so early) because this weekend matters a lot in that regard. I still feel like this team has IT. Just need to execute.

Go JACKETS!!

Upside.... peaking now is not near as critical as peaking in late May/June. At least we're not NCST or UVA ... who are already scrambling for a shot at postseason at all.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Down to a 3 seed in D1 Baseball's projection. I think we have to be above 500 in the ACC to make it. Last night's road win over uGag not reflected, but D1 doesn't give as much weight to mid-week games.

Sitting at 15-12 in the ACC with 9 ACC games and the Tourney to go, we definitely control our destiny. Clemson, @ Miami and UNC series remain.

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FredJacket

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Yes... the nerve has been struck...

RPI is useless for purposes of comparing college baseball teams this year. It was "debatable" in past seasons as to its usefulness... but it is not even a question this year. It really gets under my skin that D1 Baseball's staff even refers to it. Credit to Aaron Fitt for pointing it out... but bad on him (and the rest of the D1 Baseball guys) for continuing to speak to it as a metric in other parts of the podcast & other content. There are several conferences that have chosen to play conference ONLY this year. That is fine. They can do that. They also should not be penalized for that decision when it comes to bids for the post-season.

However.... RPI can't be used to sort it out.... full STOP. The entire RPI calculation/model assumes enough inter-mingling (technical term) of opponents and opponents of opponents over the course of a season that you can 'calculate' a rating number for some apples to apples comparison of teams. This season... that assumption is blown up. IF RPI is used in any form to sort out the field of 64, it will be Exhibit A on jamming "bad [objective] criteria" into problem solving because you cannot come up with a better alternative.

I am not sure what the best solution is.. but step 1 is for the powers that be to state emphatically/publicly that RPI will not be part if the discussion. From there... what I'd do is try to rank/rate the strength of each conference and then assign X number of bids per conference or for some flexibility a range. Ex... ACC will get 7-9 teams, SEC 8-10... whatever... then comparing within a conference becomes pretty easy to fill out those numbers. It is not perfect; but to even hint that the RPI number means anything useful for breaking out teams in the margins is a significant problem.

The #2 RPI team (today... late Apr) is Fairfield University.... a Connecticut baseball powerhouse..... an undefeated MAAC team playing in a conference with no out of conference games on its schedule. The same dudes at D1 Baseball referring to the RPI (sporadically... and selectively) do not have Fairfield ranked in their own top 25 and have them slotted as a #3 seed in the Vandy regional. So... the #2 RPI team ... according to D1 is in the bottom "half" of the field of 64 right now. They need to decide is RPI a "thing" or not. It is not... not this year. May as well line up the 64 alphabetically.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Yes... the nerve has been struck...

RPI is useless for purposes of comparing college baseball teams this year. It was "debatable" in past seasons as to its usefulness... but it is not even a question this year. It really gets under my skin that D1 Baseball's staff even refers to it. Credit to Aaron Fitt for pointing it out... but bad on him (and the rest of the D1 Baseball guys) for continuing to speak to it as a metric in other parts of the podcast & other content. There are several conferences that have chosen to play conference ONLY this year. That is fine. They can do that. They also should not be penalized for that decision when it comes to bids for the post-season.

However.... RPI can't be used to sort it out.... full STOP. The entire RPI calculation/model assumes enough inter-mingling (technical term) of opponents and opponents of opponents over the course of a season that you can 'calculate' a rating number for some apples to apples comparison of teams. This season... that assumption is blown up. IF RPI is used in any form to sort out the field of 64, it will be Exhibit A on jamming "bad [objective] criteria" into problem solving because you cannot come up with a better alternative.

I am not sure what the best solution is.. but step 1 is for the powers that be to state emphatically/publicly that RPI will not be part if the discussion. From there... what I'd do is try to rank/rate the strength of each conference and then assign X number of bids per conference or for some flexibility a range. Ex... ACC will get 7-9 teams, SEC 8-10... whatever... then comparing within a conference becomes pretty easy to fill out those numbers. It is not perfect; but to even hint that the RPI number means anything useful for breaking out teams in the margins is a significant problem.

The #2 RPI team (today... late Apr) is Fairfield University.... a Connecticut baseball powerhouse..... an undefeated MAAC team playing in a conference with no out of conference games on its schedule. The same dudes at D1 Baseball referring to the RPI (sporadically... and selectively) do not have Fairfield ranked in their own top 25 and have them slotted as a #3 seed in the Vandy regional. So... the #2 RPI team ... according to D1 is in the bottom "half" of the field of 64 right now. They need to decide is RPI a "thing" or not. It is not... not this year. May as well line up the 64 alphabetically.

You could have started off with "Troll accepted" 😎. Remind me not to bring it up over beers.

As long as we get in, I'm fine. And playing away doesn't scare me either.

As to rpi, I agree it's of more limited use this year. There is no good metric. D1 is sort of saying so many per conference in their guess ........ Which doesn't count.

Fairfield is the UCF of the baseball world. But in baseball, Fairfield will get into the mix for being able to win the CWS and I'll root for them. UCF never got the chance.

Who makes up the group which decides the NCAA tourney field? I forgot its been so long.
 

GTNavyNuke

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No ACC rep on committee. Not sure if that's important or not.


Thanks.

And no SEC rep. So mid-majors should be favored. Which I am fine with. There are ~292 college baseball teams and I like the smaller schools to be able to get in. If an SEC or ACC team hasn't made an incontrovertible case for being in, I like the little guys getting a chance. Better for college baseball overall.
 

FredJacket

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Thanks.

And no SEC rep. So mid-majors should be favored. Which I am fine with. There are ~292 college baseball teams and I like the smaller schools to be able to get in. If an SEC or ACC team hasn't made an incontrovertible case for being in, I like the little guys getting a chance. Better for college baseball overall.
SEC representative... Miss St.
 

gtrower

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Amazing how quickly the D1B narrative has gone from “ACC is the deepest conference in the country and deserves 9-10 teams” to “Who from the ACC even deserves to host?” Just because we’re playing 36 conference games. Hard not to think if the SEC was playing 36 instead of 30 (and didn’t have the Missouri’s and A&M’s to beat up on) they’d be getting the benefit of the doubt as “running the gauntlet.”
 

eokerholm

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Ya'll weigh in, but I'm all about better analytics and calculations....

CBR is a modified RPI statistic that factors in conference RPI, conference record, and other factors. The CBR is more accurate than the RPI in predicting postseason selection. The bold line represents the boundary between teams projected to make the tournament and those that are predicted to miss this tournament.

Additional notes: The weights for each component of CBR were trained using the NCAA Selection Committee's picks from the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Both CBR and RPI are dependent upon teams playing non-conference games. Teams from conferences that are not playing non-conferences games this season (e.g., Big Ten, MAAC) are unlikely to be ranked accurately and can only be compared within conference. The boundary of teams predicted to make/miss the tournament was chosen based on the number of at-large bids available this season (34) and with the assumption that the MAAC will be a one-bid league. The CBR will be frequently updated.
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gtrower

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That tool might be useful in a normal year, but yeah it looks pretty useless this year. Think the committee will go heavy on conference standings - especially for the ACC with 36 conference games.

Don’t think there’s any chance we’re on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but it does highlight that we’re trending that way and need to right the ship. Series loss this weekend would be disastrous for perception.
 
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