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FredJacket

FredJacket

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Fredericksburg, Virginia
The Jackets really have their work cut out for them this weekend. Opening ACC play on road (not good in 2018) against a very talented Miami team. Miami is 10-2; and unlike Ga Tech, Miami has won ALL the games they were suppose to win. Only 2 losses were at Florida where they (Miami) won 1 of 3 games.

Our road ACC series are: Miami, Louisville, BC, VT, Duke (in that order). By seasons end, it is possible this weekend will be against the best team on that list. Louisville's record looks much like Ga Tech's right now.

Here are some key teams stats with D1 rank in parenthesis (we need to play our best baseball to beat Miami):

OFFENSE
Batting Avg:
Miami - .329 (8)*
GT - .264 (128)

Scoring:
Miami - 8.5 (16)
GT - 5.8 (124)

Hits:
Miami - 139 (16)*
GT - 120 (47)

Doubles:
Miami - 28 (17)*
GT - 17 (135)

HR per game:
Miami - 1.42 (7)
GT - 1.08 (34)

OB%:
Miami - .426 (13)
GT - .365 (136)

PITCHING
ERA:
Miami - 2.72 (25)
GT - 3.20 (53)

BBs per 9IP:
GT - 2.60 (10)*
Miami - 3.14 (35)

K/BB:
GT - 3.86 (8)
Miami - 3.22 (26)

WHIP:
Miami - 1.19 (38)
GT - 1.20 (41)

DEFENSE
Flg %:
GT - .972 (93)
Miami - .961 (186)

*Best in ACC
source: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary
EDIT: Apologies for the link... no matter where I copy link, it creates path to same spot (not the spot I want it to be). You'll have to drill down to see numbers.
 
Last edited:

Deleted member 2897

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Well big fat surprise, it feels like a 1-2 outcome would be acceptable, and a 2-1 outcome would be head-over-heels fantastic.

This is also one of those times that statistics early in the season can lead you astray.
Rutgers (3 of Miami's 9 wins) is 2-7. They barely beat Chicago State and Butler
UBMC (3 of Miami's 9 wins) is 2-4. They beat UNC Asheville twice.

In fact, none of Miami's wins came against teams with a winning record...except for 1 win against Florida. I'd say on paper Miami looks like the significantly superior team, but I see no reason we can't win at least 1 game down there. If we can win 2, we might be onto something this year.
 

senoiajacket

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FredJacket said:
The Jackets really have their work cut out for them this weekend. Opening ACC play on road (not good in 2018) against a very talented Miami team. Miami is 10-2; and unlike Ga Tech, Miami has won ALL the games they were suppose to win. Only 2 losses were at Florida where they (Miami) won 1 of 3 games.

Our road ACC series are: Miami, Louisville, BC, VT, Duke (in that order). By seasons end, it is possible this weekend will be against the best team on that list. Louisville's record looks much like Ga Tech's right now.

Here are some key teams stats with D1 rank in parenthesis (we need to play our best baseball to beat Miami):

OFFENSE
Batting Avg:
Miami - .329 (8)*
GT - .264 (128)

Scoring:
Miami - 8.5 (16)
GT - 5.8 (124)

Hits:
Miami - 139 (16)*
GT - 120 (47)

Doubles:
Miami - 28 (17)*
GT - 17 (135)

HR per game:
Miami - 1.42 (7)
GT - 1.08 (34)

OB%:
Miami - .426 (13)
GT - .365 (136)

PITCHING
ERA:
Miami - 2.72 (25)
GT - 3.20 (53)

BBs per 9IP:
GT - 2.60 (10)*
Miami - 3.14 (35)

K/BB:
GT - 3.86 (8)
Miami - 3.22 (26)

WHIP:
Miami - 1.19 (38)
GT - 1.20 (41)

DEFENSE
Flg %:
GT - .972 (93)
Miami - .961 (186)

*Best in ACC
source: http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary
EDIT: Apologies for the link... no matter where I copy link, it creates path to same spot (not the spot I want it to be). You'll have to drill down to see numbers.
Click to expand...

As much as we lament our fielding (well, actually only at one position I guess), we are significantly better than Miami at this point. Also less walks. Walks and errors lose games.
 
gt13

gt13

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
544
The way we've been pitching lately, I hope we can neutralize Miami's apparent edge on offense over us. Our bats have been trending upward in the past ~7 games too. Need to win at least 1 this weekend.
 
Female Jacket

Female Jacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
74
I believe our biggest problem is relievers and closers .
Say for instance, Zay starts and goes 5 flawless innings, then our bullpen must keep up his good work, but of course not everyone can be Zay.
So then a hit happens, a run happens, still all okay unless our batters aren't doing their job then it's not okay.
My point, is bullpen depth. We haven't seen it in action against ACC hitters yet, so Miami will be the litmus test.
Also why not try for two games instead of 3 in a series. For instance, you pitch Zay and Hurter one day then the next day is CT and Amos, then the last day of the series draw sticks to see who pitches whilst saving Bartnicki and Roedig for midweek starts.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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Fredericksburg, Virginia
If you look at our 4 losses.... the problem has been scoring runs in EVERY one. Here are run totals in 4 losses: 1, 2, 0, 1

2 of our wins are in extra innings in relatively low scoring games against 2 pretty good teams (WVU, UCLA). That is an indication of pitching depth. Not saying our bullpen is lights out; but it is far deeper than it has ever been. The weekend rotation of Curry, CT, Hurter seems like a no brainer to me. Gives team the best chance to win each game... that's all you can do.
 
Female Jacket

Female Jacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
74
FredJacket said:
If you look at our 4 losses.... the problem has been scoring runs in EVERY one. Here are run totals in 4 losses: 1, 2, 0, 1

2 of our wins are in extra innings in relatively low scoring games against 2 pretty good teams (WVU, UCLA). That is an indication of pitching depth. Not saying our bullpen is lights out; but it is far deeper than it has ever been. The weekend rotation of Curry, CT, Hurter seems like a no brainer to me. Gives team the best chance to win each game... that's all you can do.
Click to expand...

Miami is the ACC test we need. I'm just strategizing, thinking it's best to put all your eggs in one basket because 'Cause two out of three ain't bad'...lala
 
THWG

THWG

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Also, one of Roedig or Willingham will be moving to the pen since I don't believe we have anymore weeks with 2 midweek games. That right there provides a lot more depth and stability. Right now, there are 3 tiers in the pen. Tier 1 is Hughes, English, Gibson, Roedig/Willingham, and Bartnicki (I know he struggled, but it's clear Hall is going to use him a lot). Tier 2 is Shirah, Chapman, Mannelly, Brace, and Carpenter. Tier 3 is everyone else with maybe Lee and Winborne having potential to get innings. These guys have performed well this year and like @FredJacket said, the depth is so much better.
 
Female Jacket

Female Jacket

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
74
THWG said:
Also, one of Roedig or Willingham will be moving to the pen since I don't believe we have anymore weeks with 2 midweek games. That right there provides a lot more depth and stability. Right now, there are 3 tiers in the pen. Tier 1 is Hughes, English, Gibson, Roedig/Willingham, and Bartnicki (I know he struggled, but it's clear Hall is going to use him a lot). Tier 2 is Shirah, Chapman, Mannelly, Brace, and Carpenter. Tier 3 is everyone else with maybe Lee and Winborne having potential to get innings. These guys have performed well this year and like @FredJacket said, the depth is so much better.
Click to expand...

Mannelly is out with a "forearm" strain, lets hope that is all it is... for the rest of the bullpen, let's see who got on the plane to Miami. I'm rooting for GT, and I believe they can and will have a decent season.
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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bwelbo said:
Well big fat surprise, it feels like a 1-2 outcome would be acceptable, and a 2-1 outcome would be head-over-heels fantastic.

This is also one of those times that statistics early in the season can lead you astray.
Rutgers (3 of Miami's 9 wins) is 2-7. They barely beat Chicago State and Butler
UBMC (3 of Miami's 9 wins) is 2-4. They beat UNC Asheville twice.

In fact, none of Miami's wins came against teams with a winning record...except for 1 win against Florida. I'd say on paper Miami looks like the significantly superior team, but I see no reason we can't win at least 1 game down there. If we can win 2, we might be onto something this year.
Click to expand...

I expect us to win one game and hope we win two. Three wins will make me irrationally exuberant and think we can host. Zero will make me think we don't go to the NCAAs again and I'll suffer PTSD from the last few years play.

@bwelbo is right. Miami hasn't been tested that much. While they are 10-2 their SOS is 117th while ours is 78th. Miami lost their two games to #6 (10-5) Florida while the good team we played was UCLA to whom we also lost 2. Miami has been consistent enough to win ALL other 9 games. We haven't. That's why Miami has a better early season RPI of 30 and ours is at 78. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/rpi-live

Batting and relieving consistency will probably cost us a game. As will being on the road where most teams are at a distinct disadvantage and we were awful last year. Till we do better on the road, I see no reason to expect a change.
 
gt13

gt13

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
544
Xza looking sharp through 2.

English just deposited one over the left center wall. Jackets up 3-0 with 1 out in T3
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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Through 7. These 2 teams are tied & making an equal number of imperfect plays. Same story. Different day. Win is there for taking. Loss is lurking in the night ready to strike this old man who seriously wonders why he cares this much.
 
The Doddfather

The Doddfather

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
482
Great job by the Miami catcher in that inning. Multiple balls in the dirt chested up. Blown opportunity again. Cmon guys. Let’s hold em and scratch one across.
 
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