Keeping Santucci

[TechPhi97]

The defense got better so naturally the new defensive coordinator has to get credit. But who gets the blame for us going from one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers to being bottom half? Our defense was helped immensely by us having a d-line rotation that featured exclusively 4th, 5th and 6th year players. Would like to keep Santucci for the sake of continuity, but if he leaves, I won’t miss him blitzing safeties from 10+ yards deep.

I mean, you can cherry-pick a single stat if you want but I don't think Key is sitting down Santucci after this season and discussing in detail the number of turnovers forced. You can look at raw stats or at FEI and see that there was marked improvement across all major statistics, except turnovers forced. Here's a spreadsheet with the details.

In summary, our raw stats on Defense:

• Our PPG dropped by 13.1% / 3.9 PPG
• Our NCAA rank in PPG improved by 25 points (97th to 72nd)
• We gave up 21.6% fewer yards per game (437.1 to 342.8)
  • The reason is because we gave up 44.8% fewer running yards (221.3 to 122.2)
• Our total number of defensive plays per game went down 12.5% (69.5 to 60.8, or 8.7 plays per game)
• Average yardage we gave up per play was down 11.1% (6.3 to 5.6), even with passes taking up a higher percentage of plays (42.0% to 65.0%)
• Penalties were down 33.8% from 6.5 per game to 4.3
• Turnovers per game were down 1.0 from 1.9 to 0.9 (THIS IS THE ONLY NEGATiVE CHANGE)

If you look at FEI, here's what you see:

• DFEI rank went from 77 to 50
• The strength of opponents offenses went from 24 to 9.
• Our overall strength of schedule went from ~45 to ~25 (these are averages of the three measures used)

So, our raw numbers were objectively better, and adjusted for opponents were also better. I'm not saying it was massive improvement, but if you look at what happened at Duke when Elko started you'll see that they made a good improvement in the first year and then a good improvement in the second year (I posted about this in the "How much difference can Santucci make?" thread).

On the downside, our raw defensive efficiency was still pretty crummy, only moving from 109th last year to 91st this year. Still an improvement but tons of room to get better.

For comparison, from 2021 - 2023, Duke's defensive numbers on defense (FEI numbers):
Opponent adjusted: 113 -> 62 -> 27
Raw defensive: 119 -> 52 -> 23

Sorry for the long post, but feel it's important to actually quantify the improvement in the defense.

 

[4shotB]

So yeah, my question if I'm in Santucci's shoes when looking at my current position versus any other offers is which one gets me closer to my next goal.

Good points. I think he has to also assess what he has coming back. He is losing a lot in the front 7. Does he have enough talent either on the roster or coming in to be at least as good thjere as we were last year? I think a person may move laterally in that case to avoid a setback. No doubt he was better than what we have had in a while. I really enjoyed seeing the other teams punt on occasion this year. It had been awhile.

 

[Root4GT]

Santucci did a good job and I hope he stays.

But the most important thing is having a superior head coach, because they will go out and find good assistants. Key found Santucci. If Santucci (or any other assistant) leaves, then Key will replace him with another good coach.

Coaching turnover is pretty normal. It can be frustrating because it seems to undermine momentum. But momentum seems to be a thing of the past. Every season the team is reconstructed anew.

The biggest issue would be having a 3rd DC in 3 years. Really hard for players to be proficient with that much change.

Hope he stays. I liked what he did with our defense this year.

 

[Root4GT]

I mean, you can cherry-pick a single stat if you want but I don't think Key is sitting down Santucci after this season and discussing in detail the number of turnovers forced. You can look at raw stats or at FEI and see that there was marked improvement across all major statistics, except turnovers forced. Here's a spreadsheet with the details.

In summary, our raw stats on Defense:

• Our PPG dropped by 13.1% / 3.9 PPG
• Our NCAA rank in PPG improved by 25 points (97th to 72nd)
• We gave up 21.6% fewer yards per game (437.1 to 342.8)
  • The reason is because we gave up 44.8% fewer running yards (221.3 to 122.2)
• Our total number of defensive plays per game went down 12.5% (69.5 to 60.8, or 8.7 plays per game)
• Average yardage we gave up per play was down 11.1% (6.3 to 5.6), even with passes taking up a higher percentage of plays (42.0% to 65.0%)
• Penalties were down 33.8% from 6.5 per game to 4.3
• Turnovers per game were down 1.0 from 1.9 to 0.9 (THIS IS THE ONLY NEGATiVE CHANGE)

If you look at FEI, here's what you see:

• DFEI rank went from 77 to 50
• The strength of opponents offenses went from 24 to 9.
• Our overall strength of schedule went from ~45 to ~25 (these are averages of the three measures used)

So, our raw numbers were objectively better, and adjusted for opponents were also better. I'm not saying it was massive improvement, but if you look at what happened at Duke when Elko started you'll see that they made a good improvement in the first year and then a good improvement in the second year (I posted about this in the "How much difference can Santucci make?" thread).

On the downside, our raw defensive efficiency was still pretty crummy, only moving from 109th last year to 91st this year. Still an improvement but tons of room to get better.

For comparison, from 2021 - 2023, Duke's defensive numbers on defense (FEI numbers):
Opponent adjusted: 113 -> 62 -> 27
Raw defensive: 119 -> 52 -> 23

Sorry for the long post, but feel it's important to actually quantify the improvement in the defense.

Good stuff. If fans could not see how much better our defense played this season they were not paying attention.

 

[4shotB]

Good stuff. If fans could not see how much better our defense played this season they were not paying attention.

Maybe they didn't WANT to see the progress.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Tenuta was here 2002-2007. It’s been 17 years since the D has been fair at best. Wow.

Im well aware

 

[Tundeballer]

Correct. The safety at depth is unaccounted for in the pass pro. We’ve been successful more often not with safety blitzes. It’s not Santucci’s fault Brooks takes poor angles and misses sacks/tackles.



GT defense has been bad for 20yrs. To say they naturally got better is insane take. This is the first time in a long time we looked organized and fundamentally sound, so why shouldn’t the DC receive credit?

Might not have been the best written sentence by me but there’s a difference between “defense naturally got better” and what I said naturally the defensive coordinator gets the credit. I do think Santucci deserves credit for the improved defense along with us having a a really mature defensive line. What does the defense look like without a bunch of seniors on the defensive line? We will see next season. And my greater point is does anyone get the blame for us not forcing more turnovers this season or does the DC only get credit for the positives?

I don’t have data to back it up but the safety blitz felt really inefficient the way we run it. Even if strategically there’s a value to it, most other teams safeties get a running start at the snap and atleast factor into the play where as ours seem to have no impact due to blitzing from so far away.

 

[g0lftime]

Might not have been the best written sentence by me but there’s a difference between “defense naturally got better” and what I said naturally the defensive coordinator gets the credit. I do think Santucci deserves credit for the improved defense along with us having a a really mature defensive line. What does the defense look like without a bunch of seniors on the defensive line? We will see next season. And my greater point is does anyone get the blame for us not forcing more turnovers this season or does the DC only get credit for the positives?

I don’t have data to back it up but the safety blitz felt really inefficient the way we run it. Even if strategically there’s a value to it, most other teams safeties get a running start at the snap and atleast factor into the play where as ours seem to have no impact due to blitzing from so far away.

Job of the coach is to get the players in position to make plays. It's up to the players to execute. Coaches don't make the tackles.

 

[MtnWasp]

• Turnovers per game were down 1.0 from 1.9 to 0.9 (THIS IS THE ONLY NEGATiVE CHANGE)

What percentage of turnovers is due to coaching/scheme?

Certainly, putting pressure on the QB will be correlated to turnover rates, but I think there is a general shortage of Edge pass rushing talent in the college game which is why we see so many edge players moving around in the new era. You can bring extra players on the pass rush but this will also lead to a susceptibility to chunk plays, which are also highly correlated to winning. And the Edge rush is being countered by dual threat QBs.

Under the previous regime, we were treated to coaches prioritizing creating turnovers. What we saw was absurd as our defenders were running down the field with the ball carrier smacking at the ball and not bothering to tackle them. The strategy was not successful.

So again, what percentage of turnovers is a scheme thing and how much is just kinda random chance cashing in on unforced errors and random events?

 

[Root4GT]

What percentage of turnovers is due to coaching/scheme?

Certainly, putting pressure on the QB will be correlated to turnover rates, but I think there is a general shortage of Edge pass rushing talent in the college game which is why we see so many edge players moving around in the new era. You can bring extra players on the pass rush but this will also lead to a susceptibility to chunk plays, which are also highly correlated to winning. And the Edge rush is being countered by dual threat QBs.

Under the previous regime, we were treated to coaches prioritizing creating turnovers. What we saw was absurd as our defenders were running down the field with the ball carrier smacking at the ball and not bothering to tackle them. The strategy was not successful.

So again, what percentage of turnovers is a scheme thing and how much is just kinda random chance cashing in on unforced errors and random events?

Fumbles are fairly random in who recovers them. You are spot on that pressuring QBs is the main reason for interceptions. Team that can do it with 4 players will generate more than teams that can’t. High end edge rushers are rare.

 

[RonJohn]

Might not have been the best written sentence by me but there’s a difference between “defense naturally got better” and what I said naturally the defensive coordinator gets the credit. I do think Santucci deserves credit for the improved defense along with us having a a really mature defensive line. What does the defense look like without a bunch of seniors on the defensive line? We will see next season. And my greater point is does anyone get the blame for us not forcing more turnovers this season or does the DC only get credit for the positives?

I for one am happy to see a defense that tackles instead of pushing the runner 8 yards past the first down marker while trying to pull the ball out.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

7 and 6 is not better than 7 and 6. We are treading water.

Go Jackets!

 

[jojatk]

7 and 6 is not better than 7 and 6. We are treading water.

Go Jackets!

You win the award for the shallowest analysis and conclusion ever. Well done. But you're certainly correct that 7W and 6L are the same numbers as 7W and 6L.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

Well, I like to keep it simple stupid. Santucci is fine but our defense is still below average.

Go Jackets!

 

[GT33]

Not only is Santucci one of our better DCs ever, but this staff needs stability in the 3 most important spots- HC, OC and DC and possibly important position #4, the QB coach. We need to get a pipeline going & not be shuffling staff every year along with 50% of the players. That may work at the cesspool, in tuscaloosa or ann arbor, but GT does not have that type of program.

I hope we do all we can to hold onto him, with the exception of if he gets a HC job he really wants. Going to a lateral position like at da U or Old Piss or a&m would be pretty ****ty.

 

[MtnWasp]

7 and 6 is not better than 7 and 6. We are treading water.

What say, brethren, is this the shared perception of the congregation?

Has Key's program already hit the status of "treading water?"

I'm still in a 'buy' position on GT Football.

 

[gtee91]

What say, brethren, is this the shared perception of the congregation?

Has Key's program already hit the status of "treading water?"

I'm still in a 'buy' position on GT Football.

At the moment...yes...if we can't make progress next year with a good class of recruits and a net positive portal...then there is not much else we can do

 

[RonJohn]

I hope we do all we can to hold onto him, with the exception of if he gets a HC job he really wants. Going to a lateral position like at da U or Old Piss or a&m would be pretty ****ty.

Just my opinion, nothing else: I think Santucci and Faulkner are both guys who are looking towards future goals. I don't think either of them would be happy being the coordinator at GT for 10 years. I think they both are making their names for their future goals. I think that drives a fire that you won't get from someone who wants a 10 year stable job. It seems like that fire and desire is what Key has been looking for in coaches. When they do leave for better positions, I expect that Key will find similar replacements. Not people who copy what one of these guys do schematically, but people who have the same career drive to succeed. Also, if one of those guys leaves for a HC position at a good school, it will give Key and GT the impression as a place where up-and-coming coaches can make their name and move on to higher positions. Being -THE- place where young-smart-innovative coaches want to be is not a bad thing.

 

[Root4GT]

Well, I like to keep it simple stupid. Santucci is fine but our defense is still below average.

Go Jackets!

The next step to go from about average to above average is more better defensive players. I believe based on our defensive most coaches would have had a significantly worse defense than Santucci did.

 

[MWBATL]

7 and 6 is not better than 7 and 6. We are treading water.

Go Jackets!

Wayyyyy too simplistic a take….be better.