I've been thinking a lot about this the last couple weeks. I feel cautiously optimistic about the offense. I think the defense is going to be the difference between a solid year and a disappointing one. I want to believe the D can be much better. But I'm just not sure it's realistic for a quick turnaround.
The big problem is personnel. We needed to keep our best returning players and add from the portal/recruiting. We lost three of our best playmakers up front in Kennard, Douse and Kelly. We added from the portal. But numbers-wise just to replace those guys. I'm not sure we got any clear upgrades.
I feel ok about DT/NT. I like the pickups of Gore and van den Berg a lot. Biggers and Lockett have size and could break out for us. But I don't know that we have any playmakers here who are going to generate pressure or sacks. DE is going to be a problem. IMHO, we're going to really miss Kennard. We have no proven players and we're thin on numbers. We were bad at DE last year. I don't see the pieces in place for quick improvement. But there's always the chance of someone(s) breaking out in a big way. Harris looked good at times last year, but didn't generate TFLs or sacks. Height and Sylvain have ability, but need to progress and stay healthy. Could get help here from Jacob Cruz (listed at LB, but has DE size now) and Makius Scott (played as a big DE some last year and we're deeper at DT.)
At LB, Efford should be solid. We have a lot of bodies and young talent for 2 LB spots. But we need the next stars to emerge beside him. If Tren Tatum can put it together, we could have a solid duo. But he struggled last year. DB, could be the strength of the D. We lost a few playmakers. But we have a lot of versatile players and some experience. But we lost some starters and we need the next group to mature.
Coaching is a toss up. Santucci did good things at Duke, but was it him or Elko? I think he's probably an upgrade from Thacker/Sherrer. But Thacker's defenses were good in spurts (and terrible at other times.) Was it him? Was it the HC? Was it personnel? How much of an difference can Santucci really make by himself? We were in the 100s in DFEI under TFG. We were 38th in DFEI in 2022. (Why Thack, temporarily, kept his job.) Fell to 77th last year. The assistants are a complete toss up. Do they make a difference, good or bad? Do they not jive with some of our key players? Our upperclassmen have seen a lot of coaching turnover. Transitions are always difficult. There's going to be mistakes and growing pains from implementing a new system. We haven't had a lot of consistency. Long term, I think we are better situated with our staff. But is the change/transition a net benefit or detriment for this year? I'm not sure.
I can imagine a scenario where we leap back to the mid-30s in DFEI (Which, we were there in 2022, so it's not like we don't have the potential.) But that requires a lot to go right. Our margin for error is thin. Looks something like: Biggers and Lockett (both lost weight) have breakout years inside. Gore and van den Berg are good in rotation. Sylvain finally puts it all together. Height is a great pickup. A combination of Jacob Cruz (LB/DE) and Makius Scott (DT/DE) help fill the gaps at DE. Efford and Tatum are the second coming of Eley and Thomas. We find playmakers in the secondary. Santucci and the new assistants makes as big a difference as Buster and crew did for the Offense. Santucci fits his scheme to our players and presses the right buttons in playcalls. We stay healthy. The defense is solid enough to help the offense win games.
But more so, I see a scenario where the DTs are just ok. The DEs are a big weakness. We can't generate a pass rush or consistently stop the run. Efford is on an island. We don't have a solid #2 at LB and he's constantly trying to clean up for the front. The DBs are ok, but opposing QBs have all day to throw and they are under a lot of pressure. We see some progress as the year goes, but there's mistakes and busts from learning the new system. Santucci calls the right plays, but we can't consistently execute. Plus, we face a lot of really good offenses. Any key injuries (which will likely happen) and we'll be in trouble. The results are about the same as they have been.
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