How much can Santucci Improve the GT Defense?

[4shotB]

This is will be statistically impossible.

No way we can be a 30+ppg offense, improve on D and not be better record wise

As a former player I would like to get your take on GT’s ongoing struggles on D. We have turned over head coaches and multiple DC’s ever since Gailey’s time and the problem persists. It predates NIL and transfer portal. During this time we have had good to great O’s. I have seen multiple theories on this but welcome the input of someone who has been a part of the program.

 

[iceeater1969]

This is will be statistically impossible.

No way we can be a 30+ppg offense, improve on D and not be better record wise

A. IF
Ball is bounces funny. Tipped passes go other guys way. Other Coaches actually take a knee. Our coaches make a big mistake.

B.
But yea, if not A we should win 7 or more, with and some very impressive wins, and no really bad losses.

 

[Ibeeballin]

As a former player I would like to get your take on GT’s ongoing struggles on D. We have turned over head coaches and multiple DC’s ever since Gailey’s time and the problem persists. It predates NIL and transfer portal. During this time we have had good to great O’s. I have seen multiple theories on this but welcome the input of someone who has been a part of the program.

Pretty easy. We have not been sound at the fundamentals. Whether that’s taking on blocks, beating a block, tackling, alignment and assignment.

The CPJ years, you got scout teams not giving the best look bc of what they were asked to do in the scheme. Imagine being a pass rusher and the only time you see a legitimate kick slide is on Saturdays? That’s a tough ask

With Collins, it was a lot of trying to make guys fit his scheme and not vice versa. Add on being poor communicators and you get a bunch of chickens running with their head cut off

Turn on the Duke film and the first thing you see is guys flying to the ball and in position to make plays . Seeing Santucci do it with guys that were 3 stars or lightly recruited makes me feel confident believing we can see big turnaround this upcoming season

 

[takethepoints]

I've been thinking a lot about this the last couple weeks. I feel cautiously optimistic about the offense. I think the defense is going to be the difference between a solid year and a disappointing one. I want to believe the D can be much better. But I'm just not sure it's realistic for a quick turnaround.

The big problem is personnel. We needed to keep our best returning players and add from the portal/recruiting. We lost three of our best playmakers up front in Kennard, Douse and Kelly. We added from the portal. But numbers-wise just to replace those guys. I'm not sure we got any clear upgrades.

I feel ok about DT/NT. I like the pickups of Gore and van den Berg a lot. Biggers and Lockett have size and could break out for us. But I don't know that we have any playmakers here who are going to generate pressure or sacks. DE is going to be a problem. IMHO, we're going to really miss Kennard. We have no proven players and we're thin on numbers. We were bad at DE last year. I don't see the pieces in place for quick improvement. But there's always the chance of someone(s) breaking out in a big way. Harris looked good at times last year, but didn't generate TFLs or sacks. Height and Sylvain have ability, but need to progress and stay healthy. Could get help here from Jacob Cruz (listed at LB, but has DE size now) and Makius Scott (played as a big DE some last year and we're deeper at DT.)

At LB, Efford should be solid. We have a lot of bodies and young talent for 2 LB spots. But we need the next stars to emerge beside him. If Tren Tatum can put it together, we could have a solid duo. But he struggled last year. DB, could be the strength of the D. We lost a few playmakers. But we have a lot of versatile players and some experience. But we lost some starters and we need the next group to mature.

Coaching is a toss up. Santucci did good things at Duke, but was it him or Elko? I think he's probably an upgrade from Thacker/Sherrer. But Thacker's defenses were good in spurts (and terrible at other times.) Was it him? Was it the HC? Was it personnel? How much of an difference can Santucci really make by himself? We were in the 100s in DFEI under TFG. We were 38th in DFEI in 2022. (Why Thack, temporarily, kept his job.) Fell to 77th last year. The assistants are a complete toss up. Do they make a difference, good or bad? Do they not jive with some of our key players? Our upperclassmen have seen a lot of coaching turnover. Transitions are always difficult. There's going to be mistakes and growing pains from implementing a new system. We haven't had a lot of consistency. Long term, I think we are better situated with our staff. But is the change/transition a net benefit or detriment for this year? I'm not sure.

I can imagine a scenario where we leap back to the mid-30s in DFEI (Which, we were there in 2022, so it's not like we don't have the potential.) But that requires a lot to go right. Our margin for error is thin. Looks something like: Biggers and Lockett (both lost weight) have breakout years inside. Gore and van den Berg are good in rotation. Sylvain finally puts it all together. Height is a great pickup. A combination of Jacob Cruz (LB/DE) and Makius Scott (DT/DE) help fill the gaps at DE. Efford and Tatum are the second coming of Eley and Thomas. We find playmakers in the secondary. Santucci and the new assistants makes as big a difference as Buster and crew did for the Offense. Santucci fits his scheme to our players and presses the right buttons in playcalls. We stay healthy. The defense is solid enough to help the offense win games.

But more so, I see a scenario where the DTs are just ok. The DEs are a big weakness. We can't generate a pass rush or consistently stop the run. Efford is on an island. We don't have a solid #2 at LB and he's constantly trying to clean up for the front. The DBs are ok, but opposing QBs have all day to throw and they are under a lot of pressure. We see some progress as the year goes, but there's mistakes and busts from learning the new system. Santucci calls the right plays, but we can't consistently execute. Plus, we face a lot of really good offenses. Any key injuries (which will likely happen) and we'll be in trouble. The results are about the same as they have been.

All you say is true, but there's one more angle: Santucci is yet another DC. The players may have both their heads and their muscle memory confused and mistakes will probably happen. The summer practices might make a difference there, but maybe not.

Oth, when he was DC at Duke Santucci took personel who had been not much better then ours from a DFEI of 115 in 2021 to 54 in 2022. That may have been Elko, but it might be him. At any rate he's done it before: taken over D at a team that was struggling and turned it into a contender, especially on points allowed. That, as I keep saying here, is the only D stat that matters.

But we'll see soon enough.

 

[BCJacket]

Oth, when he was DC at Duke Santucci took personel who had been not much better then ours from a DFEI of 115 in 2021 to 54 in 2022. That may have been Elko, but it might be him. At any rate he's done it before: taken over D at a team that was struggling and turned it into a contender, especially on points allowed. That, as I keep saying here, is the only D stat that matters.

Santucci was the DC at Duke in 2023. Elko arrived in 2022. Robb Smith was the DC for him that year and they jumped from 115 to 54. Santucci came in last year and they further improved to 27th. But, was it Santucci or continued improvement from what Elko started in 2022? Personally, I'd credit Elko for much of it. 115 -> 54 -> 27 feels pretty linear.

But the play calling was good last year and Santucci is Elko's protégé, so maybe he can bring those same results here. Hopefully!

 

[stinger78]

Santucci was the DC at Duke in 2023. Elko arrived in 2022. Robb Smith was the DC for him that year and they jumped from 115 to 54. Santucci came in last year and they further improved to 27th. But, was it Santucci or continued improvement from what Elko started in 2022? Personally, I'd credit Elko for much of it. 115 -> 54 -> 27 feels pretty linear.

But the play calling was good last year and Santucci is Elko's protégé, so maybe he can bring those same results here. Hopefully!

I spoke to a HS football coach who is at a powerhouse program in the ATL area about 6 weeks ago. His players were being recruited by GT and his feeling was that the former D staff was not a good group, but that this D staff is very good. He was very positive coaching about the upgrades CBK has made on that side of the ball. His opinion is that GT should play and recruit better on D going forward. Let's hope so.

 

[iceeater1969]

During King post practice interview, he said defense is,giving offense,a go in practice.

Coach Key said he can hear the difference in field wide sound made by pads hitting

Also
Posting to drive " conference realignment" off first page of tech football

 

[takethepoints]

Santucci was the DC at Duke in 2023. Elko arrived in 2022. Robb Smith was the DC for him that year and they jumped from 115 to 54. Santucci came in last year and they further improved to 27th. But, was it Santucci or continued improvement from what Elko started in 2022? Personally, I'd credit Elko for much of it. 115 -> 54 -> 27 feels pretty linear.

But the play calling was good last year and Santucci is Elko's protégé, so maybe he can bring those same results here. Hopefully!

Yep, my bad. But … we don't know what kind of influence Santucci had oon the further jump. I'm hoping a lot.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Below is a nice article concerning GT's new Defensive Coordinator. Tech was near the bottom of all P4 Teams last year in terms of defensive statistics. Can Santucci improve our defense enough to get off the field and help the offense? Based on the article he seems like a good teacher. I believe we will make a significant jump in performance this season!

Yellow Jackets defense a ‘work in progress’ under Santucci

The narrative is that if Georgia Tech’s defense can vastly improve, thus allowing the team’s offense to continue to flourish, the Yellow Jackets could be that much better as a whole.

www.ajc.com

Question for experts: Of the three defensive linemen who left: Kennard, Douse, and Kelley which one will be the hardest to replace? I have watched just about all the 2023 games paying close attention to the defense. It seems to my untrained and decidedly amateurish eyes that Kennard was one of our best players on defense along with Efford towards the end of the year. I wonder if anyone sees that differently.

 

[awbuzz]

Seems like a good place to add this.

Georgia Tech’s defensive front retooled and refurbished

Georgia Tech’s defensive line has been retooled and refurbished this offseason, and it may be the key to the Yellow Jackets making any sort of improvement on defense in 2024.

www.ajc.com

 

[MtnWasp]

My impression of the last few seasons is that the defensive staff did not get much out of the talent that they had. I think that there have been enough horses to run a better race than they have.

If that impression is correct, then lopping off the head of the snake and an upgrade in staff could immediately push the needle substantially.

It is certainly one of the most intriguing aspects of the program going into the season.

 

[takethepoints]

I'm with Paul on this: all I want is three stops a game. We haven't done that recently and it needs to start. With what we have coming back on O if the D can get three stops we ought to be in every game. That's all I'm asking for this year; just enough of a opportunity for King and co. to have a chance to pull it out. Then it will depend on the breaks, just like last year.

Going forward I'd like to see some better. We'll see.

 

[BCJacket]

Question for experts: Of the three defensive linemen who left: Kennard, Douse, and Kelley which one will be the hardest to replace? I have watched just about all the 2023 games paying close attention to the defense. It seems to my untrained and decidedly amateurish eyes that Kennard was one of our best players on defense along with Efford towards the end of the year. I wonder if anyone sees that differently.

I'm not an expert. (But I did stay in a Holiday Inn once and read every preview and stats breakdown, because I'm a nerd.)

Kennard is the key loss of the three. All three were among our better players on the DL.

Douse would've been a depth piece at DT. Gore and van den Berg more than make up for his loss. I'm pretty high on Biggers and Lockett with the S&C work they put in. And Shymeik Jones and/or Jason Moore could have a breakout year.

DE, Kennard is a big loss. He was the only DL player listed in the team's top 10 by PFF grade last year. The DL sack leader. Really could've used him to build on. Kelly would've been good depth- he could break out this year for Mizzou. That's two big pieces we lost at the position we need the most improvement. I'm not as high on Romello Height as some others. (I'm skeptical of 1-year transfers overall.) But, he's talented and maybe the Tech's new coaches can help him put it all together in a big way. Kevin Harris was the second best DL per PFF. With the depth at DT, I think we see a lot of Makius Scott at end. But is he athletic enough at his size to help in the pass rush? Sylvain could be the breakout star and a great story if he can stay healthy. Hearing excitement about Fr Jordan Boyd. Jacob Cruz is listed as a 245lb LB, so he could potentially help as a standup rush end. But really hope we don't have to rely on Tr Fr and LBs at DE. (Unless they just win out in the competition.)

We'll see. We need a lot of players to step up and breakout if we're going to improve. Especially at DE in the pass rush.

 

[Root4GT]

My impression of the last few seasons is that the defensive staff did not get much out of the talent that they had. I think that there have been enough horses to run a better race than they have.

If that impression is correct, then lopping off the head of the snake and an upgrade in staff could immediately push the needle substantially.

It is certainly one of the most intriguing aspects of the program going into the season.

Key pretty much killed the whole Defensive "Snake" Staff. That was well deserved. We will see if it pays off in improved defensive play. We sure need it to!

 

[LT 1967]

Article in the AJC by Ginny Duffy concerning GT's new D line coach, Jess Simpson. Sounds like he has a good relationship with the players based on Quotes from Zeek Biggers and Makius Scott. Based on the article, he is highly detailed, and he seems to have the trust of his players. I found it interesting that Makius Scott was around Simpson when Scott was a ball boy for the Falcons at the same time that Simpson coached for the Falcons.

Georgia Tech assistant Jess Simpson: ‘I asked these guys to take a leap of faith’

Georgia Tech defensive line coach Jess Simpson seems excited about his first season on The Flats.

www.ajc.com

 

[ThatGuy]

Article in the AJC by Ginny Duffy concerning GT's new D line coach, Jess Simpson. Sounds like he has a good relationship with the players based on Quotes from Zeek Biggers and Makius Scott. Based on the article, he is highly detailed, and he seems to have the trust of his players. I found it interesting that Makius Scott was around Simpson when Scott was a ball boy for the Falcons at the same time that Simpson coached for the Falcons.

Georgia Tech assistant Jess Simpson: ‘I asked these guys to take a leap of faith’

Georgia Tech defensive line coach Jess Simpson seems excited about his first season on The Flats.

www.ajc.com

Yeah, I loved what I read in this article.

Part of it, though, involved the hairs on the back of my neck standing out when I thought of Al Groh - another coach who was basically an encyclopedia of defensive strategies, but who couldn't effectively convey that to his team in a way they could implement. The vibe I get from Jess Simpson, however, is that he not only has the know-how as far as DL strategies - but he also knows how to communicate it in a way that's digestible and presents a clear pathway to implementation.

If that's the case, then we have a potentially exciting defensive front on our hands.

 

[danny daniel]

Question for experts: Of the three defensive linemen who left: Kennard, Douse, and Kelley which one will be the hardest to replace? I have watched just about all the 2023 games paying close attention to the defense. It seems to my untrained and decidedly amateurish eyes that Kennard was one of our best players on defense along with Efford towards the end of the year. I wonder if anyone sees that differently.

On D Kennard was a very good player but we get Height and we get Sylvain back. Douse was a good player but we get Gore and Van Den Berg and Moore coming back. Those trades are in our favor. We lose Kelley. Overall either way. But we did improve a lot with the Safeties, LBs, and DBs coming in compared to what we lost. Offense is OK.

 

[MtnWasp]

It is always an interesting debate whether a bad defense is because of bad coaching or players who are not as good as the competition. It is probably a combination of the two in some ratio.

Now into my 5th decade of watching football but without any real expertise or analytics, I have a few key reads to prognosticate those defensive coordinators that make it versus those who don't:

My number one tell-tale sign of whether a defensive coordinator is going to stick or not is how closely the defensive backs cover the opposing receivers. It doesn't matter if the coverage is zone or man. It is something that can be seen even on TV. The wider the seams between receivers and defenders the less likely the defensive coordinator is going to stick.

It is not hard to tell if a pass defender knows his assignment and is just getting beat by a better player, whether he is just playing super conservative to not get beat deep versus a defender who is slow to figure out his assignment. In those schemes that are poorly assimilated by defenders, the receivers operate in wider and wider seams and don't need to make much of an effort to separate. If defenders seem like they are covering turf and not receivers, you know that they don't have a great grasp of the defense. When this is the dominating trend, then I take it to mean that the defensive coordinator has not successfully implemented his defense.

My second key to knowing that a DC is in trouble is if second level defenders are tipping off their gap assignments and blitzes pre-snap. If the opposing QBs can frequently get defenders to tip-off their play with cadence, then the defense is in trouble. I think it is possible to tell if the "tip-off" was an accident versus misdirection when the player goes to the same gap when the ball is snapped. It not only undermines run defense, but allows the offense to audible to a better play.

To defend Thacker a bit, being a Defensive Coordinator without a competent pass rush is a huge handicap. But I still think his pass defense looked overly conservative and clueless way too much of the time for me to believe that his players knew what the heck they were doing a lot of the time.

When defenders look lost, I think that speaks to coaching.

 

[TechPhi97]

Taking a purely data approach, you can look at what good coaching did to Duke from 2021 - 2023. Duke's defensive FEI performance improvement was impressive. They went from 113 -> 62 -> 27.

Georgia Tech was 77th in DFEI last year, but we faced the 24th hardest slate of offensive competitors. To answer the OP's question, it feels like good coaching could get us into the 40ish range (from 77 last year). Looking at what 40 vs. 77 means, it's about a 30% improvement in drives that end in a TD / FG Attempt. We gave up 30.9 PPG last year on defense, so a 30% improvement drops that to ~21 PPG.

Carrying that forward, If you think we can maintain a rank of 30 in OFEI and move to ~40 in DFEI, that puts us in the Top 25-30 programs. Range of wins is 7-9. The best team last year with a DFEI > 40 was Oregon State - they were ranked 16th overall due to their offense being ranked 11th. It should be noted that they ended up 8-5.

Lots of numbers here, but I did identify a rule of thumb. Group the final standings into 10's - Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, etc. What is the range of OFEI+DFEI rank that gets you in to those rankings?

To get into the Top "X" / You need a combined OFEI+DFEI Rank of:
Top 10 / 0 - 30
Top 20 / 25 - 60
Top 30 / 50 - 80
Top 40 / 70 - 90
Top 50 / 80 - 110

 

[TechPhi97]

^^^^ is why I'm saying that a Top 30 offense and a Top 40 defense gets us into the Top 30, maybe Top 25 given our schedule. To be a Top 20 team we're going to have to be a Top 15 offense.
IMO, these things are doable. We could certainly go the other way as well, but my gut tells me we're a Top 25 team this year.