How many wins for GT to earn a CFP berth?

[UgaBlows]

I know I’m veering off-topic, but I want to go on record that u(sic)ga will lose at least two regular season games this year.

Their schedule is pretty difficult, but I also think the new playoff structure will lead to more parity amongst the SEC and Big 10 teams - with many 10-2 or even 9-3 teams in the playoffs (along with just the ACC winner, Big 12 winner and Notre Dame).

I hope you’re right and Tech is one of those losses

 

[forensicbuzz]

At selection time uga, tOSU and FSU were not better than the four selected. None deserved a bid unless you're giving the ACC champ an automatic.

Disagree with this assertion.

 

[orientalnc]

Disagree with this assertion.

That's fine with me. You and I agree on more important things.

 

[MonroeJacket]

Looking at last year’s hypothetical…We’d have to go 11-2 with one of those loses being in the ACC title game. Louisville wouldn’t have made it last year at 10-3. MAYBE if we were 10-3 with close loses to elite playoff teams.

 

[CEB]

Looking at last year’s hypothetical…We’d have to go 11-2 with one of those loses being in the ACC title game. Louisville wouldn’t have made it last year at 10-3. MAYBE if we were 10-3 with close loses to elite playoff teams.

I agree… I don’t think 3 regular season losses is really a plausible path to the playoff for us.

But for grins…Playing out the original hypothetical with 3 regular season losses and knowing that we can’t be a conference champ, I think our best case would be to be left out of the ACCCG. I think a 4th loss in the ACCCG would be too much to overcome (and winning the ACCCG ruins the hypothetical).

Soooo….we lose CLOSE game to FSU to start the season, a close game to ND and a close game to uga (probably with the aid of some SEC-level BS officiating). Those would be the three “best” potential losses, regular season.
That puts us at 9-3 / 7-1 ACC.

FSU goes to the CCG and wins it. We would need them to play someone who had an easy route to a 7-1 ACC record (WF? Pitt? SMU?) and sneaks into CCG over us on essentially a coin flip. Everyone suspects we’re the better team, but we watch from home. FSU throttles the Team to be Named Later and the consensus of college football is that GT should’ve gotten the chance to rematch the Noles.

ND and uga (our only other losses) are a 1 loss team and a conference champ, respectively. Both are easily in the 12 team playoff.

Our losses look like this:
13-0 ACC Champ FSU
13-0 or 12-1 SEC Champ uga
11-1 ND (only loss to FSU)

We would still need help… (particularly no upsets in the BIG or B12 championships so no bids are stolen) but that’s maybe how we thread the needle on the hypothetical.

Disclaimer… if this is how GT gets in the playoff, I am all in. However, there is so much in this scenario that I would root against with every fiber of my being unless and until I am guaranteed that this is how GT gets in the playoff.

 

[roadkill]

I agree… I don’t think 3 regular season losses is really a plausible path to the playoff for us.

But for grins…Playing out the original hypothetical with 3 regular season losses and knowing that we can’t be a conference champ, I think our best case would be to be left out of the ACCCG. I think a 4th loss in the ACCCG would be too much to overcome (and winning the ACCCG ruins the hypothetical).

Soooo….we lose CLOSE game to FSU to start the season, a close game to ND and a close game to uga (probably with the aid of some SEC-level BS officiating). Those would be the three “best” potential losses, regular season.
That puts us at 9-3 / 7-1 ACC.

FSU goes to the CCG and wins it. We would need them to play someone who had an easy route to a 7-1 ACC record (WF? Pitt? SMU?) and sneaks into CCG over us on essentially a coin flip. Everyone suspects we’re the better team, but we watch from home. FSU throttles the Team to be Named Later and the consensus of college football is that GT should’ve gotten the chance to rematch the Noles.

ND and uga (our only other losses) are a 1 loss team and a conference champ, respectively. Both are easily in the 12 team playoff.

Our losses look like this:
13-0 ACC Champ FSU
13-0 or 12-1 SEC Champ uga
11-1 ND (only loss to FSU)

We would still need help… (particularly no upsets in the BIG or B12 championships so no bids are stolen) but that’s maybe how we thread the needle on the hypothetical.

Disclaimer… if this is how GT gets in the playoff, I am all in. However, there is so much in this scenario that I would root against with every fiber of my being unless and until I am guaranteed that this is how GT gets in the playoff.

I don't think we would get in either way, but an easier scenario similar to the one you've described might be instead of losing to FSU, ND, and uga, we lost to say, Miami, but beat uga or ND, and were their only losses. That would look better on our resume.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I don't think we would get in either way, but an easier scenario similar to the one you've described might be instead of losing to FSU, ND, and uga, we lost to say, Miami, but beat uga or ND, and were their only losses. That would look better on our resume.

If we lose two or three ACC games, it is unlikely we get in the CFP. Especially, if there 2-3 teams ahead of us in the ACC. The ACC is not getting more than two teams at the most and probably only one team given the infatuation with the SEC and B10.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

You know what looks good on a resume? Being a member of the SEC or BIG with 2 or less losses or 3 losses to top tier teams. No way any other conference is getting a 2nd team in under this current model. Once it expands again to 24plus then all of us can go back to our dreams of scenarios to get us in. Until then the ACC path is simple - win the ACCCG.

 

[stinger78]

If we lose two or three ACC games, it is unlikely we get in the CFP. Especially, if there 2-3 teams ahead of us in the ACC. The ACC is not getting more than two teams at the most and probably only one team given the infatuation with the SEC and B10.

Unfortunately, I think you are correct.