How many wins for GT to earn a CFP berth?

[AugustaSwarm]

They established last season that the purpose of the CFP is money generation, not determining a true champion. Why would that change with more teams? I have no idea how many games GT must win to get into that playoff.

It just becomes easier to hide with more teams. The objective has ALWAYS been money.

 

[Thwg777]

I think the point of the picture was trying to provide a hypothetical selection based on fairness that flat out doesn’t exist.

For an at large berth (non-conference winner), I’ll double down that the answer is 12 RSW wins needed for an at large berth - for any team non P2 and not entering the season in the top 25 popularity contest.

Betting markets aren’t perfect but it’s closer to reality than typing words on the internet. Of the 12 teams with shortest odds to make the playoffs, 6 are SEC, 4 are Big 10, ND and one ACC. (And the 13th team is SEC too).

 

[billga99]

I think the point of the picture was trying to provide a hypothetical selection based on fairness that flat out doesn’t exist.

For an at large berth (non-conference winner), I’ll double down that the answer is 12 RSW wins needed for an at large berth - for any team non P2 and not entering the season in the top 25 popularity contest.

Betting markets aren’t perfect but it’s closer to reality than typing words on the internet. Of the 12 teams with shortest odds to make the playoffs, 6 are SEC, 4 are Big 10, ND and one ACC. (And the 13th team is SEC too).

There is a difference between preseason polls and end of the season. SEC and Big 10 will always get the bulk of the preseason hype. But almost always some are overrated and they will fall out of the Top 12. Primarily because there is such a bias to do preseason rankings based on how teams finished the year before (as a case in point, 9 of the top 12 2024 predictions ranked in final top 12 in 2023 in bold - 3 new are Notre Dame, Penn St and TN who are all favorite children). By the way, the 3 who finished in Top 12 in 2023 and not in 2024 are all ranked in Top 18 for 2024. So where you finish has a huge impact on next seasons pre-season ranking even though with NFL draft and transfers teams normally have a lot of turnover. Which is the reason no rankings should come out for several weeks (which will never happen due to the hype preseason rankings have for rabid college football fans).

Here is one poll preseason for 2023:

1 UGA, 2 Michigan, 3 Oh. St, 4 Alabama, 5 Penn St, 6 LSU, 7 FSU, 8 USC, 9 Washington, 10 TCU, 11 Utah, 12 TN

Final AP 2023

1 MIchigan, 2 Washington, 3 Texas, 4 UGA, 5 Alabama, 6 Oregon, 7 FSU, 8 Missouri, 9 Ole Miss, 10 Ohio St, 11 Arizona (3 losses), 12 LSU (3 Losses)

So they missed on 5 of the 12. And that is probably normal. Based on this final, 12 team playoffs in 2023 (using 2024 conference affiliations) would be SEC 6 teams, Big 10 4 teams, ACC 1 team, Big 12 1 team. So though the mix definitely changes the reality is the Big 2 is still predicted to dominate as stated above.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

We are in a new paradigm because now 5-12 matters. You will see this in the polls especially the 2nd half of the season as they manipulate them. Anyone who is using anything regarding polls from the past doesn’t understand what is happening. Look at what they did to FSU. That was intentional and proved it’s the BIG/SEC controlling the committee. They weaponized an injury to steal from the ACC and pad the BIG/SEC (all 4 teams picked are from these 2 conferences). That was an accident.

Now that 5-12 matters they will keep anyone who is a threat to their money down in the polls. I actually respect their out in the open tactics. They know the commissioners of the other leagues are either just powerless or along for the ride until they get hired by one of the big 2. I’m calling it now - the only team who has any chance to make the 12 team playoff outside of the auto qualifier who is not in the BIG/SEC is Notre Dame because they are the only outside entity who still has some power. And they’d have to have 1 loss to the ACC Champ to get in.

 

[roadkill]

Very rarely does the second-place ACC team get ranked in the top 12 by the playoff committee. A lot depends on who you beat and when. We did it in 2014 with wins over Clemson and then 9th-ranked uga at the end of the season. Even then they just bumped us up to 12th, although we finished 8th in the AP. So I want to say it's possible, but very unlikely. 3 regular-season losses would probably knock us out, unless we somehow still managed to beat the expected best teams (FSU, ND, uga) on our schedule.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Very rarely does the second-place ACC team get ranked in the top 12 by the playoff committee. A lot depends on who you beat and when. We did it in 2014 with wins over Clemson and then 9th-ranked uga at the end of the season. Even then they just bumped us up to 12th, although we finished 8th in the AP. So I want to say it's possible, but very unlikely. 3 regular-season losses would probably knock us out, unless we somehow still managed to beat the expected best teams (FSU, ND, uga) on our schedule.

The problem with that is they did that when it didn’t matter. And they still only put us at 12. Now, that the 12th ranking is attached to millions there is zero chance any team like GT would be slotted there. Any team not in the BIG or SEC has one avenue to a 12 team playoff - the auto qualifier.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I doubt we get an at large unless we have at least ten wins with Uga one of them. Our best chance for us to get into the playoff is to win the ACC Championship game.

 

[MusicalBuzz]

It feels like the right time to remind how utterly ridiculous and absolutely un-American it is to have a very small group of selected individuals — behind closed doors and without any transcript or trail of communications —make a determination of this consequence. I truly do not understand why there isn’t a unified outcry about a “committee”. It’s [long past] time to bring back the BCS model for selection. And to preempt some responses in last year’s thread on this topic, while I’ll allow there are some rogue journalists, or some coaches who don’t prepare, or that some computer models favor some outputs over others — the aggregate of voices and perspectives washes the outliers. And for a school like Tech .. we need this.

 

[sonngy]

Not gonna lie, I feel like some of the posters here have the wrong mentality for thinking that the only feasible way we can make the CFP this year is if we win the ACC. 1. It goes without saying that if we win the ACC, we are in. That’s how auto bids work. 2. It pains me to say it but having Uga in the schedule (especially in the end) means that we can afford to lose 1 more game than the rest of the ACC since winning that game will give us enough credit across the media to warrant a spot. So with 3 losses (but with wins against fsu, ND, and Uga who finish strong/ranked), I absolutely think we have a legitimate shot to get ranked 12. This is assuming that the 3 losses are close and not blow outs.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Not gonna lie, I feel like some of the posters here have the wrong mentality for thinking that the only feasible way we can make the CFP this year is if we win the ACC. 1. It goes without saying that if we win the ACC, we are in. That’s how auto bids work. 2. It pains me to say it but having Uga in the schedule (especially in the end) means that we can afford to lose 1 more game than the rest of the ACC since winning that game will give us enough credit across the media to warrant a spot. So with 3 losses (but with wins against fsu, ND, and Uga who finish strong/ranked), I absolutely think we have a legitimate shot to get ranked 12. This is assuming that the 3 losses are close and not blow outs.

In what possible scenario do we have three losses, but wins against FSU, Uga, and ND? Clemson, Miami, and another ACC team? If so, that would put us 3rd or 4th in the conference and there is no way we get an at large bid.

 

[sonngy]

In what possible scenario do we have three losses, but wins against FSU, Uga, and ND? Clemson, Miami, and another ACC team? If so, that would put us 3rd or 4th in the conference and there is no way we get an at large bid.

Clemson ended up being ranked top 20 last year despite being 6th in the ACC with their 3 best wins coming from ND, South Carolina, and us

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Clemson ended up being ranked top 20 last year despite being 6th in the ACC with their 3 best wins coming from ND, South Carolina, and us

There was one ACC team in the top 12 prior to the bowl game. Louisville and NC State were not in the top 12 despite only having three losses. Also, Clemson has built up a lot goodwill over the years with voters that we do not have plus had beat UNC and Kentucky.

However, since Clemson would not have been an at large bid, how is it even relevant to my question?

 

[sonngy]

There was one ACC team in the top 12 prior to the bowl game. Louisville and NC State were not in the top 12 despite only having three losses. Also, Clemson has built up a lot goodwill over the years with voters that we do not have plus had beat UNC and Kentucky.

However, since Clemson would not have been an at large bid, how is it even relevant to my question?

My point is that Clemson ended up being top 20 with only mediocre wins to show for it so it stands to reason that if we had 3 marquee wins with UGA, ND and FSU, then we would absolutely be in the conversation for being top 12. For your other point regarding Louisville and NC State, they don’t play the best team in the nation (uGA) annually like we do, so they wouldn’t have the resume to make the argument to be ranked higher. This actually applies to all other ACC teams for that matter. Also, Clemson lost to Kentucky.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

My point is that Clemson ended up being top 20 with only mediocre wins to show for it so it stands to reason that if we had 3 marquee wins with UGA, ND and FSU, then we would absolutely be in the conversation for being top 12. For your other point regarding Louisville and NC State, they don’t play the best team in the nation (uGA) annually like we do, so they wouldn’t have the resume to make the argument to be ranked higher. This actually applies to all other ACC teams for that matter. Also, Clemson lost to Kentucky.

They did?

2023 Clemson Tigers football team - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

You can believe what you want to believe but there is no way we lose three games and make an at large bid.

 

[sonngy]

They did?

2023 Clemson Tigers football team - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

You can believe what you want to believe but there is no way we lose three games and make an at large bid.

Good catch, looks like I confused them with Lville. Either way, my overall point is that beating uGA (the presumed 1 seed) provides us grace for an extra loss elsewhere in the schedule. This literally happened with Bama last year.

 

[Sean311]

We are winning 9 this year. Mark it down. 11 seed

 

[WreckinGT]

No ACC team will ever make the playoffs with 9 wins. I doubt any teams other than FSU and Clemson could even make it with 10 wins. We would need 11. It’s going to be pretty rare for the ACC to get more than one bid.

 

[Lil G]

No ACC team will ever make the playoffs with 9 wins. I doubt any teams other than FSU and Clemson could even make it with 10 wins. We would need 11. It’s going to be pretty rare for the ACC to get more than one bid.

This.
The favoring will be worse than ever before to try to squeeze the P2 in

I know this because they jumped Texas and Alabama 4 spots at the last second for no reason (no reason that would have been acceptable in the last 40 years)

 

[Thwg777]

Any team not in the BIG or SEC has one avenue to a 12 team playoff - the auto qualifier.

Except Notre Dame.

 

[stech81]

Except Notre Dame.

But fact is Notre Dame is not an ACC team in football, so it would not help the ACC ,