GT favored over UVA

[takethepoints]

Imo, long needs to open up the running game.

FIFY. By Sims, of course.

 

[slugboy]

UVA's SBNation Blog has a good looking preview of the game, https://www.streakingthelawn.com/20...big-preview-tony-elliott-armstrong-jeff-simms

Their OL looks bad. They have some good receivers. Their running game was having issues, and if we're lucky they'll have more of them tonight. We're good against the run.

On their defense--they're good for sacks. Here are some stats from SI.*

• Virginia is currently tied for 3rd in the FBS with 7 fumbles recovered
• UVA has forced 9 turnovers, 28th in the FBS and tied for 3rd in the ACC
• Virginia has 15 sacks, 3rd in the ACC and 18th in the FBS
• Chico Bennett Jr. has the 2nd-most sacks in the ACC with 4
• Nick Jackson is 3rd in the ACC in total tackles with 51
• Fentrell Cypress II has the 2nd-most pass breakups and passes defended in the ACC with 6
• Keytaon Thompson has the 2nd-most receptions in the ACC with 32
• Lavel Davis Jr. continues to be the ACC's leader in average yards per reception. His 24.1 yards per catch (241 yards on 10 receptions) is 2nd-best in the nation and best in all of Power Five football

The stats are from 10 days ago. They have a more "positionless" defense than we do, and have a hybrid Edge/LB called a "Bandit". You can read about that here. Chico Bennett used to play here, and now he plays there. Hopefully we did a lot of work on blocking, because that seems like a rough matchup--them getting lots of sacks vs us giving up sacks.

If you see UVA as a team where the defense plays a good game but the offense doesn’t show up, and it feels like looking in the mirror at our team, I understand. They have one of the worst scoring offenses in FBS. Their scoring defense is average. Their rushing offense is below average for the ACC. Their passing offense is actually worse by the numbers. They have good receivers. Armstrong has been sacked 19 times. Sims has been sacked 18 times. They've had an easier schedule than us.

The main stories of the game (to me):

• Can we protect the ball and keep Sims unsacked?
• Can we get into the backfield and disrupt their offense?
• Can we cover punts?

Our big problem has been efficiency. We've made big plays. We "lost" the game against Pitt except for 6 plays, but those 6 plays were awesome (we played well overall, but big plays made the difference for us, and Pitt is a very good team). UVA is the kind of team that will crack if you keep at them, so we want to make sure we get a lot of shots--keep the ball, get first downs, and so forth.

UVA isn't as good as Duke, but they're better at getting at the QB, and we're not good at protecting. Their front 6 is a bad matchup for us (unless we figured out our blocking over the last 10 days).

On defense, if we can do two things--1. create havoc in their backfield and 2. keep UVA players in front of us in the secondary--good things should happen. Discipline is key.

We should win, but this is a trap game.

EDIT: From the Rumble Seat has an advanced stats preview. The summary is that our defense should hold up really well against their offense, but our offense doesn't match up well. If Sims is there and highly mobile, that's an edge for us. Riley Leonard (who is "sneaky fast" not fast at all but picks up yards when you're not looking) got a ton of yards against UVA, and Louisville's backup got a lot of yards too.

*SI used to be "the" place to read about sports. It also used to be Sports Illustrated, and was awesome.

 

[RamblinRed]

They are not a good team (haven't beaten a P5 opponent), but we are not good enough to overlook them. But we should win.

Our O vs their D is sort of an interesting matchup. Their run D is not very good, but their passing D (both in terms of rushing the passer and covering targets is pretty good).
What was most interesting to me is that their D has been good at not giving up alot of big plays, but it tends to allow alot of solid gains. GT's O has been better at producing big plays than at sustaining drives through shorter gains. Hopefully we can run alot against them and not have to rely on making big pass plays.

I'd like to see no mistakes in our ST play.
We also have been incredibly good with TO - we only have 4 for the whole season. I'm sort of dreading that game where we turn the ball over 3 times. Pitt could have been that game but we got lucky there. I feel like we will end up being one of the best TO margin teams, but pretty much every team has that game eventually where TO's bite them. Hoping that is not tonight for us.

I feel like GT should win this game by multiple scores, but we'll see once the game gets going.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

They are not a good team (haven't beaten a P5 opponent), but we are not good enough to overlook them. But we should win.

Our O vs their D is sort of an interesting matchup. Their run D is not very good, but their passing D (both in terms of rushing the passer and covering targets is pretty good).
What was most interesting to me is that their D has been good at not giving up alot of big plays, but it tends to allow alot of solid gains. GT's O has been better at producing big plays than at sustaining drives through shorter gains. Hopefully we can run alot against them and not have to rely on making big pass plays.

I'd like to see no mistakes in our ST play.
We also have been incredibly good with TO - we only have 4 for the whole season. I'm sort of dreading that game where we turn the ball over 3 times. Pitt could have been that game but we got lucky there. I feel like we will end up being one of the best TO margin teams, but pretty much every team has that game eventually where TO's bite them. Hoping that is not tonight for us.

I feel like GT should win this game by multiple scores, but we'll see once the game gets going.

There were analytics posted earlier this thread that show us 110th in explosive drives, so I am not sure about our ability to produce big plays. Our offense is actually designed to move the ball in small increments across the field, so it looks like we should match up well against UVA as long as we do not commit penalties and turnovers. If stay on schedule on down and distance, we should be able to sustain time consuming drives and rack up some points. So, stay focused, no pre snap penalties, protect the ball, and punch it in when you get to the red zone. Oh, and better blocking and coverage on our punts.

 

[MWBATL]

There were analytics posted earlier this thread that show us 110th in explosive drives, so I am not sure about our ability to produce big plays. Our offense is actually designed to move the ball in small increments across the field, so it looks like we should match up well against UVA as long as we do not commit penalties and turnovers.

Key to the game right there.....

 

[bobongo]

Brennan Armstrong hasn't been his old self this year, but he's overdue to snap out of it. Need to get after him back there. He gets pressured into some bad throws (7 interceptions) and has a porous OL.
But if he has time, he's trouble.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Brennan Armstrong hasn't been his old self this year, but he's overdue to snap out of it. Need to get after him back there. He gets pressured into some bad throws (7 interceptions) and has a porous OL.
But if he has time, he's trouble.

UVA's offensive problems are most likely due to overhaul on the OL as well Elliott installing his offense while the team is resisting his efforts as they try to hold on to what was successful for them last year. I am not sure this can be fixed.

 

[MidtownJacket]

UVA's offensive problems are most likely due to overhaul on the OL as well Elliott installing his offense while the team is resisting his efforts as they try to hold on to what was successful for them last year. I am not sure this can be fixed.

I hope it can't be fixed till next weekend. I have always liked UVA (except when we play them); so hope they go on a tear post us.

Agree with hoping we see some more blitzes than normal in the first few series. Sending CT3, ACE, KW on alternating snaps is a lot to handle for any OL; throw in the occasionally Kennard or Collins Edge Pressure and we may be on to something!

 

[alagold]

This is a great test for Key on his coaching ability.We are a 4 pt favorites.Can we improve/upgrade the the team in the off week to beat the line? or are have we just been on a "honeymoon" and reality comes back?

 

[slugboy]

This is a great test for Key on his coaching ability.We are a 4 pt favorites.Can we improve/upgrade the the team in the off week to beat the line? or are have we just been on a "honeymoon" and reality comes back?

Key and Tony Elliot have both been trying to make a year’s worth of coaching in 10 days. Elliot has one more assistant helping him than Key does.

It'll be interesting

 

[tmhunter52]

Disappointed to see the return of “Bad” Tech tonight.

 

[lv20gt]

Disappointed to see the return of “Bad” Tech tonight.

The reality is it isn't a return. People just kidded themselves into believing in a miracle over night transformation.

 

[dcall]

The reality is it isn't a return. People just kidded themselves into believing in a miracle over night transformation.

Big no. There is no kidding about the past two wins and the execution. Our defense is playing their tail off right now and chip long is trying his best to get the offense generating something. What is happening in this game is you are seeing why Jeff Sims is our starter. Our QB room is atrocious

 

[lv20gt]

Big no. There is no kidding about the past two wins and the execution. Our defense is playing their tail off right now and chip long is trying his best to get the offense generating something. What is happening in this game is you are seeing why Jeff Sims is our starter. Our QB room is atrocious

That has been the story most of the year.

Defense plays their tail off until they get worn down while offense does nothing literally describes the first game of the year.

The win last week saw all the same things we saw when Collins was still here. Punting issues, untimely penalties helping the opponent, poor red zone execution, unaggressive play calling, questionable TO usage. All of it. But playing Duke meant we could eek out a win instead of losing like in the other games.

We may win this game, and I'm sure if we do people will chirp bout the resiliency and blah blah blah, but this isn't a different team than it was under Collins like people wanted to pretend. It was just playing worse teams, and a fluke game against Pitt when they refused to catch some INTS.

 

[iceeater1969]

Big no. There is no kidding about the past two wins and the execution. Our defense is playing their tail off right now and chip long is trying his best to get the offense generating something. What is happening in this game is you are seeing why Jeff Sims is our starter. Our QB room is atrocious

We got Gibson the transfer qb and Gibson the #32 offensive tackle recruit in a pacjage deal

 

[dcall]

We got Gibson the transfer qb and Gibson the #32 offensive tackle recruit in a pacjage deal

Ok that's great but can you honestly watch him right now and say that he's playing at any caliber close to that?

 

[dcall]

That has been the story most of the year.

Defense plays their tail off until they get worn down while offense does nothing literally describes the first game of the year.

The win last week saw all the same things we saw when Collins was still here. Punting issues, untimely penalties helping the opponent, poor red zone execution, unaggressive play calling, questionable TO usage. All of it. But playing Duke meant we could eek out a win instead of losing like in the other games.

We may win this game, and I'm sure if we do people will chirp bout the resiliency and blah blah blah, but this isn't a different team than it was under Collins like people wanted to pretend. It was just playing worse teams, and a fluke game against Pitt when they refused to catch some INTS.

Ok buddy. Go jackets

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Everyone associated with our offense should be ashamed of themselves All should be banned from stepping on a football field. The OL blocked no one. The receivers dropped easy passes. The quarterback play was atrocious. An complete embarrassment against a below average defense. Pathetic!

 

[yeti92]

Everyone associated with our offense should be ashamed of themselves All should be banned from stepping on a football field. The OL blocked no one. The receivers dropped easy passes. The quarterback play was atrocious. An complete embarrassment against a below average defense. Pathetic!

I'm not sure there was any bit of the offense that could have their play rated good tonight. Honestly one of the worst offensive performances I've seen in person.