GT favored over UVA

[Thwg777]

Indications so far is that more money is on UVA as some 3’s are popping up. I like GT -3 a lot more than -3.5 since I hate the hook…

We have not faired well as a favorite in recent history. I don’t see ‘rat poison’ here (it most certainly was against NIU last year…). My speculation for the UVA money is that it’s more of a combination of macro trends (Thursday night football in college tends to fair better for underdogs) and potential GT regression since our last two games looked so much better than the first four.

I’m not sure how well models account for major mid-season coaching changes which hopefully better explains our improved performance over statistical noise.

 

[slugboy]

It depends whether you look at the entire season, or just the past three weeks. Our losses to Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF were really bad. Especially the Ole Miss blowout loss.

Also, Duke lost to UNC, which devalues that win a little.

If we improve on our games at Pitt and Duke, then this is a game we should be favored in by a lot. If we're the same team that played Ole Miss, or we have the punt unit we had against Clemson, then UVA looks better.

Rk​

Team

Rec​

FBS​

FEI​

OFEI​

Rk​

DFEI​

Rk​

NDE​

Rk​

NPD​

Rk​

NAY​

Rk​

NPP​

Rk​

ELS​

Rk​

GLS​

Rk​

ALS​

Rk​

83​

Virginia​

2-4​

1-4​

-.25​

-.37​

97​

-.19​

82​

-.98​

104​

-1.00​

104​

-.114​

97​

-1.07​

103​

.14​

86​

.96​

68​

2.72​

47​

84​

Georgia Tech​

3-3​

2-3​

-.26​

-.26​

90​

.01​

57​

-.81​

96​

-1.05​

106​

-.117​

100​

-.41​

71​

.49​

30​

1.93​

10​

3.74​

4​

 

[RamblinRed]

I expect GT to be favored against both VA schools.
Miami may be a toss up.
underdogs in the other 3 road games.

FWIW, in my own ACC rankings I have UNC at #3, FSU #5, GT #7, Miami #11, VT #13, UVA #14.
Based on our remaining schedule I have GT going 3-3.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Getting slightly back on topic, I will be at BDS Thursday night against the hoos. I’m a bball season ticket holder, but this will be my first football game in several seasons. I think my last game was about 4 or so years ago. I have no idea where I’ll be sitting, because I’m going with an uncle and 2 cousins that happen to be wahoo fans (uncle is uva alum), and they got the tickets. I feel kinda guilty that I’ll be outnumbered 3:1 in my own party… I apologize. Hopefully the rest of BDS will be full of yellow jackets.

I do not recall UVA traveling that well in the past. Someone more familiar with ACC schools can break it down but it always seemed to me that other than Clemson, the only teams that brought a lot of fans from ACC schools were FSU and for some reason, NC State. Could be wrong about that though. Back in the day, Auburn and Tennessee always brought huge numbers, the bastards were everywhere.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

VPISU and UVA are bad on offense and average on defense, kind of like us. Given our improvement under Key, we should win both games. Da U is about average on both offense and defense. So, that should be a winnable game, but we will be dogs. FSU is slightly above average on both offense and defense and will be tough game for us. UNC is "elite" on offense and horrendous on defense. The question is can we score enough to keep up with them. ugag will be a blowout loss.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I expect GT to be favored against both VA schools.
Miami may be a toss up.
underdogs in the other 3 road games.

FWIW, in my own ACC rankings I have UNC at #3, FSU #5, GT #7, Miami #11, VT #13, UVA #14.
Based on our remaining schedule I have GT going 3-3.

To think, I bought into the hype that the U was back. Should have known better. On the Miami board, one wisenheimer posted that Miami fans are like the absolute worst travel ball parents he had to endure as a baseball coach. That said, there is plenty of talent on that team. Enough to blow Tech right out of the game in the first half...or lose in the most ridiculous fashion like they almost managed to do last year.

 

[RamblinRed]

To think, I bought into the hype that the U was back. Should have known better. On the Miami board, one wisenheimer posted that Miami fans are like the absolute worst travel ball parents he had to endure as a baseball coach. That said, there is plenty of talent on that team. Enough to blow Tech right out of the game in the first half...or lose in the most ridiculous fashion like they almost managed to do last year.

I bought into it to, but the production on the field has been pretty abysmal.
Their offense has been a shell of what I expected it to be going into the season.

Been an interesting year though for teams that changed coaches. Many are performing well below what they were doing last year.

 

[mriordan]

Anything on Sims health?

Are White Outs still allowed?

 

[slugboy]

The spread is 3. SP+ has Tech by 2, UVA covering the three point spread, and likes the over (45.5 is the o/u, and the guess is for a 28-26 win)

Other stat forecasts also have a close game. “It comes down to who wants it more and makes the plays”

More seriously, if we win big, it’s evidence that we turned the corner after Key took over. If it’s close, maybe we got to the easier part of the season.

I hope it’s a big win.

 

[iceeater1969]

Key said even though Armstrong has not impressed, he is a very dangerous qb with long WR.

Would love to see the ol be competent and see a shoot out.

 

[ThatGuy]

Y’all can count on me

We want pics, Garth!

 

[GT33]

Where's Cav Man?

 

[fairweatherhater]

Indications so far is that more money is on UVA as some 3’s are popping up. I like GT -3 a lot more than -3.5 since I hate the hook…

We have not faired well as a favorite in recent history. I don’t see ‘rat poison’ here (it most certainly was against NIU last year…). My speculation for the UVA money is that it’s more of a combination of macro trends (Thursday night football in college tends to fair better for underdogs) and potential GT regression since our last two games looked so much better than the first four.

I’m not sure how well models account for major mid-season coaching changes which hopefully better explains our improved performance over statistical noise.

I would put more of this on the recent AJC article discussing Sims maybe possibly not being 100%.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Tech opens as a 3.5 point favorite at home versus Virginia. When was the last time we were favored over an P5 team?

I don't know what to make of this. Both teams sport identical 3-3 records on the year (edit. UVA is 2-4 an unimpressive 2-4 at that) College Football News has UVA pegged at #74 in the nation with Tech #56 (I think). Their panel of experts that made predictions on this game including several who cover ACC teams ALL picked Tech to win. Maybe its being at home, maybe its because Tech is coming off a bye week, maybe its the win over Duke but they seem confident that Tech will win. I am bewildered that Armstrong has seemingly regressed from his break out season but then I remember he lost his outstanding offensive line from last year and the coaching change. Give this guy time and he will eat us alive. Pressure is critical. I think it will be close either way.

 

[slugboy]

I don't know what to make of this. Both teams sport identical 3-3 records on the year (edit. UVA is 2-4 an unimpressive 2-4 at that) College Football News has UVA pegged at #74 in the nation with Tech #56 (I think). Their panel of experts that made predictions on this game including several who cover ACC teams ALL picked Tech to win. Maybe its being at home, maybe its because Tech is coming off a bye week, maybe its the win over Duke but they seem confident that Tech will win. I am bewildered that Armstrong has seemingly regressed from his break out season but then I remember he lost his outstanding offensive line from last year and the coaching change. Give this guy time and he will eat us alive. Pressure is critical. I think it will be close either way.

I’d say it means Vegas thinks the gambling community is evenly split, with a razor-thin nod to Tech being better, and three points for home-field advantage. The Tech that showed up in the first four games is being considered just as much as the one in the last two games.
Also, Tech let Duke come back from 17-6 down and eked out a win in OT. Our special teams almost gave away the game again. We haven't shown that we can bury an opponent yet. Based on the over/under, they're thinking it's something like a 24-21 game (which would go over).
So, yeah, they "don't believe in us".

 

[slugboy]

If you can figure out the navigation at https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/comparison-tool (pick GT and UVA in the middle selector, and 2022 in the first one), you can see the Beta Rank comparison between UVA and GT. Rob Bowron forecasts Tech as nearly a touchdown favorite, mainly because of our defense.
Other views have GT with a very good pass defense, and an average run defense, while UVA has a very good run defense matching up with our weak passing game.
I can't fit the entire chart in--it just doesn't export the whole thing. Sorry.

GT Defense vs UVA Offense

GT Offense vs UVA Defense

 

[iceeater1969]

Wow, what a great display of historical data.

 

[bobongo]

If you can figure out the navigation at https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/comparison-tool (pick GT and UVA in the middle selector, and 2022 in the first one), you can see the Beta Rank comparison between UVA and GT. Rob Bowron forecasts Tech as nearly a touchdown favorite, mainly because of our defense.
Other views have GT with a very good pass defense, and an average run defense, while UVA has a very good run defense matching up with our weak passing game.
I can't fit the entire chart in--it just doesn't export the whole thing. Sorry.

GT Defense vs UVA Offense

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GT Offense vs UVA Defense
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The point spread still hasn't quite caught up to the newly rejuvenated Jackets.
One more week for that, and we should cover as long as we haven't started reading our press clippings. Hopefully Key has those locked up somewhere out of sight.

 

[LongforDodd]

Key said even though Armstrong has not impressed, he is a very dangerous qb with long WR.

Would love to see the ol be competent and see a shoot out.

Thier offense seems night/day different. Armstrong was very, very good last year. Does their OL stink this year?

 

[85Escape]

@slugboy I'm struggling a bit with the Beta statistics, particularly some of the supporting factors that go into the overall calculation. And by struggling I mean "I don't grok it". Specifically, the Defensive/Offensive Play Efficiency. The blog he wrote said it was to correct for how effective a team is at performing well even when other things don't predict it. I assumed it was a 'clutch' metric. So when our defense has a "1" score and their offense has a "104" score...how should I read that?