GT (+7) vs. Miss St.

[iggymcfly]

Well, the sample pool is a little small to make these kind of statements. I will offer this as a counter to your opinion: Bammer struggled a good bit with WVU despite them being an "also ran" in the Big 12 losing half their games.

They didn't lose half of their games. They went 5-4 in conference and only lost to one team all year outside the Top 15.

Auburn was outplayed by KSU even though they ended up winning the game.

As mmbt0ne pointed out, Auburn controlled the game and deserved to win. On the road against a Top 15 team. Acting like this is anything but a big feather in the cap for a team who went 4-4 in SEC play is ridiculous.

LSU was behind all day to Wisconsin before the BADGERS tanked. That's right, the same Wisconsin team that just got drubbed by OSU 59-0.

Oh, gotcha! The 4-4 team from the SEC just BARELY beat the 7-1 team from another power conference. Horrors!

IMHO, their strategy has always been to preserve the myth by avoiding tough games out of conference while beating their chest about how great they are. This is another year where that happened, along with the unrelenting support from the press. You can look at any other division in cfb and they will have played more quality OOC games than the SEC WEST. In any case, they will have their chance to prove themselves in a few weeks. If they mop the floor with every opponent they face in the post season, I will recant my position. However, I am willing to bet "the best division in the history of football" loses about as many as they win and end up around .500.

Well, I mean they're obviously not gonna win all of their games because that would be ridiculous, especially after getting a record 12 teams bowl eligible, but they're definitely strong favorites to do extremely well this bowl season. Here are the betting lines:

Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State
LSU -7.5 vs. Notre Dame
Florida -7 vs. East Carolina
Miss. State -7 vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia -7 vs. Louisville
Auburn -6 vs. Wisconsin
Arkansas -6 vs. Texas
Missouri -6 vs. Minnesota
Tennessee -3.5 vs. Iowa
South Carolina +1 vs. Miami
Ole Miss +3 vs. TCU
Texas A&M +3.5 vs. West Virginia

Despite having far and away the most bowl eligible teams of any conference, getting 12 of their 14 teams in, the SEC is still favored to win 9/12 bowl matchups, and is favored in all 8 games where the line is 6 points or higher.

 

[iggymcfly]

Just because I'm bored, thought I'd look over this claim:

You can look at any other division in cfb and they will have played more quality OOC games than the SEC WEST.

ACC Coastal: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 20-10
ACC Atlantic: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non=conference record of 22-6
Big Ten West: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 20-8
Big Ten East: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 22-6
Pac-12 North: 1 game vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 15-4
Pac-12 South: 0 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 16-2
SEC East: 6 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 20-7
SEC West: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 28-0

So it looks like the schedules were mostly even except the Pac-12 tended to schedule quite a bit weaker in non-conference, and the SEC East schedule the hardest by far. What's really impressive though is the SEC West going 28-0 against schedules that most divisions would lose 8 games against.

 

[JDjacket]

@iggymcfly were you doing it by current rank for Top 30 or rank at time they played? I find it amusing that the SEC scheduling the hardest by far was a product of the fact that all 4 ACC teams were ranked in the top 30 for rivalry week.

If it was by rank at the time they played if you bump that Top 30 to Top 10, ACC Coastal and it Atlantic will each have 2 that they won. I think the pac 12 is the only other conference that had any wins vs OOC top 10 teams (2).
Not discrediting going 28-0(because that's still pretty absurd), but I think the ACC pulled its weight pretty well this year considering 2 of those top 10 wins came from BC and VT.

 

[iggymcfly]

I was just doing it by betting market power rankings for where the teams are right now:
http://stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/ncaaf.php

 

[Boomergump]

Just because I'm bored, thought I'd look over this claim:



ACC Coastal: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 20-10
ACC Atlantic: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non=conference record of 22-6
Big Ten West: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 20-8
Big Ten East: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 22-6
Pac-12 North: 1 game vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 15-4
Pac-12 South: 0 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 16-2
SEC East: 6 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 20-7
SEC West: 3 games vs. Top 30, overall non-conference record of 28-0

So it looks like the schedules were mostly even except the Pac-12 tended to schedule quite a bit weaker in non-conference, and the SEC East schedule the hardest by far. What's really impressive though is the SEC West going 28-0 against schedules that most divisions would lose 8 games against.

Iggy, I will grant you the K State Allbarn game. My recollection of the game was different than the box score indicates. I remember feeling like KST controlled a lot of the action but blew the game on needless turnovers. I even felt like KSU was ahead most of the game which was not the case.

Even you would have to acknowledge that LSU's last minute, come from behind, victory over Wisconsin is a bit tarnished after a 59-0 thrashing at the hands of OSU, who represents a far inferior conference to the SEC (sarcasm).

Your characterization of the OOC schedules of the SEC West and other leagues is disingenous at best. For example, the ACC Atlantic division scheduled 11 "POWER 5" opponents and a total of 22 from FBS this season. The mighty SEC West, the best division in the history of football, scheduled a mere 4 "POWER 5" teams and a total of 21 FBS teams. I didn't even go beyond that in my analysis. I have no idea what the ACC Coastal or the rest of the divisions did. I give the SEC West teams credit for beating the 4 decent teams they scheduled. They could have lost one or two but didn't. However, the 28-0 record doesn't mean much when you are playing the dregs of Conf USA, Sun Belt, FCS and the like.

When comparing the record of the SEC West, the best division in history remember, against the SEC East (11-4, 73%)and the ACC, the weaklings of CFB (not your words but often implied in today's media landscape) coming in at (4-1, 80%) something has to give.

Given my summation of all these facts, my conclusion is that you are the one who is taking the extreme position. My position has always been that the SEC, especially the west, is very good, but are meerly "over-rated". Your position is that they are the "BEST IN HISTORY". I'll let the rest of the board decide for themselves who is closer to the truth.

 

[JazzyD95]

just looked at the MISS ST depth chart. lots and lots of SRs and JRs starting here.
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/mississippi-state/91211
id personally love to see a TD to waller over Tolando Cleveland

 

[slugboy]

Depends on the model the bookies are using. Sagarin favors Miss State by 10 1/2 on a neutral field: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm.

 

[thwgjacket]

They didn't lose half of their games. They went 5-4 in conference and only lost to one team all year outside the Top 15.




As mmbt0ne pointed out, Auburn controlled the game and deserved to win. On the road against a Top 15 team. Acting like this is anything but a big feather in the cap for a team who went 4-4 in SEC play is ridiculous.




Oh, gotcha! The 4-4 team from the SEC just BARELY beat the 7-1 team from another power conference. Horrors!



Well, I mean they're obviously not gonna win all of their games because that would be ridiculous, especially after getting a record 12 teams bowl eligible, but they're definitely strong favorites to do extremely well this bowl season. Here are the betting lines:

Alabama -9.5 vs. Ohio State
LSU -7.5 vs. Notre Dame
Florida -7 vs. East Carolina
Miss. State -7 vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia -7 vs. Louisville
Auburn -6 vs. Wisconsin
Arkansas -6 vs. Texas
Missouri -6 vs. Minnesota
Tennessee -3.5 vs. Iowa
South Carolina +1 vs. Miami
Ole Miss +3 vs. TCU
Texas A&M +3.5 vs. West Virginia

Despite having far and away the most bowl eligible teams of any conference, getting 12 of their 14 teams in, the SEC is still favored to win 9/12 bowl matchups, and is favored in all 8 games where the line is 6 points or higher.

Far and away the most? The ACC has 12 in bowl games too. Betting lines are just as much about perception as they are about who the better team is. Especially when lines are 7 or below. It's not like their bowl schedule is power-packed either. They play 3 teams in the top 15. Us, TCU and Ohio State who is currently operating with a 3rd string QB. They also have Wisconsin, who just got destroyed by an OSU team with a 3rd string QB and they're playing Clemson with Stoudt at QB. Louisville is also playing with their backup QB.

 

[thwgjacket]

Missouri, the SEC East Champ gets a team that finished 3rd in their division in the Big 10. UGA, SEC East #2 gets a team that finished 3rd in their division in the ACC. It's not like they're all playing super dominant teams.

 

[iggymcfly]

Far and away the most? The ACC has 12 in bowl games too. Betting lines are just as much about perception as they are about who the better team is. Especially when lines are 7 or below. It's not like their bowl schedule is power-packed either. They play 3 teams in the top 15. Us, TCU and Ohio State who is currently operating with a 3rd string QB. They also have Wisconsin, who just got destroyed by an OSU team with a 3rd string QB and they're playing Clemson with Stoudt at QB. Louisville is also playing with their backup QB.

I guess were both wrong. Me with it being far and away the most bowl teams and you with ACC having the same number of bowl bids. ACC actually has 11. But with the ACC, you really see the strain as only 4/11 teams are favored. The fact that the SEC is still favored to win their bowl games even with teams that finished in the bottom half of their conference just shows how strong they are.

Also, in what world does facing 3 Top 15 teams represent a bad bowl slate? The only conference that plays more is the ACC with 4 and we're at least a 7 point underdog in each game.

 

[GTRX7]

I have to point out that Boomer is saying the SEC West is overrated as evidence by the large spreads and iggy' response is that they not overrated because...look at the large spreads. Ha.

I think we just need to let these games play out. I think the truth lies in the middle of the two of your arguments. Hopefully the ACC can have a good showing. That is a lot of key injuries though.

 

[thwgjacket]

I guess were both wrong. Me with it being far and away the most bowl teams and you with ACC having the same number of bowl bids. ACC actually has 11. But with the ACC, you really see the strain as only 4/11 teams are favored. The fact that the SEC is still favored to win their bowl games even with teams that finished in the bottom half of their conference just shows how strong they are.

Also, in what world does facing 3 Top 15 teams represent a bad bowl slate? The only conference that plays more is the ACC with 4 and we're at least a 7 point underdog in each game.

Yea didn't realize they were counting Notre Dame in the ACC slate. Again lines are based on perception as much as the strength of the teams. It's about getting 51% to lose the bet, not picking the winner.
ACC plays 4 top 15 and SEC plays 3 top 15 along with 2 teams starting backup QB's, one of them being a top 15 school. The SEC is 160-135 against P5 teams since '98. While that's solid I wouldn't call it dominating. Means they win a little less than 1.5 games more than they lose each year. That includes a 5-6 record against P5 teams this year and an O-fer in BCS bowls last year. But you know, Vegas lines bruh...lines.
I also love how in an above post you say the SEC West went undefeated against a schedule most leagues would lose 8 games against when you only look at top 30 teams and ignore that MSU played an OOC schedule that included Southern Miss, UAB, UT Martin and South Alabama. The SEC West played teams out of conference with a combined record of 124-129, not including FCS teams. Take those 3 top 30 teams out and it looks bad.

 

[thwgjacket]

FSU played as many P5 teams OOC as Ole Miss, MSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Alabama and LSU combined. The whole SEC West (Just add Auburn) only played one more P5 team OOC than FSU did all year. SEC West-4 FSU-3.

 

[Animal02]

Yea didn't realize they were counting Notre Dame in the ACC slate. Again lines are based on perception as much as the strength of the teams. It's about getting 51% to lose the bet, not picking the winner.
ACC plays 4 top 15 and SEC plays 3 top 15 along with 2 teams starting backup QB's, one of them being a top 15 school. The SEC is 160-135 against P5 teams since '98. While that's solid I wouldn't call it dominating. Means they win a little less than 1.5 games more than they lose each year. That includes a 5-6 record against P5 teams this year and an O-fer in BCS bowls last year. But you know, Vegas lines bruh...lines.
I also love how in an above post you say the SEC West went undefeated against a schedule most leagues would lose 8 games against when you only look at top 30 teams and ignore that MSU played an OOC schedule that included Southern Miss, UAB, UT Martin and South Alabama. The SEC West played teams out of conference with a combined record of 124-129, not including FCS teams. Take those 3 top 30 teams out and it looks bad.

You also have to take bowl games with a grain or two of salt. Bowls are/were about generating local tourism. So match ups can be skewed with that in mind. Do you invite a middle of the road SEC team with a huge traveling fan base against a better team with a small fan base or do you match it against a team that the SEC team will likely win thus encouraging fans to attend? I am not saying that is an outright policy.....but fan attendance is a factor in who bowls invite.