UCF has been a really strong G5 program for over a decade. The 2017 team under Scott Frost with Milton at QB was legitimately a top 10 team (But they'd have gotten stomped in the playoffs IMHO. Auburn was scrappy, but a different team at home that year.) But, under Heupel, they haven't been as explosive.
2020 Tech has more talent. But UCF has a more established system. Although, they lost a ton of production on offense from last year. Their QB is back, but the OL is turning over and their best WR and a top RB are in the NFL.
As mentioned elsewhere, their offense is a system, it's predicated on disrupting the defense with extreme tempo. Their defense was decent last year, but gives up points (the downside of the offense's tempo is the other offense will have a lot of opportunities too.) Their goal is to get in a shootout and out shoot their opponent. (Polar opposite of the 3O.)
If this game were happening on the original schedule and they'd had two games to tune up and Tech had been mauled by Clemson. I'd say the opening line UCF by ~10 was a really good #, based on where these programs are. But, this is their first game, they've had a lot of opt outs, which points to... something. Those guys weren't foregoing the season for the draft. Is there a cultural issue with the team? Depth is important to a team that plans on running that many plays. The no-huddle tempo relies on the offensive players to be on the same page.
I see the game going like this: They come out in tempo and move the ball efficiently, but end a lot of drives short because of busted plays, miscommunication and mistakes. Tech plays aggressive D which pressures their O-Line and makes the QB have to work. Gabriel is a gunslinger, but he's not electric with his feet. The secondary does a decent job of limiting their gains. Nonetheless, they dink and dunk down the field. But they have to slow down because every team I've watched so far this season has looked sloppy in game 1.
On Tech's side, I think 'we' look more like we did in the second half last week. We've broken off a lot of our rust. I think we score on some early drives. They have some hiccups. Tech gets an early lead. They outscore Tech in the second half. The game comes down to whether Tech can hold off their 'comeback bid'. I think it comes down to their last possession: whether that's them running out the clock to hold a lead, scoring to ice the game, or scoring a go-ahead winning points. Tech's D will have a chance to win the game. UCF pulls out the win, but Tech looks competitive against a team that finishes the year undefeated and highly ranked.
